Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 202042
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
342 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE HAS STARTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AMA CWA. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM HAS MAINTAINED BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS AND SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NM. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...HOT TEMPS WELL IN THE 90S WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
SHOULD END LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THURSDAY...LEAVING THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEARBY AND STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING CAN RESULT IN STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. LIKE TODAY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND WIND SHEAR WILL
NEGATE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STILL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DAILY LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL EXIST EVERY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY. THE MAIN LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH DETAILS IN THIS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
OCCURS THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE MONDAY. THE LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND
MIDWEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
CURRENTLY EXISTS ON IF THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH WELCOME COOL
DOWN AND AN UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                93  68  93  67  91 /  10  20  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  99  71 102  71  99 /   5  10  20  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              94  65  95  65  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  97  72  98  73  95 /  10  20  20  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              97  68  96  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  93  68  93  66  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               95  70  96  69  95 /   5  10  20  20  10
DALHART TX                 95  64  95  64  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  98  69  99  68  95 /  10  20  20  20  10
HEREFORD TX                93  66  92  66  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                96  73  97  72  98 /   0  10  20  20  10
PAMPA TX                   93  69  94  69  93 /   5  10  20  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                94  71  96  71  96 /   0  10  20  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              97  72  98  71  99 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05





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