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000
FXUS63 KABR 302325 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Current forecast on track and only made minor adjustments to match
up with current conditions. Aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Southerly winds have been gusty today, as the CWA sits in an area of
relatively tight isobars between high pressure to the east and low
pressure west. As alluded to in the previous discussion, would not
be surprised to see a bit of fog across the James River Valley and
west central Minnesota tomorrow morning as winds decrease and
moisture rises, but confidence is somewhat low. Highs again Saturday
will be up to 10 degrees above normal across our central and western
CWA, with closer to seasonal highs in the east due to the
possibility of increased cloudiness during the day. Models have
backed off on winds a bit during the day Saturday as well, but dry
and warm conditions across central South Dakota should still warrant
a high fire danger day.

Conditions continue to warm through the remainder of the short term
on Sunday with 850mb temps up to 19 C across central South Dakota.
Low temperatures will also be mild in the upper 40s to lower 50s
from tonight through Sunday night. Regarding precipitation, have
kept POPs largely out of the forecast as models are consistent in
confining showers and storms across western South Dakota until after
12z Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

The models still show a big change coming in the weather through
next week as a large upper level low pressure area over the
southwest US lifts into our region. Before this occurs, warm and
breezy/windy south winds will bring above normal temperatures to the
cwa for Monday. With the upper level low pressure area kicking into
our region from the southwest, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to spread northeast across the region Monday afternoon and
night. Decent chances of showers are expected to continue across our
region into Wednesday as the upper low moves into Canada. Some
scattered light showers may occur in behind it into Thursday. The
dry slot with the upper low would also give us a break in the
rainfall as it pushes through the region. Otherwise, it will cool
down for Wednesday into Friday with Canadian air pushing in. Expect
highs in the mid 50s to the lower 60s from Wednesday through Friday.
Friday is also expected to be dry across the cwa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the period under southeasterly
winds. These winds should provide enough mixing to keep fog from
forming at KATY early tomorrow morning.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...Lueck
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...SRF