232
FXUS63 KABR 162331 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
631 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs Thursday will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

- There is a 30-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
  night through Friday morning. No severe weather is anticipated.

- More unsettled weather returns Sunday into Monday, Tuesday
  night, and again Thursday, with around a 30% chance of showers
  and thunderstorms. Organized severe weather may return Sunday or
  Sunday evening to mainly central SD.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A drier airmass continues to slowly move in. It has resulted in
weakening showers as they shift from central to northeastern SD this
afternoon. Much cooler air has also been able to move in behind the
light steady rain showers, with temperatures currently in the 50s
north of a line from PIR to Ipswich. A look at the latest satellite
imagery and surface map, there were plenty of stratus clouds over
the SD and southern MN along with some shallow cumulus development
over south central SD where clearing had briefly developed. The
surface high at 20Z was located over northwestern ND and southern
Canada. This ridge continues to sink south, with the 500mb zonal
flow being replaced by slight ridging to zonal flow tonight through
Thursday.

The surface high will move across the Dakotas tonight before exiting
across Minnesota Thursday afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s
Thursday as winds shift out of the southeast. The strongest winds
will be over central South Dakota, gusting 20 to near 30 mph. After
dewpoints in the 40s tonight, they will rise back into the 50s
Thursday and into the 60s Friday as the next surface low organizes
over western SD/NE. Showers and a few thunderstorms over north
central SD Thursday evening look to expand across much of the area
by daybreak Friday. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

The main surface low will be across KS/NE Friday night into
Saturday, with another ridge over south central Canada and ND.
Instability will increase over the weekend, with some of the NCAR
medium-range real-time convective hazard forecasts showing the
potential for isolated to scattered severe storms as we move into
Sunday or Sunday night. There`s enough uncertainty at this point to
not get too confident on the potential however, as even the next
surface low doesn`t move into western SD until Monday afternoon.
There is room for lots of change between now and then. Confidence is
higher on the idea of high temperatures rising back into the mid 80s
to mid 90s by Monday and Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The only thing that could interrupt good VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours, under surface high pressure influence, is late
night/early morning radiation fog. Winds may stay up enough,
though, to keep fog from forming. The Glacial Lakes region (KATY)
could produce some fog off all the various lakes, though. Will
watch and see what happens.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...10