Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
525 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE
PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVR NEW ENGLAND AND A
DISORGANIZED PRES FIELD OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION COINCIDING
WITH A WEAK STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY. ALOFT...NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH
AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS. THE SFC FRNT
WILL SAG S INTO THE CAROLINAS TDA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE FRNT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE CSTS DUE TO
NE FLOW WITH HI PRES BLDG OVR NEW ENGLAND. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX BUT HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL IN SOME AREAS. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 OVR THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE LO-MID 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY (AROUND -1
ST DEV). HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE
RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF
THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER
50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS THU/THU NIGHT
(HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S BEACHES/LOWS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WITH HIGH PRS
BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NEXT
BAND OF SHWRS MOVG SE ALONG I64 CORRIDOR WITH LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDCTG THESE MAKING IT INTO CNTRL VA NEXT SVRL HRS. THUS
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN RIC ERLY THIS MORNING.

NEXT IMPULSE PROGGED TO TRACK SE AFTER 12Z AFFECTING RIC / SBY
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GOOD CONFIDENCE BTWN THE MODELS
OF THIS OCCURRING SO INCLUDED A FEW HRS OF (MVFR) RAIN AT THOSE
SITES. CHALLENGING PART OF FCST WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CIGS DROP
BELOW 1K FT THRU 12Z DUE TO E-NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. FOG NOT THAT
MUCH OF A CHALLENGE AS CIGS ARE.

CIGS BARELY RISE INTO VFR RANGE AS TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF MOISTUTE
ARND THE AREA FOR A BKN SC DECK (3-4K FT) THRU MUCH OF THE FCST
PRD WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING.
OTW...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE ONGOING E-NE WINDS...LATEST
GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE WINDS THUS CREATING SOME DOUBT
WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL START. TOUGHEST CALL WILL BE SOUTHERN CHES
BAY WHERE ONLY MINIMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MEET. MOUTH OF THE BAY
WILL HAVE AN EARLIER START AND LATER FINISH TIME. SEAS (ESPECIALLY
OUT NEAR 20 NM) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES OVR THE
WATERS THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...WENT AHEAD AND
HOISTED SCA HEADLINES FOR CURRITUCK SND SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS SCNDRY
SURGE WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BTWN 15-20 KTS.

FORECAST NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING
(TROPICAL) LOW PROGGED TO TRACK NE BUT REMAIN EAST OF GULF STREAM
WALL. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE MID ATLNTC
BEACH AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES PROGGED TO BUILD TO ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NE FLOW CONTINUES. DESPITE THE PERSISTANT ONSHORE FLOW...LEVELS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1/2 FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

WENT WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT TODAY GIVEN NEARSHORE WAVES
OF 2-3 FT AND A INCREASING NE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR





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