730
FXUS63 KMPX 121051
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
551 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today due to low humidity and
marginal winds.

- Small chance for a few weak thunderstorms in southern MN and
western WI this afternoon.

- Mostly sunny the next few days, with a few chances for showers
  and storms later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

GOES-16 satellite imagery shows sporadic cloud cover
across the region this morning with the densest cloud cover
resulting in broken ceilings above the Twin Cities metro. This has
unfortunately put an obstacle towards seeing northern lights again
this morning, even if it is overall a weaker opportunity than last
night. This cloud cover should disperse somewhat as we head towards
daylight, however scattered high level cloud cover likely continues
for much of the day. An occluded upper level low over eastern Canada
will maintain northwesterly flow aloft for Minnesota with a broad
and weak trough over the central CONUS will bring a slim chance for
a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with southern
Minnesota to western Wisconsin the favored targets for now. The SPC
HREF shows a cluster of weak cells forming by the afternoon but no
legitimate chance at severe weather with moisture remaining locked
too far south to access and instability rather weak, with most of
the area remaining dry. The main topics for today will be elevated
fire weather conditions due to low relative humidity as a symptom of
the hottest day of the year thus far with highs in the mid to even
upper 80s possible with efficient boundary layer mixing. This sets
up a rather quiet period of weather through the next few days with
mostly clear skies due to zonal upper level flow and a lack of
shortwave impulses to trigger any showers or storms as we await our
next synoptic forcing arriving Wednesday into Thursday.

Our next chance for showers arrives ahead of an incoming trough with
an arrival time somewhere within Wednesday afternoon to evening via
a weak surface low spinning up within an area of broad/weak CVA
ahead of an incoming trough. Forecast soundings via the GFS/ECMWF
show limited instability to work with as well as fairly weak
forcing, thus aside from a few rumbles we are not currently
expecting any strong thunderstorms. The more likely scenario will be
scattered showers arriving Wednesday afternoon and continuing into
early Thursday as the trough swings through, followed by another
round of generally zonal flow and reliance on shortwaves to produce
any further showers as we head towards next weekend. Ensemble
guidance is fairly split on overall precipitation amounts, thus
forecast confidence after Wednesday is fairly low at the moment
which is to be expected given the setup.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The main concerns today will be winds increasing to 10-15kts
with occasional gusts to 20kts as they shift from 180-210 to
330-360 throughout, as well as Canadian wildfire smoke entering
the region by the afternoon and evening. There is also a slim
chance for a few thunderstorms for southern MN and western WI,
with around a 20 percent chance for MKT/EAU decreasing for sites
more to the north. VFR is expected to continue, however we could
be dealing with some visibility reduction from the smoke if we
mix enough down to the surface.

KMSP...With the addition of the wildfire smoke to the forecast,
the chance for storms this far north is even more unlikely as
the smoke would hinder development of instability. The chance
for -TSRA has decreased from the 06z update which was already
too low to include in the actual TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind N 10-15kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR/MVFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SE 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH