Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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136
FXUS64 KAMA 292348
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
648 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Intervals of
light rain and low bkn/ovc ceilings throughout the TAF period may
produce MVFR conditions at times. Although not mentioned in the TAFs,
ceilings at times may reach MVFR criteria. The first few hours of the
TAF period for KAMA shows a TEMPO group for thunderstorms as latest
observations show some thunderstorms moving northwest towards KAMA.
Otherwise, PROB30 group was mentioned for all TAF sites around 18Z
Tuesday when the next chance of some thunderstorms may occur at all
TAF sites. The chances of thunderstorms start around 18Z and last
through the end of the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Subtropical moisture will continue to be brought northward across
the panhandles between an upper level low to our northwest and a
ridge of high pressure to our east through at mid week.  A ridge of
high pressure will build over the northern rockies by Tuesday and
then it will move into the northern plains by Wednesday which will
keep the upper level low pretty much parked over Colorado. By
Wednesday and Thursday the upper level low will start to diminish
and sink southward toward the panhandles as it shears out. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue to be a fairly good bet from tonight
through Thursday given the lift with the upper level low and the
subtropical moisture. Still think there could be at least slight
chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday through next weekend
even with the upper level low out of the picture.  The flow aloft
becomes increasingly southwest ahead of an upper level trough moving
into the northwest U.S. and this flow may bring several upper level
short wave troughs with it which could help to produce showers and
thunderstorms.

High temperatures will be generally below normal through much of the
week with highs getting back to around climo by the weekend as the
chances of rain diminish some.

HYDROLOGY...
Will keep the Flood Watch going for the central and eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle and the north central and eastern Texas Panhandle. Heavy
rain producing thunderstorms will be possible across this area late
this afternoon into the early part of the evening, but then there
may be a lull in the activity late tonight with the loss of daytime
heating. Thunderstorms with heavy rain are then expected to develop
again on Tuesday in the watch area.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for the following zones:
     Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for the following zones:
     Beaver...Texas.


&&

$$

29/11



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