410
FXUS62 KMHX 150906
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
506 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as low pressure lifts to our north. A cold front will
sweep across ENC tonight with high pressure building in behind
it, keeping Thursday dry. Another low pressure system impacts
us this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 345 AM Wed...Unsettled weather pattern prevails over the
southeastern CONUS this morning as heights fall ahead of mid-
level troughing digging into the TN Valley. This feature will
continue its sojourn eastward through the short term period,
with the axis passing to our south late tonight and moving
offshore by daybreak Thursday. At the surface, a weak area of
low pressure was analyzed over far southeastern Virginia lifting
northward, placing ENC in the warm sector with a cold front
just west of the coastal plain, demarcated by a healthy Td
gradient.

Widespread stratus has overspread much of the state with
sufficiently deep low-level moisture in place, and will remain
in place through daybreak. Surface winds will be very light
today (5 kt or less) and the resultant lack of earnest mixing
will preclude any scattering out of ceilings until late this
morning. However, once the sun breaks through and robust heating
begins instability will quickly build (up to 1500-2000 J/kg
SBCAPE) as temperatures climb to the low 80s and dew points
surge to near 70. Model soundings show negligible capping in
place as the mid-level low approaches, and a vort max rotating
around its base will provide the focal point for gradual shower
and thunderstorm development.

The pre-storm environment will be sufficient for a few strong to
severe storms with moderate to strong instability in place and
effective shear of 35-40 kt. Long straight hodographs favor
splitting cells and multi-cluster development with a risk of
damaging winds and hail. Although all inland locales will be in
a favorable environment, NCAR HRRR ensembles and SSCRAM output
point to a local maxima of severe potential along the southern
coast, juxtaposed with the highest axis of deep layer shear. SPC
has the coastal plain in a Slight (Level 2 of 5) risk of severe
thunderstorms, while the rest of the region is in a Marginal
(Level 1 of 5) risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Thu...Mid-level trough will swing across the region
overnight as low pressure lifts farther north off the coast of
the Delmarva Peninsula. The surface cold front, which will have
lifted back north this afternoon, will sweep back across ENC
overnight. The low-level frontal convergence will likely provide
a focal point for continued convective development, but this
will quickly wane overnight as the more stable airmass sweeps
into the area. Low-level moisture will be slow to exit and low
overcast skies are likely for most of the overnight period. Lows
will be a few degrees cooler, dipping back into the low to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 430 AM Wednesday...High pressure builds in Thursday night
into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the
area this weekend. High pressure builds in early next week.

Thursday through Friday...Upper ridging builds in from the
west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic
coast slowly moving eastward. Lowered PoPs to below mentionable
with most guidance now indicating dry conditions and model
soundings showing only a shallow saturated layer above 850mb
and very dry well mixed conditions below that. If any showers do
develop, they will likely only produce virga. Ridging crest
over the area Friday with mainly dry conditions expected but
will see increasing clouds as the next system approaches and
could see an isolated shower move in from the west late in the
day.

Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure
system will impact the region through most of the weekend. A
southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into
the region Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure
moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The
system then transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly
pushes across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the
latter half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there
are differences among the models with the evolution, timing and
track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the
region through much of the period.

Monday and Tuesday...The upper low slowly pulls away from the
area early next week with high pressure building in from the
west with generally dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Thursday/...
As of 150 AM Wed...Mixed bag of sub-VFR flight conditions is
expected to become prevailing IFR after 06z as deep low-level
moisture lingers over the area in very light flow. Shower
activity is quickly departing the Outer Banks and expect
predominantly dry conditions through sunrise tomorrow. Cigs will
be slow to rise tomorrow morning with light southwesterly flow
at 5 kt or less but will reach VFR by midday. However, scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop by mid-
afternoon and pose a threat for all terminals into the evening.
Highest risk for OAJ/EWN is mid-afternoon (18-22z) while for
ISO/OAJ greater risk is late afternoon to evening (20-00z).

Convective activity will wane late Wednesday as cold front
pushes southward across the area. Ceilings are expected to crash
immediately behind this boundary in light northerly flow.
Guidance suggests at least predominantly MVFR cigs but periods
of IFR are very much in play.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 445 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected Thursday through
Friday with high pressure building into the area. Another
low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend
bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 405 AM Wed...Poor boating conditions are in place this
morning as low pressure lifts into far southeastern Virginia and
a weak cold front sits west of the coastal plain. Winds have
fallen substantially from their peak this afternoon, now out of
the southwest at around 10-15 kt. Higher seas persist for
offshore waters, ranging from 5-7 feet across the far northern
waters to 7-9 feet elsewhere. Southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt
will continue for much of today, before veering northerly late
tonight as cold front eventually makes its way across the
waters. The lighter winds will allow seas to gradually fall
through today, but the process will be slow and maintained SCA
headlines for elevated seas into early Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 5 AM Wednesday...Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will
slowly push away from the area Thursday with high pressure
transitioning across the waters on Friday with conditions
expected to remain below Small Craft Criteria. A complex low
pressure system will impact the region Friday night through
Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance
for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through
the weekend but cannot rule out a period of low end SCA mainly
late Saturday/Saturday night. The best opportunity for SCA
conditions will be late in the weekend or early next week as low
pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences
among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure
to follow updates as details come into focus.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/MS