Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 242127

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
127 PM AKDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Excellent agreement with the models forecast upper level features
through Saturday with slight variation on specific upper level
features for the Memorial Holiday weekend. In general the
westerly upper level flow will pull in moisture into Mainland
Alaska with strong moisture transport exceeding 3 standard
deviation for Nome, Kotzebue and Fairbanks resulting in wetter
and cooler period through Thursday. An upper level ridge will
build over Western Alaska on Friday through the weekend. This will
result in warming and drying over the West Coast and Western
Interior, but allowing for chance of daily shower activity
depending on timing of the upper level features for Interior
Alaska through the holiday weekend.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: Dense fog finally cleared up a bit
later than expected across the Arctic Coast this morning.
Anticipate dense fog to return after midnight tonight into mid
morning Wednesday for Barrow. there will be areas of fog around
Nuiqsut and Deadhorse but not as confident that it will get down
to quarter mile visibility. Thus will only issue a Dense Fog
headline for Barrow area. With the stationary front meandering
around the across the North Slope area, the precipitation will
vary across area with mixture of snow and rain or even potential
for freezing rain.

West Coast and Western Interior: West flow will persist into late
Thursday with the surface flow from the southwest persisting
through Thursday. This west flow will pull in decent moisture
with current values precipitable water values near normal, but
exceeding to nearly 3 standard deviations of normal by Wednesday
night and Thursday. This means most areas will see between 0.25 to
0.75 inches of rain through Thursday with higher amounts of
around an inch possible in the Nulato hills and the south slopes
of the Brooks Range. As high pressure builds over Norton Sound
starting Friday, the flow becomes light and variable with warmer
and dry conditions expected over the holiday weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior: Expect isolated showers this
afternoon and evening as an upper level feature moves through the
area. Most of the thunderstorm activity will be suppressed on
Wednesday except for areas along and north of Fort Yukon towards
Arctic Village and completely suppressed on Thursday.
Precipitation chances will increase across on Wednesday night into
Thursday with most areas getting 0.25 to higher amounts of 0.50
inches of rain by Friday within the Upper Chena and Birch Creek
river basins. Expect slightly below normal temperatures through
the week with the cloudy and damp conditions. Through the holiday
weekend expect periodic showers with the higher chances of
precipitation timed with the various upper level features moving
southward around the high pressure system. At this time better
greater chances on Sunday and Tuesday.


.FIRE WEATHER...Humidities are expected to remain moderately high
over the Interior through Wednesday night. A warming and drying
trend is expected to begin on Friday and continue through the
weekend as a strong upper level high pressure builds over the West
Coast, producing a dry north to northwest flow pattern across the
Interior. Thunderstorm activity will be isolated on Wednesday
afternoon and early evening mainly areas along and north of Fort
Yukon towards Arctic Village. No thunderstorm activity is expected
in the Interior from Thursday through the weekend.


.HYDROLOGY...The flood watch continues for the Colville River as
there was an increase in the river water stage overnight. This
likely is a result from the ice upstream of the Umiat gauge moving
downstream of the river. Although recent satellite imagery from
the areal flood extent product shows cloud cover there is still
potential for ice within the channels to move downstream, hence
the flood watch continues. The water stage at Kuparuk River near
Deadhorse still remains near 36 ft as of noon today, but there are
no impacts to the road reported from observer`s. Thus, the flood
advisory was allowed to expire this morning. We will continue to
watch for future impacts as the models vary in the amount of
precipitation for the Brooks range during mid week, with values
ranging from 0.25 to 1.0 inches.


Flood Watch for AKZ203.


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