Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SETTLES
NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINING
IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. TO THE WEST, SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTN.

MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE SE
STATES WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. SW
FLOW/STRONG WAA WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FORECAST ALREADY BEGINNING TO MIX BACK INTO THE MID
60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE
98-103 F RANGE. HIGHS TODAY WL AVG AROUND +1.5 TO +2 ST DEV ABOVE
SEASONAL MEANS...AND WILL APPROACH AND PERHAPS MATCH DAILY MAX
TEMP RECORDS (PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).

AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE WELL-
CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/WARMING
ALOFT. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED A SILENT POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER NE NC ALONG POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST IN
COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP (ALBEIT LOW-END CHANCE) HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO
THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT, SHUNTING THE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.

WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 21Z/5 PM. WHILE PWATS
PROGGED AROUND 1.8 INCHES...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE AT ISO-SCT.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, BUT HELD OUT MENTION FOR NOW. MILD AND MUGGY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WASHES OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WED, AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL AND DOWNSLOPE/WLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON WED AS WEAK
SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN
CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS WEDS AND
THURS...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND THETA-E RIDGE
OVER THE SRN LOCAL AREA.

HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY +1 STD DEV THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD,
GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEG INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING W/ FEW-SCT CU (BASES MNLY 5-7KFT) ACRS
FA...ALONG W/ SSW WNDS AOB 10 KT. NO CONVECTION AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTN...HWVR...FM ABT 00-06Z/03 AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION...COVERAGE XPCD TO BE SCT SO STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE SHRA OR TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WED-FRI AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACRS
NC...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM STILL
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. THERE MAY BE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS BY SAT AS
NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...S/SW FLOW AVERAGES 10-15 KT OR LESS TODAY AS SFC HIGH STAYS ANCHORED
OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MOST PART.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
WED. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF INCREASED WINDS
AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N/NW AS THE FRONT PASSES...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HEADLINES. THIS DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AS WELL AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WED. WINDS SHIFT FROM
N/NW WED MORNING TO THE E/SE LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. WINDS GENLY
SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NIGHT/SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS
CLIMATE...









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