Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 020120
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
920 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER INTO THE REGION FM THE N
OVRNGT...SOME INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR. LATE THIS
EVENG...RDR INDICATED SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVNG EWRD INTO SE MD
JUST N OF DORCHESTER COUNTY. WHILE...OTHER SCTD SHOWERS AND MAYBE
AN ISLTD TSTM WERE MOVNG EWRD THRU SW VA AND N CNTRL NC. SO...HAVE
A 30% POP OVR NRN PORTIONS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHR THRU MIDNGT...AND
A SLGT CHC (20%) POP OVR THE REMAINDER OF NRN AND WRN SECTIONS.
OTHERWISE...BECMG PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT WITH LO TEMPS IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-40% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-60% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO ~60-70% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN CONCERT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT ISSUING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP VERIFIES BY LATER THU...LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT THU
THROUGH FRI AS THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SAT AFTN AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 F NW...TO
THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.

PATTERN A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SAT AS THE FRONT PROGGED TO SAG A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN...BUT POPS STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE THE
TYPICAL CLIMO OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
STORMS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS ON SAT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EAST COAST KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND EXTENDED.

WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE
DISTURBANCE RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.
HIGHS SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON THROUGH WED. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AT RIC AND SBY. MOST OF THE PCPN THURSDAY WILL
ARRIVE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION.

HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS AT SBY. A FEW
HOURS OF IFR VSBYS ARE INCLUDED NEAR SUNRISE AS FORECAST BY BOTH MOS
FORECASTS. THIS OCCURS NEAR THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY S TO SW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE BECOME NW TO N BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR HAMPTON ROADS.
WINDS BECOME VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN S TO SW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE NC WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT
AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-
SCA CONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT WILL
ALSO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS REDUCING VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE 2015 CLIMATE:

AT NORFOLK:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 78.7 F RANKS AS THE 7TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
*TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 8.34" RANKS AS 5TH WETTEST ON RECORD.

AT RICHMOND:
*AVG TEMPERATURE OF 77.92 F RANKS AS THE 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.05" DID NOT ATTAIN A TOP 10 RANKING AT
RIC AIRPORT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE METRO AREA...RECEIVED IN
EXCESS OF 10.00 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LSA/JAO
CLIMATE...AKQ



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