Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
231 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

The regional weather for the rest of the work week will focus on
an upper level low over western Canada forecast to move into the
Northern Plains. This will set the stage for increasing chances
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. However limited
available moisture will keep rainfall to scattered light amounts.

A weak h500 shortwave trough moving through Montana with an
associated surface low is currently supporting scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across eastern Montana. These may
diminish somewhat after peak heating and as they move into western
North Dakota as depicted by the HRRR this evening.

A better scenario for showers and scattered thunderstorms will
form Thursday as a lobe of vorticity moves into the region. The
Superblend guidance gives 30 to 50 POPs across the region
although once again precipitation amounts will be hit and miss and
generally light.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

The extended forecast will initially be impacted by the cool h500
upper low over the Northern Plains Friday. However Global models
are trending toward a broad warm and dry ridging pattern which
will herald warm and dry weather for the start of July. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the upper low
will exit the region on Friday, and will be followed by a long
and steady warming trend. Highs Friday will be in the 60s and
lower 70s. By early next week and the Fourth of July highs will be
well into the 80s to lower and even mid 90s. No significant
precipitation is expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Low pressure over eastern North Dakota will maintain MVFR
conditions at KJMS for a few hours this afternoon before becoming
VFR. Otherwise all TAF sites VFR.




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