924
FXUS63 KMPX 091718
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1218 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost likely across northwest Wisconsin Thursday night.

- Scattered thunderstorms, a few strong, Friday afternoon across
  eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Above-normal temperatures this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Light showers linger along The Iowa/Minnesota border overnight
from last night`s convection over northwest Iowa/southwest
Minnesota. Development of more isolated showers is expected this
morning across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin as more
upper-level support moves over the area but any rainfall will be
light. Skies will gradually clear out across southern Minnesota
& western Wisconsin this afternoon with temperatures reaching
the mid-60s. Northeast winds will allow for cold air off of Lake
Superior to advect into northwest Wisconsin tonight, with
further cooling of this airmass overnight with clear skies &
winds becoming calm. Frost is likely overnight across northwest
Wisconsin (Barron/Rusk/Chippewa counties) where lows are
forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s, so take action to
protect any sensitive vegetation.

A cold front moves through the area Friday afternoon, and its
passage during peak heating will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon & early evening
from eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Only a few
hundred J/kg of surface- based CAPE is expected ahead of the
front, but shear values of 35-40 kts along the front suggests a
few organized thunderstorms could develop. Forecast soundings
suggest it shouldn`t be too difficult for thunderstorms to mix
down wind gusts of 35-40 kts, & isolated severe wind gusts can`t
be ruled out with the strongest storms. Brief downpours could
lead to rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.5" with any storms. Behind
the front across western Minnesota, northwest winds gusting
over 30 mph & RH values approaching 30% will lead to elevated
fire weather conditions during the afternoon.

The persistent cyclonic flow & cooler temperatures aloft moves
east of the Great lakes over the weekend, with rising heights
over the central CONUS leading to rising temperatures this
weekend into next week. Temperatures in the 80s look likely
Sunday, with highs generally in the mid 70s continuing into next
week. Drier northwest flow aloft persists into early next week,
with possibly some increased rain chances Sunday night as
models depict a shortwave passing through the region. The jet
stream becomes more active midweek, with ensemble guidance
highlighting Wednesday as the next chance for widespread
appreciable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration with MVFR-
worthy stratus earlier this morning continuing to dissipate,
resulting in mid-level fair wx cumulus clouds through the rest
of the daytime hours. High clouds will begin streaming in from
the west overnight, eventually becoming mid-level ceilings late
Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Chances for precip
increase over far eastern MN into western WI around the 18z hour
so have included precip at the tail end of the MSP and WI TAFs
to account for that, with more details coming in later TAFs.
Breezy NE winds through this afternoon will diminish later this
evening and overnight, then picking up from the SW during the
day tomorrow.

KMSP...Main complication will be the incoming rain early Friday
afternoon, potentially slightly earlier than 18z. Any rainfall
is expected to be light but CB/TS/MVFR conditions cannot be
ruled out, however chances for such conditions are too low for
inclusion at this point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 15G25 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind variable 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JPC