


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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225 FXUS63 KBIS 160540 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of light showers will continue across parts of western and south central North Dakota through Wednesday afternoon. - Well below average temperatures through Thursday, with near- record cold highs in the 60s on Wednesday. - Dry Wednesday night and Thursday, then medium chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday, and again late Saturday through Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Limited updates needed at this time. Showers will start to enter into southwestern North Dakota tonight, and slowly spread across the south on Wednesday. Cool temperatures will also be found for Wednesday. Overall the forecast remains on track with little updates needed. UPDATE Issued at 1005 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Forecast adjustments for this update were mainly to incorporate observed and recent model trends for showers and sky cover. The drier air advecting in from the northeast has had a greater impact than expected, with a majority of north central North Dakota temporarily under a mostly clear sky. Do expect clouds to fill back in from the south and west through the night. The dry air also extinguished light showers trying to spread across southwest and south central North Dakota earlier this evening. But the stronger forcing soon arriving from Montana should sustain showers into western and eventually south central North Dakota later tonight into Wednesday morning. Did add a low probability of thunder to southwest North Dakota later tonight given upstream trends, but instability greatly diminishes on this side of the Montana border. UPDATE Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 A few lingering showers associated with the initial shortwave will soon be exiting the southern James River Valley to the east. Central parts of the state are experiencing a dry period ahead of the next batch of light showers expanding eastward from Montana. Recent model guidance shows these showers dissipating this evening ahead of a stronger shortwave that should bring more widespread and persistent showers into parts of western and central North Dakota late tonight into Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Currently a small shortwave trough is sitting in central North Dakota, with showers and a few thunderstorms on its southern and eastern cyclonic flow sides. A slight surface high in the northern part of the state is keeping the majority of the showers in the south. These showers are mostly staying south of the Interstate. Another shortwave trough and low is moving moving east through western Montana. On the positive vorticity advection side of that trough more showers have formed in eastern Montana and should move into North Dakota through tonight and Wednesday morning. With these troughs, cooler air continues to move on through. Wednesday`s highs could break cold high temperature records in the southwest and possibly around the Jamestown area. Dickinson`s cold high is 65 degrees from 1962, and Jamestown`s is 67 from 1937. The current NBM forecast for these sites are 62 and 66 respectfully. A third small shortwave will move through from Canada Thursday, while a low pressure sits in Wyoming. The machine learning severe probabilities have a level 1 risk for the southwest. Looks like this could be another late evening to overnight threat. CAPE and shear from the big 3 models keep it in Montana and South Dakota. So we will have to continue watching the trends for that. Thursday will begin our warming trend as the flow is more zonal. Highs will reach into the 70s. Although we may not get severe storms, showers and thunderstorms are likely through the night northwest and central, with a chance elsewhere. As the wave progresses through the state, so does the chances of showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Temperatures will also increase through Saturday as the zonal flow continues with little embedded waves producing on and off showers. Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days of the forecast, as a short ridge brings warmer temperatures through. As of now, we are looking at highs in the 80s with chances of more showers and thunderstorms. Machine learning is hitting a few of these days for possible severe weather, but those are greater than 4 days out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Chances for light rain showers remain in the forecast through Wednesday morning, primarily south of KXWA and KMOT. The highest chances are in southwest North Dakota tonight into Wednesday morning, impacting the KDIK TAF. KBIS and KJMS also have chances for rain, although used PROB30 groups for these sites. Lingering lower clouds with this system may also bring some MVFR ceilings tonight through Wednesday morning. Showers and lower clouds then begin to diminish Wednesday afternoon and evening. Most locations will see north northeast winds around 10-15 kts through the forecast period, with more of an easterly direction in northwest parts of the state. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Anglin