Text Products for AFD Issued by SLC

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FXUS65 KSLC 140956
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
356 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper low will bring valley rain and mountain snow
to much of northern and central Utah late today through Monday,
along with much cooler temperatures across the region. A drying
and warming trend will follow for the middle to latter portion of
the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...An upper low spinning near the
San Francisco Bay is inducing a dry and mild southerly flow
downstream across the forecast area. A shortwave trough along the
downstream side of this low is lifting across Nevada, with a
trailing low level baroclinic zone lifting through the southern
Great Basin. This feature will continue to lift into the eastern
Great Basin as a dry boundary this morning, stalling out as a
generally north-south oriented feature bisecting the forecast
area by this afternoon.

The upstream low will pivot inland and cross the Sierra today,
before lifting from the southern Great Basin into the Colorado
Plateau region overnight. This wave will induce cyclogenesis along
the stalled boundary overnight, before the low level circulation
lifts into southwest Wyoming by midday Monday. As this occurs,
expect precipitation to fill in along the boundary beginning
early this evening, then increase in coverage overnight. The track
has trended a bit further north, and now focuses precipitation
along the terrain from roughly I-70 on the south, to I-80 on the
northern end through midday Monday. Snow levels will generally
remain in the 6000-6500 foot range through midday Monday, but may
fall as low as 5500 feet in heavier precipitation.

Wrap around moisture along the back side of this low, coupled with
a shortwave trough rotating around the back side of the low, now
looks to spread across northern and central Utah Monday afternoon
and evening, bringing fairly widespread precip along the I-15
corridor and adjacent terrain to the east from roughly Ogden
southward to Cove Ft. Orographic forcing looks favorable although
not overly unstable, as mid level lapse rates are fairly modest,
and this should keep snowfall rates somewhat in check. Snowfall
totals through Monday evening from the Wasatch south to the
Tushars will range from 8 to 14 inches, with locally higher totals
possible in the upper Cottonwoods. Much of this snow will be
falling during the daytime hours Monday, which when combined with
mid-April sun angle may limit the impact on travel. Snow totals
alone support a Winter Weather Advisory, but since the build of
the event holds off until Monday (3rd period) and may be limited
in impact, will hold off on any headlines and allow for another
model run as well as collaboration on potential impacts with
partners.



.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday)...As an upper level system pulls away
from the region, another upper level low will be shifting into
northern Montana and the northern Plains. The two most common
scenarios in the ensemble systems are either a glancing blow to
northern Utah, with a period of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday
afternoon (around 65% of ensemble members) or forcing for
precipitation remaining well north and east of the CWA (35% of
members). Even the wetter, more progressive scenario looks to result
in light showers across mainly the northern mountains.

By Thursday, most guidance shifts into a more zonal flow across the
region, with the potential for isolated showers. Nearly 100% of the
ensemble members suggest upper level ridging will shift into the
Great Basin by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Gusty southerly winds will continue through the
day today, with a cold front shifting winds to the west to northwest
around 00Z. Showers will build into the terminal vicinity near 03Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Gusty southerly winds will
continue across much of the region today, with a cold front crossing
from west to east between 21-03Z. Behind the cold front, expect
showers to develop in most locations, with ceilings largely
remaining above MVFR in valley locations, approaching IFR in
mountain locations above around 7500 feet.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Seaman/Kruse

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
