Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 230945
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 AM AKDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR WAINWRIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY LATE TONIGHT...AND INTO THE NORTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY BY SUN MORNING. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY BY SUN NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK THROUGH
TUE. SOMEWHAT FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD...A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE ARCTIC...INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR TUE
NIGHT AND CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED.

SURFACE...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR ADAK MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BERING SEA OR OUTER BRISTOL BAY BY SUN. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...BUT LOW END
GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE ALASKA RANGE
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND EASTERN
ARCTIC SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST MOVES EASTWARD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AS AN UPPER LOW CENTER APPROACHES BRISTOL BAY.

RAIN LIKELY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND
SOUTHERN WEST COAST AREAS BEGINNING SUN. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW NOW NEAR ADAK MOVE EASTWARD. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
AS MUCH AS 0.25-0.50 INCH IN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS.

BY LATER NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODEL POSITIONS...CURRENT GFS/ECMWF/CANADA RUNS AGREE IN BRINGING
A DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL VORTEX INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTHWEST
OF OUR WESTERN MARINE OFFSHORE FORECAST AREAS. MEAN POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FOR 00Z FRI IS ABOUT
74N/168W. THIS VORTEX WILL BRING COLDER TO THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND
NORTHWEST ALASKA. EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRI.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOCAL SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH DEVELOPING IN AND NEAR
ALASKA RANGE PASSES SAT EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON. MIN RH
IN INTERIOR EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

RF AUG 14



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