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000
FXUS64 KBMX 141427
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD TODAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO THE REGION. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS
CURVE AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN FAST AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO INCREASED HIGHS
A DEGREE OR SO DUE TO THE CURVE SHIFT. OTHERWISE...HIGHS GENERALLY
STILL IN THE 60S WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 7 KTS AFTER 15Z AND SUBSIDE AGAIN NEAR
SUNSET. CEILINGS IN THE 5-10 KFT RANGE WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD.

05/MA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 459 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

THIS AM...WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS. A
FAIRLY SIMILAR NIGHT TEMPERATURE WISE BUT THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO NUDGE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST U.S. WINDS OFF THE
SURFACE ARE GOING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
PROGRESS OF THE RIDGE.

LOOK FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
KICKS IN AND MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TODAY AS CLOUDS RETURN INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
U.S. BY LATE SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES MERGING
WITH THE FIRST ONE. THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL HELP THE FLOW OVER
ALABAMA TO CHANGE FROM ZONAL FLOW TODAY TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY AND ALSO AIDE IN EJECTING DISTURBANCES INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE LATEST DATA HAS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING A TAD FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH DECENT MOISTURE...
SO A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA THAN YESTERDAY`S RUN. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER TO THE EURO SOLUTION...WRAPPING AROUND
SOME PRECIP AS WELL. SO CONTINUING WITH A WET FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LIGHTER ON MONDAY WITH THE
WRAP AROUND PRECIP. BEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON MOISTURE
RETURN ALONG WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH SO CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY
LOW POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  45  66  53  65 /   0  10  50  90  90
ANNISTON    67  45  66  52  65 /   0  10  40  90  90
BIRMINGHAM  68  47  67  53  68 /   0  10  50 100  80
TUSCALOOSA  69  47  68  54  71 /   0  10  60 100  80
CALERA      68  47  67  54  69 /   0  10  50 100  80
AUBURN      66  45  67  52  66 /   0  10  30  90  90
MONTGOMERY  70  48  69  57  72 /   0  10  40  90  90
TROY        68  45  70  56  70 /   0  10  20  90  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$