Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXAK67 PAJK 030059 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AKDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...A BAND OF RAIN LINGERS OVER THE PANHANDLE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT AND LOOKS TO
REMAIN, NAMELY EAST OF CHATHAM STRAIT, THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
UNTIL THE MID- UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WINDS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT SHIFTED OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING AND
RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT THE REMAINING
RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ALSO STARTED TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. THIS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HELP TO DIMINISH BOTH WINDS
AND SHOWERS.

EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND DECREASING WINDS WILL
CAUSE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME PLACES MAY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD DEPENDING IF THERE ARE FEWER CLOUDS AND MORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING MANY
PLACES ACROSS SE WILL HAVE SUNNY BREAKS. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE KETCHIKAN/WRANGELL/HYDER AREAS THE LONGEST.

USED MAINLY THE GFS22 FOR UPDATES TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE...HOWEVER BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS DETERMINING
EXTENT OF ISOLATED VS SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH MON...PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SE AK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH A MINOR SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP TO
THE N GULF COAST WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MINOR IMPULSES TRACKING
SW-NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WHERE A PRES GRADIENT
WILL BE TIGHTER AS A RESULT OF RIDGING OFFSHORE AND A WEAK THERMAL
LOW OVER THE YUKON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF THU PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION FRI. NAEFS CONTINUE TO SHOW 3-4 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FRI WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP
GREATER THAN AN INCH IN 24 HRS OVER 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST PRECIP...BUT THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE HEAVIER RAINS.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE AND ENSEMBLE SPREADS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. USED GEM/GFS TO
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU AND INCREASED POPS/QPF
FRI...OTHERWISE MAINTAIN INHERITED FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041>043.
&&

$$

FERRIN/BC

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