Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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208
FXUS61 KAKQ 012323
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
723 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...THEN
STALL OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN ASSCTD WITH EARLIER S/W HAS MOVED OFFSHORE
WITH THE FA IN A PCPN "LULL" DUE TO WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHID THE
DEPARTING S/W. ALTHOUGH NO PCPN IS CRNTLY ON RADAR...KEPT THE
SLGHT CHC POPS IN OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR ANYTHING THAT MIGHT POP
UP GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LVL MSTR.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CRNTLY MOVG ACROSS
W VA AND THE VA MTS. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES EAST FROM THE MTS AFTER 02Z THEN EXPANDS AS IT
DRIFTS ESE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN H85
WARM FRNTL BNDRY. BEEFED UP THE GRIDS A BIT EXPECTING SHWRS/TSTRMS
TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN CNTYS BTWN 03-06Z THEN DRIFTING SE WHILE
WEAKENING A BIT BTWN 06-10Z. WENT AHEAD AND ADDRESSED THIS IN AN
UPDATED HWO.

BULK OF PRECIP LOOKS TO SHIFT TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. LOWS 60-65 F ACRS MOST AREAS...IN THE 50S ACRS THE ERN
SHORE (WHERE READINGS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT).
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO FAVOR STRATUS MORE THAN FOG BUT DO THINK
THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS...JUST DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AND SOME SUNSHINE
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN...AS SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON
MON. THE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FM THE NW HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND SLOWER...AND WILL GENLY HAVE A DRY FCST UNTIL LATE AFTN AS
FORCING WILL BE WEAK DESPITE WARMING TEMPS AND DEW PTS RISING INTO
THE 60S. BECOMING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...AND
THEN RAMP POPS UP TO CHC FROM 19-22Z...AND LIKELY INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. HIGHS GENLY 80-85
F...THOUGH 70S NR THE CST AND ERN SHORE.

UPR LVL LO PRES EXITING THE MS VLY RESULTS IN INCRSG MOISTURE INTO
THE MDATLC STATES BEGINNING MON EVE. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF
MOISTURE XPCD TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWS IT`S PROGRESSION
MON NGT/TUE. THIS DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SW FLOW ALOFT. CDFNT RMNS SLO TO PUSH TO THE CST THROUGH TUE
EVENING. WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS MON NGT INTO
TUE AFTN. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATHER THAN
WIND/HAIL THOUGH THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WILL
INCLUDE AT CHC TSTM MON NGT/TUE MRNG ALL AREAS...THEN ONLY ACRS
FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE ARND 60F
NW TO THE M60S SE. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE LWR-MID 70S N/CENTRAL TO
UPPER 70S S. COOLER WITH DIMINISHING CHC FOR PRECIP WED...THOUGH
WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ALONG WITH PTLY-MCDY
SKIES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SETTLES SOUTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LINGERS NEAR THE COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOST PERIODS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S EXCEPT RANGING
INTO THE UPR 70S ACROSS SRN VA AND NE NC ON SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS ARE INDICATED NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGE FROM 50 TO 55
EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPR 40S INLAND RURAL AREAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH SCT SHRAS.
INCLUDED VCTS AS WELL FOR ORF/PHF/ECG WITH SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
PRESENT. LO CIGS CONTINUE THIS EVENG AND LIKELY LOWER OVRNGT FOR
NRN TERMINALS WITH A WARM/STATIONARY FRNT TO THE S. OTWS...SLY
FLOW CONTINUES WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRNT
WELL OFF TO THE W. SHOWER CHANCES AND LO CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRNT DROPPING INTO THE AREA ON TUE. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF PCPN EVERY DAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA ALONG WITH VARIOUS
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES IS RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES. THE WINDS WERE TRENDING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME S/SW ON MONDAY.

A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT. WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS
BUILDING IN THIS AREA BASED ON A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD BUT
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES INTACT.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE
ARE NO SPECIFIC PROJECTIONS FOR HEADLINES BEYOND MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...LSA



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