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000
FXUS64 KBMX 280438
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Slow moving cold front is still somewhere in the vicinity of
Interstate 20. Once again, showers and storms have developed ahead
of the front, and will need to account for some additional
develop before the loss of daytime heating.

The initial front will continue its slow southward jaunt through
the night and into Wednesday. Computer models show a short window
of opportunity for more showers/storms in the southeast section of
the forecast area late tomorrow morning through early afternoon.
But by mid/late afternoon, dry air from the north should have
overwhelmed the entire area, bringing an end to our rain chances.

Beyond that, things look dry for the remainder of the 7 day
forecast period. Shortwave troughs rotating around a large upper
level low in the eastern half of the country will occasionally
spin some clouds down our way. But I still think that the best
moisture, capable of forming some showers, will stay to our north.
Low level winds will stay out of the north to northwest, and the
resultant cold advection will keep conditions near or below
seasonal normal through the weekend. Some recovery of both
temperatures and dewpoints are indicated for early next week.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Kept the trend of VFR conditions into this forecast package. The
front has continued its push southward and was near MGM/TOI. Drier
surface air has moved into the northern terminal locations and not
expecting any restrictions. MGM/TOI will be the last locations
that the drier air gets too. Added a short duration mention of
MVFR BR at TOI before sunrise.

Winds swing back around to a westerly component on Wednesday ahead
of another stronger cold front. Mostly clear conditions are
anticipated north while a few clouds at 4-5k ft are possible. The
next front enters central Alabama around 06z and did not mention
the wind shift yet.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A front with relatively higher rain chances will move slowly
through Central Alabama through Tuesday. Drier weather returns
for Wednesday and beyond. No fire weather concerns are
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     57  84  55  76  51 /  10   0  10   0   0
Anniston    61  84  56  76  51 /  10   0  10   0   0
Birmingham  60  85  58  76  54 /  10   0  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  60  85  58  78  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
Calera      61  85  58  77  54 /  10   0  10   0   0
Auburn      67  86  60  80  53 /  20  10  10   0   0
Montgomery  68  89  61  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
Troy        67  88  60  83  54 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$