Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 240553

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1253 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

For the 06z TAFs...
Thunderstorms over northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado are
not expected to impact any of our terminals overnight.  Expecting
overnight stratus development again, although extent is not
expected to be as significant as Tuesday night/Wednesday morning,
owing to greater amount of high clouds overhead at this time.
Will monitor and amend as necessary. Otherwise, VFR conditions
should resume by 16z Thursday.  Scattered afternoon thunderstorms
over western parts of forecast area may impact DHT between 18z
Thursday and 00z Friday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 648 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

Focus of this TAF set is on fog/low cloud chances at KAMA and
KDHT tomorrow morning. Confidence is not as high as it was for
this morning`s low clouds/fog, but do think there will be some
patchy areas of MVFR and possibly IFR cigs/vsbys from roughly 09Z-
15Z Wed. Have kept the TAFs on the optimistic MVFR side for now,
but some brief IFR conditions are quite possible and
amendments/future issuances will probably have to address this.
Winds will be out of the SSE primarily and generally light. KDHT
could see a storm at the tail end of the TAF period, but chances
are way too low to include at this far out issuance.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

Significant changes in the short term, as we have backed off quite
a bit on the POPS for the next couple of days. While the
panhandles still remain under a northwest flow aloft, a 700mb weak
high pressure system will shift over the central OK/KS border and
return flow south of the high will funnel in drier from the
eastern Panhandles and stretch westward. The western Panhandles
may still be in a marginal threat for excessive rainfall tomorrow
as the dry/moist boundary seems to be set up near the NM/TX state
line. As this high shifts to the east Thursday into Friday flow
will become more southerly and may even pick up some remnant
moisture of current Tropical Depression Harvey (forecast to become
at least a Tropical Storm). This will likely only impact the far
southeast counties of the Texas Panhandles, as PWAT values start
to climb close to 1.75" by Friday. As a result of this
thunderstorm chances will return to the Panhandles Friday, with
lesser chances to the north.

Four corners high will continue to rebuild to the west of us and
it looks as if drier north flow will attempt to dominate the rest
of the extended. Thunderstorm chances continue to diminish each
day from north to south, and by Sunday afternoon through Tuesday
and storms that occur may be just isolated in nature and the
threat area, while to far out to tell, may only be over a few
counties as opposed to the entire Panhandles.

While Harvey will be a slow moving tropical system and looks to
have significant impacts to the TX Gulf Coast, it looks like the
upper level four corners high will help suppress any attempts for
what`s left of the system to make it to the Panhandles. If you are
curious to see what areas the National Hurricane Center projects
Harvey to impact in Texas, just go to and
click on Harvey to see their forecast.


Low overcast/broken ceilings continue to be the theme today.
Conditions should eventually improve to VFR later this afternoon.
However, models are suggesting MVFR clouds again later during the
overnight hours tonight. There could be some fog around as well.
There is also the small chance for thunderstorms to impact the
terminals, but it looks best for KDHT at this time. That being
said, left this out for now because confidence is too low this
will happen. If it does happen, it could be between 11Z and 14Z
timeframe, so look for this to be in possible future TAFs. KAMA
could be mentioned as well.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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