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000
FXUS63 KBIS 050356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. WITH IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES...SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IS CURRENTLY GETTING ABSORBED BY A STRONGER ARCTIC LOW
SAGGING SOUTH OVER SASKATCHEWAN. EVEN THOUGH SNOW IS BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...GRADIENT FLOW IS GENERATING
PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT WEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL UNTIL 6 PM CST. WILL ALSO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS MUCH STRONGER WIND AND BLOWING SNOW
IS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT. THE SNOW AND WIND INTENSITY SHOULD
DIMINISH OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL ARCTIC LOW WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD THE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND
25 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN SPREAD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE 30S BELOW ZERO FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY IN TIME AS ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING HIGHLIGHTS. NO BIG CHANGES IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AFTER NEXT TUESDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO  UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND
WITH PERSISTENCE FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT ...ARCTIC AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH EXTENDING FROM ALBERTA TO MONTANA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. THERE
IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING A DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20 BELOW
ZERO IN THE WEST TO AROUND 15 BELOW IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD REACH ONLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT FOR THE WHOLE REGION WITH LOWS FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW
ZERO. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR NOW A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(TONIGHT) AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MEANS THAT WIND
CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 25-40 BELOW ZERO RANGE FOR MOST OR ALL
OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

WE DO SEE A VERY SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PLUNGE TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO...WITH HIGHS MONDAY
EXPECTED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO NIGHT. WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THIS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

MODELS DO HINT AT MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK...BUT THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DIVERGING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

KMOT/KDIK/KBIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE AT
KJMS...WHERE STRONG WINDS AND IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND 06Z BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>021-031>034-040>044.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ022-023-025-
035>037-045>048-050-051.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-037-
048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV