Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 041052
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN GOOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
AROUND 48 HOURS THIS RUN. MODELS ARE REALLY HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE
BEYOND THAT...BUT THERE ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN MOVING IT EAST IS
ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER FORECAST WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AS USUAL AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE UNDER FORECAST...SO
WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY.

ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
AND BERING STRAIT BY LATE TONIGHT. 524 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF
BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE
TROUGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH MERGING WITH A 549 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.
THE WHOLE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE THE MARCH EAST TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE ALCAN BORDER
BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY WILL
BE PUSHED OUT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE AREA. A 534 DAM LOW
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE...RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH RIDGING BUILDING EAST OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS
AND SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BE
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST AND TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS FRONT HANGS OVER THE AREA.
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHWEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
PUSH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH SO THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY...BUT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY AS A HIGH OVER
THE ARCTIC BRINGS SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WEST OF DEADHORSE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BUT TURN NORTHERLY BY LATE TODAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM
THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND NORTON SOUND.
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE END OF IT THOUGH AS THE CHANGE IN WINDS
WILL JUST PUSH THE STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND COAST
AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTH...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WARMER TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S FOR THE MOST PART. COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTH AND DRAGS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR WITH IT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS OVER AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE CREST OF THE BROOKS
RANGE TODAY. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
THEN COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ALMOST 15
DEGREES COOLER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN
THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN AS FRONT MOVES TO THE INTERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE ALCAN AND
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY QUIET AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD BRING A FEW FIRES BACK TO LIFE. TODAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER. COOLER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING
STARTING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY COULD
LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME SLIGHT RISES ON THE GAUGES ON THE ARCTIC
RIVERS...BUT NOT MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE MUCH MORE IF
ANY. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN ANY DRAINAGES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SATELLITE...STRATUS VISIBLE ON THE SPORT MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT
04/0707Z ON THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE AND IN THE UPPER KOBUK. SPOTTED A INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE
NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND PRODUCT AT 04/0029Z JUST NORTHEAST OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND THERE IS A LOW LEVEL VORTEX IN THE STRATUS LEAVING
A LITTLE CLEAR HOLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 15


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