563
FXUS61 KRNK 081725
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
125 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday
when a cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic. Cooler conditions
will arrive for the weekend with the potential for mountain
showers. Warmer air should return during next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) The severe threat is decreasing overall. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible later this evening into Thursday.

2) A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic on Thursday.

Cloud debris from earlier showers and thunderstorms is crossing
over the Appalachian Mountains in association with an outflow
boundary. The 12Z RNK sounding this morning revealed a notable
amount of westerly flow and drier air just above the surface.
Based on the latest high-resolution models, the severe threat
has shifted further south to North Carolina and Tennessee. As a
result, the threat in Virginia and West Virginia has decreased.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may occur in northwest
North Carolina during the afternoon, but the best chances may
not take place until late this evening into tonight as the
outflow boundary is buckled back northward as a warm front due
to an approaching low pressure system in the Plains. Showers and
thunderstorms could reach the mountains but fade before
completely crossing the Blue Ridge overnight. The antecedent
conditions remain rather dry, so any flood threat is marginal.

The cold front from the aforementioned low pressure system will
cross the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. However, the central area of
low pressure should pass to the north over Pennsylvania. Some of
the models indicate the showers and thunderstorms possibly
splitting Virginia and West Virginia during Thursday afternoon,
but the chances will remain in the forecast due to the
dynamical and orographical lift possible along with the warm and
humid air. The wind could also turn breezy from the west during
Thursday as the cold front passes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Chance of storms decreasing on Friday.

2. Temperatures will turn cooler by Friday.

An upper level shortwave on Friday will have its potential
limited by reduced moisture availability in the wake of
Thursday`s frontal passage. There will still be scattered
showers and storms, though the severe risk is much lower.

Temperatures will cool to the 60s and low 70s Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

  - Daily chances for showers
  - Cooler at the end of the week

At upper levels flow becomes more west to northwest as a long
wave through develops over the northeast United States on
Saturday. A short wave coming through the northwest flow will
bring a cold front through the region Saturday night and Sunday.
This will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly in the mountains.

Maximum temperatures through Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal, with a gradual warming trend next week. The
coldest overnight lows will be Friday night. A few of the
typically favored locations may cool into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Wednesday...

High cloud cover left over from storms in the Ohio River Valley
this morning will continue to spread across the Mid Atlantic
through this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected throughout
the remainder of today with a west to southwest breeze possibly
gusting up to 20 knots. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase in the mountains overnight, and ceilings will lower to
MVFR/IFR after midnight. Patchy fog may be possible for BCB,
BLF, and LWB towards early Thursday morning.

Ceilings should rise by midday Thursday to allow all aviation
sites to return to VFR. However, a west to southwest breeze will
pick up again ahead of an approaching cold front, and the
chance of showers and thunderstorms may become more widespread
by Thursday afternoon. Any convective activity should fade after
sunset as the cold front heads eastward towards the coast.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Lingering upslope flow could provide showers and MVFR ceilings
for BLF and LWB on Friday, while the Piedmont remains VFR due to
downslope flow. Cooler weather will arrive for the weekend. Some
upslope mountain showers may occur during late Saturday into
early Sunday. VFR conditions should persist through Monday as
high pressure takes control of the Mid Atlantic.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PW