Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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830
FXUS63 KBIS 090920
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
320 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Surface analysis early this morning places high pressure across
the state. This has brought light winds to western and central
North Dakota along with frigid temperatures. The tricky part has
been clouds which continue to move in and out of areas this
morning. Any clearing allows temperatures to fall quickly, while
spots under the clouds are not quite as cold. This has impacted
wind chills, with some locations easily hitting criteria, while
some spots have not. Due to the transient nature of the clouds,
temperatures could easily fall more this morning, so plan to keep
the entire advisory in place.

Temperatures will struggle to recover today with many areas
remaining below zero for highs. It will be cold again tonight, and
clouds will likely again play a role in how quickly temperatures
drop. Wind chills could again approach advisory levels, but will
take the headlines one at a time and defer to later shifts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The wave will bring increasing chances for snow Saturday which
linger into Sunday. After collaboration with surrounding offices,
opted to boost the model blended pops a little to show an area of
likely pops moving across the state from west to east. This
appears to be a high pop, but lower qpf type event. Have generally
gone with snowfall totals in the 1 to 3 inch range.

Frigid temperatures look to be the main story next week with small
snow chances from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Mvfr/ifr cigs until 18z-20z Friday will be the main aviation hazard.
The latest satellite imagery and surface observations show an area
of stratus straddling the Missouri River. This will likely expand
overnight through Friday morning, eventually resulting in all
terminals to deteriorate from vfr to mvfr/ifr cigs. KBIS begins the
taf period in a solid mvfr status and is expected to have some
fluctuations into ifr and back to mvfr through 19z Friday. Cigs are
expected to return to vfr after 20z Friday at all terminals.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS



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