Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
151 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK SHEAR BNDRY ALOFT AND A MYRIAD OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS EVIDENT
ON SAT/RADAR ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PULSE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS WANED
AS EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE CUT POPS TO 20% (MAINLY NW
PIEDMONT) OR LESS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT. BRIEF
CLEARING EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. CLOUD COVER
AVERAGES OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS
65-70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR PD OF SUMMER-LIKE WX TO CONT THROUGH THE WKND. WK SFC HI PRES
SLIDES E ACRS NEW ENG FRI. MDLS SHOW A SLGT DROP IN DEWPTS ACRS
THE FA BEGINNING FRI AS HI PRES JUST OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SLGTLY
BUILD WWD DURING THE DAY. SO FOCUS OF HIGHER POPS (30-40%) NW 1/2
OF FA WITH ONLY 10-20% POPS ELSW. BY SAT...CDFNT PUSHES SE THROUGH
THE OH VLY...RMNG FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
THE WX HERE. WILL KEEP CONDS WARM W/ VRB CLDS/PCLDY WNW AND MNLY
SKC TWD THE CST. POPS 20% POP INLAND...10% AT THE CST.

CDFNT FM THE NW CONTS TO SLOLY APPROACH SUN. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
BE P/MSNY. WILL INCRS POPS TO 40-60% FAR NNW PORTIONS OF THE FA
FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS...TAPERING TO 10% IN FAR SE VA AND NE NC. THE
BULK OF PCPN XPCD TO BE ALG AND BEHIND THE FNT (AND THAT IS NOT
LIKELY UNTIL LT SUN).

HI TEMPS FRI IN THE M/U80S INLAND...70S AT THE CST. LO TEMPS FRI
NGT M/U60S. HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN FM THE U80S TO ARND 90F
INLAND...70S TO L80S AT THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID/UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 12Z/28 GFS/ECMWF EACH INDICATE THE TROUGH
CLOSES OFF IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING W. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL
DIG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND PUSH
INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF DOES STILL
PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WILL NUDGE INTO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING RETURNS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OFFSHORE. POPS AVERAGE 30-50% SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...THEN
TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NNE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
70S N...TO LOW 80S S. COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW. CURRENTLY WILL FORECAST HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S N TO NEAR 80 S...BUT THESE VALUES COULD BE COOLER
DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND PCPN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
CALM-LIGHT S WIND AOB 5 KT WILL PERSIST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN A FEW-SCT DECK AROUND 5K FT AGL...WITH SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL THRU 12Z. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF SE VA (AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL)...BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG AT THE TAF SITES. SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500
FT AGL POSSIBLE 10-12Z KRIC/KSBY.

FOR TODAY...A SE WIND OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WELL OFFSHORE. SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-5K FT AGL EXPECTED.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA...BUT TAF SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.

UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRI-
SAT. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXPECTED SUN-MON AS A COLD FRONT
REACHES...AND THEN STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES JUST N OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WASHES OUT FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15KT
THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH TO 5-10KT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SSW WIND OF 10-15KT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH A SOLID 15KT POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. A 10-15KT SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD CONTINUE
SUNDAY BEFORE THE FLOW WEAKENS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING NE FLOW
AND BUILDING SEAS/WAVES WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...AJZ


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