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000
FXUS63 KABR 082351 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
551 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THE LIGHT SNOW EAST OF THE
CWA BY 3Z TONIGHT OR SOONER. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. WITH FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW...TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CREATE BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES OF
25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY STARTING AT 6Z. HOWEVER AFTER LOOKING AT THE
CURRENT FORECAST...WILL START THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY/COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AT 6 PM TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS OVER THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 30 MPH. BECAUSE OF THESE
WINDS AND FRESH SNOWFALL...WILL MENTION PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE SISSETON HILLS.

A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BRIEF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE CWA...WITH THE BIGGEST INCREASE OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
DOWN SLOPE WINDS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH EXPECTED BETWEEN 21-0Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 0Z FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN 3-9Z. BUFFER SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATE PEAK GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
FALLING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

MORE LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE
CWA. THE NAM/GFS SHOW SNOW MAINLY FOR THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA AT
BEST. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS FOR NOW HOWEVER.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A 1040 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL KEEP COLD
TEMPS IN PLACE. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND A SFC TROF WILL HELP TO DRAG
IN SOME SLIGHT WAA AHEAD OF IT. AS THE TROF TRACKS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AREAL
COVERAGE IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE DURING THE PERIOD BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE DECREASING THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWFALL IS DEPARTING THE
REGION. BY 06Z...GOOD VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL FOUR
TERMINALS...AND THAT SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY. LIGHT WEST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-
     HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN