Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 051103
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
603 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE GUY
TAF SITE THIS MORNING...SO WILL NOT MENTION THEM IN THE FORECAST. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT THE AMA TAF SITE. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A BUILDING MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST AND BY THE WEEKEND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES ON ITS NORTHWEST PERIPHERY WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION. THE PATTERN SEEN SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER OF TERRAIN
INDUCED CONVECTION JUST TO OUR WEST DRIFTING EAST AUGMENTED BY WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW AND PEAKING WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL RE-
EMERGE BY FRIDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING.
FROM THEN ONWARD EACH EVENING THROUGH MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS NOT PERFORMED PARTICULARLY WELL IN
THE WARMEST PERIODS OF THIS SUMMER GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
CONDITIONS. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTHEAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE MAY FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA REDUCING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17


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