Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 222142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. RAIN IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST. AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA








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