Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 301210
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
810 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Bonnie will linger along the South Carolina
coast this morning, and will slowly track northeast along the
coastal Carolina while weakening further through the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Richmond has reached 9.36" of rainfall for the month of May as of
Midnight EDT, setting a new record for the month. See the climate
section below for more details.

The latest analysis still indicates TD Bonnie located just inland
of Charleston SC. Please continue to refer to discussions/forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center for the track on TD
Bonnie.

Have followed closely to the last few runs of HRRR, which seems to
have a good handle w/ongoing pcpn. Noting area of showers
coincident with cooling cloud tops redeveloping over e NC, along
coastal trough axis, which emanates from the remnant low along
the SC coast. CAMs continue to show that these showers will
continue to lift NNW along the coast this morning, eventually
expanding in areal coverage after 12z this morning, enhanced by
upper divergence provided by RRQ of upper jet.

Will go with likely to categorical POPS over coastal sections
this morning. Additional periods of locally heavy rain are likely
this morning along the coast and just inland (mainly e of i-95).
Meanwhile, pops taper back to high end chc 40-50 pop out west in
the piedmont in expectation of some sct showers, owing to weak
subsidence/low level drying advecting in from the west. QPF
amounts through this evening to avg 1-2" along the coast, w/lesser
amounts farther inland. Highs today once again variable and
clouds/pcpn dependent, but should be held in the mid-upper 70s
along the coast/just inland, reaching the lower 80s well inland
with lesser pcpn expected.

Additional showers expected tonight, with TD Bonnie`s remnants
lifting along the Carolina coast tonight. Areal coverage of
showers once again diminishes late, becoming focused along the
coastal trough over the eastern third of the area. Once again
mild/humid with lows in the 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TD Bonnie (or more likely the remnant low) will continue to very
slowly lift NE along the NC coast Tue/Wed. Continued humid, though
dew pts lower slightly into the mid 60s by Tue. Highs avg in the
upper 70s/lower 80s both Tue-Wed with lows in the lower 60s NW to
the upper 60s SE. Above climo POPS of 40-50% SE and 20-30% NW
persist Mon night-Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model consensus and NHC forecast centers Tropical Depression Bonnie
(or the remnant low) just off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. An
upstream trough and associated cold front approaches from the west.
Will keep mention of chance POPs along the coast, as well the
Piedmont as moisture increases from the west. Expect subsidence over
central VA and hopes for dry conditions, but will keep slight chance
POPs. Expect increasing clouds Thursday night as the approaching
trough finally kicks off the coast in advance of the approaching
upstream trough. Will keep mention of slight chance POPs, but
overall dry conditions expected. The front drops into the forecast
area Friday with increasing chances for showers and
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Latest guidance now in good
agreement with cutting off mid level energy over the Southern
Plains, with the largest height falls over New England. Sensible
weather impacts will be a quicker departure of the front off the
coast Friday night into Saturday than previously forecast. Will keep
mention of chance POPs Saturday, will drying conditions into
Saturday night. Only a slight chance POP across the southeast
forecast area for Sunday as the front stalls over the Carolinas in
westerly flow aloft. Sky generally partly cloudy Sunday.

Highs in the low to mid 80`s Thursday and Friday cool only a few
degrees into the upper 70`s to low 80`s Saturday and Sunday. Lows
in the 60`s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to result in poor aviation
conditions across the region. Scattered to numerous showers
persist along the coast with low stratus and fog from the Bay to
the Piedmont. Some heavier showers are producing IFR visibilities. Expect
MVFR/IFR conditions to persist through mid-morning with winds at
or below 10 kt. Guidance remains rather pessimistic through the
afternoon, with IFR for all. However, BUFR soundings and late May
climatology indicate a mild improvement to MVFR (decks 1-2k ft
AGL) late morning through the afternoon. Scattered to numerous
showers expected all TAF sites through mid to late afternoon
before pushing off the coast late today. Winds remain at or below
10 kt. Another round of IFR conditions is expected tonight.

Bonnie (or the remnant low) slowly lifts northward along/near the
Carolina coasts through mid-week, resulting in additional chances
for showers and MVFR/IFR conditions. A cold front approaches the
region Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Depression Bonnie meanders along the Carolina coasts
today through Tue night and then slowly tracks ne twd the Mid
Atlantic on Wed...finally locating just off the coast Wed
night. The remnants of Bonnie are expected to continue tracking
ne Thu...getting pushed out to sea by an approaching cold front,
which should cross the region on Fri.

Ongoing shower activity will remain focused over the waters
today/tonight with thunderstorms possible this aftn/evening.
SE winds today...becoming more ne-e late tonight through Thu.
Speeds generally aob 15kt. Seas 3-4ft in persistent onshore
swell, but may build to 4-5ft Wed into Thu evening as the
remnants of TD Bonnie track just off the Mid Atlantic coast
during this timeframe. Waves 1-2ft with up to 3ft possible at
times in the mouth of Ches Bay due to the onshore swell. A cold
front approaches the region on Thu...bringing a brief period of
dry conditions and slightly more breezy winds to the waters.
This front is expected to cross the waters late Fri night into
Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through Midnight has
reached 9.36", setting a new record for the month of May at RIC.
Additional rainfall is expected today and tomorrow, which could
push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would
only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month
prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08").

     Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond...

 1. 9.36" 2016 (Through Midnight EDT)
 2. 9.13" 1889
 3. 8.98" 1873
 4. 8.87" 1972
 5. 8.67" 1886
 6. 8.59" 2003

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...



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