Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 292350 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
650 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Cold front late this afternoon extending from south of Pierre over
to Sisseton pushing slowly southward. Very unstable air in advance
of it along with no or a weakening cap. With surface convergence
along the frontal boundary, expect storms to develop along the front
into the evening as it moves south. The risk of severe weather is
marginal as the deep layer effective shear is weak. Have in good
chances of storms along the boundary mainly in Northeast SD/West
central MN. Otherwise, the models all show Canadian high pressure
dominating the entire short term as it builds slowly east across the
region through Wednesday night. This will bring dry conditions along
with mostly clear skies and not much for winds. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to the upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Upper level ridge will be centered over the Dakotas on Thursday,
with an increasing pressure gradient as surface high pressure moves
off to the east. Upper ridge pushes east on Friday with flow
becoming more southwesterly. Pressure gradient tightens even more as
southerly flow increases ahead of developing low pressure to the
west. Friday looks to be a windy day with gusty south winds.
Temperatures will be warm as well Thursday and Friday, with highs in
the 80s and low 90s.

Precipitation looks to enter the picture Friday night as the surface
trough moves through the area. Chances will continue right through
the weekend as well as the trough potentially gets hung up a bit
over the eastern CWA, which the 12Z EC suggests. Then, models are
suggesting a stronger wave of low pressure could move northeast into
the area along the stalled out frontal boundary. The EC is showing a
much stronger system, with widespread showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

expect VFR conditions to prevail except near/in thunderstorms.
Will be watching potential for -TSRA/TSRA at the KATY terminal
through this as a cold front passes over that terminal. Have
included VCTS mention for the time being. If heavier TSRA or +TSRA
manages to move over KATY, then there could be some brief MVFR/IFR
conditions.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Dorn



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