Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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393
FXUS64 KAMA 221747
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1247 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period.

Main thing will be the increase in wind speeds tomorrow afternoon.
Otherwise, there could be some high clouds around today but
nothing to impact the terminals in a categorical aspect.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 632 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR cigs/vsbys expected through period with mostly cloud free
conditions. Light winds will be northwesterly but become
southwesterly at 10-15 knots this afternoon. Winds will decrease
again Sunday night.

Ward

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 504 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
For this morning, the current Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory
highlights will remain intact until expiration time based on
latest sfc observations. Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated
through Wednesday night as an upper level ridge of high pressure
prevails across the wrn states while general upper level troffing
develops over the ern states. The next cold front will move
through the OK and TX Panhandles Monday with little fanfare other
than to bring cooler temperatures Tuesday. Warmer weather is then
slated to return for Wednesday.

Medium range models are in slightly better agreement handling the
second, much stronger cold front and its associated sharp upper
level trof for late this week. The 00Z ECMWF remains the coldest
overall, slowest, and still relatively the wettest although not as
wet compared to 24 hours ago. It has abandoned the four corners
upper level low solution, however. The 00Z GFS is doing better
with the cold air plunge compared to 24 hours ago while the 00Z
Canadian model is warmest. Both the 00Z GFS and Canadian are
driest in general. Have continued to go with a model consensus
approach with a lean towards a bit colder solution overall with
slgt chc pops nwrn zones Thursday night and western half of the
area Friday morning. If 00Z ECMWF and GFS verify with respect to
strength of cold airmass invading Thursday night and Friday, most
of the fcst area may experience a killing freeze late Friday night
and Saturday morning. These details will be refined further as
the event gets closer in time.

Andrade

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

99/99



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