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000
FXUS64 KBMX 282333
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE FRONT. STORMS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP AND
DOWN WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND ONE SEVERE STORM SO FAR IN PIKE
AND BARBOUR COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS COMBINATION
HAS YIELDED SBCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF
3000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK WITH ONLY 10-20 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN AND A FEW
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
THROUGH 7 PM. MODELS INDICATE THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY
AROUND 7 PM AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.  AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRIER AIR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PW VALUES TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE 50S BRINGING IN A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. THE COLDEST MORNING WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW RECORD LOWS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER THAN
AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE QUESTION REMAINS WHEN
WILL THE MOISTURE RETURN. MODELS INDICATE THAT PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO CREEP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A STRONG COLD FRONT...UNUSUAL FOR JULY...WAS EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THE AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES ON TUESDAY...A FEW WIND GUSTS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. THESE GUSTS WILL ONLY BE 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS REMAIN OR
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

75

&&

.CLIMATE...

WEDNESDAY 7/30

STATION       FORECAST TEMP      RECORD LOW(YEAR)

BIRMINGHAM         59              61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY         61              66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA         60              67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON           57              61 (1903)

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  83  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  83  57  83  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  84  59  84  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  86  60  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      66  85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      67  87  60  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  89  61  88  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        67  89  60  87  63 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$