Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 031133
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF ANY
CONVECTION. BRIEF...LOCALIZED IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL LATE MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO
15KTS AND MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SPOTTY ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS TSTMS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD
TO SCT TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND
NERN NM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO OUR FCST AREA. ALSO...THERE
COULD BE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AS WELL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED FOR
THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THIS FCST PCKG.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLD TSTMS SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
IT APPEARS MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DITTO FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND WERE
ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EWD TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY FROM NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02





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