Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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586
FXUS61 KAKQ 212104
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
404 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure tracks northeast off the Mid Atlantic coast
late tonight and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a cold front crosses the
area late tonight then moves off the coast Wednesday morning.
High pressure builds back into the region Wednesday afternoon
through Friday as low pressure lingers off the southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Latest MSAS has a trof along the Carolina coast with low pressure
developing east of Jacksonville, Fla. Meanwhile, a cold front was
moving east across the upr mid west. 12Z models continue to struggle
with the moisture fields tonight as the low moves ne along the Mid
Atlantic coast and cold front approaching from the west. Went with a
model blend where the best lift progged along and east of the I95
corridor between 06Z-12Z.

Given the trends of the latest high res models, kept it dry through
00Z, with isltd pops across NC zones through 03Z. A ribbon of
moisture/lift progged to quickly ride NE after 03Z resulting in
pcpn breaking out/developing by late evening then pushing east
through the overnight hours. Still only expecting QPF amounts
less than one quarter inch. However, confidence high enough that
at least some measurable pcpn falls across the east. Thus,
increased pops to likely/categorical from the I95 corridor on
east, chc pops across the west. Lows mid 40s NW to mid 50s ssern
coast areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pres tracks across the VACAPES early Wed with the cold front
moving offshore around 12Z. Any lingering shwrs progged to move
offshore around 15Z. Column begins to dry out west to east Wed
as high pres builds in from the west. Mstly sunny west, becoming
mstly sunny east. Lagging CAA and sunshine allows temps to rise
into the mid 50s north to lwr 60s south.

High pressure approaches from the west Wed night, then becomes
centered across the region Thurs through Fri. This high keeps the
moisture coming off of Fla mainly south of HAT Thurs before moving
farther offshore Thurs night and Fri. Mostly clr to pt cldy Wed
nite. Lows upr 20s-upr 30s. Pt to mstly sunny Thurs. Highs mid 40s
north-lwr 50s south. Mstly clr Thu night. Lows upr 20s-upr 30s.
Mstly sunny and a little milder Fri. Highs lwr-mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next cold front crosses the area late Sat. Not much in the way
of moisture to work with but will carry slght chc pops with it Sat
night per a GFS soln. ECMWF suggests a dry fropa. Highs in the upr
50s-lwr 60s. Lows in the mid 30s-lwr 40s.

Dry and colder early next week as a 1025mb Canadian high slowly
moves se across the region. Highs Sun mid 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Sun
night mid 20s-lwr 30s. Coldest day Mon with highs low to mid 40s.
Lows Mon night mid 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Tue in the upr 40s-lwr 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions to start the forecast period as high/mid level
clouds increase through 00Z. Latest guidance suggests CIGs
continue to lower (but still remain avove 3k FT) across the
region this evening with pcpn holding off until 03Z. Moisture
ahead of a cold front will combine with low pressure moving
ne along the coast to produce MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in shwrs between
06Z-14Z, pushing offshore around 15Z. Some of the guidance is
showing Lcl IFR CIGS around 12Z but confidence not high enough
that will occur. Drying of the column will result in decreasing
clouds through the day with all TAF sites becoming VFR by 18Z.
The SSW winds today at 10-15kts shift to the NNW behind the cold
frontal passage Wed morning.

OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions return for the rest of the week as high pressure
builds into the region from the west.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will move farther out to sea tonight. Meanwhile,
weak low pressure will track northeast just off the coast
tonight into Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front. These
systems push out to sea Wednesday afternoon. High pressure
builds back into the area for the end of the week.

Have hoisted SCA`s for all the waters except the Rappahannock
River, York River, and the upper James River. Southerly winds
mainly 5-15 kt (except 15-20 kt over nrn two coastal waters)
this evening into late tonight, will become WNW 5-15 kt early
Wed morning, then become NW or N and increase to 15-25 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt for Wed aftn into Wed night. Waves will build
to 3-4 ft in the Ches Bay, and seas will build to 4-6 ft.

N winds will diminish Wed night into Thu morning, as cool high
pressure builds into the region. Sub-SCA conditions then
expected Thanksgiving Day and Fri with high pressure nearby.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX remains down. Parts are on order and are expected to arrive Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday
     for ANZ633-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
     for ANZ630>632-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday
     for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG
EQUIPMENT...AKQ



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