Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 190450
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL IS SLOWLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT. THE MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD
INTO GEORGIA. LIGHTER RAINS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND UNFORTUNATELY WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

EARLIER THIS EVENING...A WAKE LOW DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AREA.
SURFACE OBS IN THAT AREA SHOWED QUICK PRESSURE FALLS OF SEVERAL
MILLIBARS AS WINDS GUSTED TO 30-35 MPH. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
VELOCITIES WERE ALSO NOTED ON LOCAL RADARS. WITH SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS...THESE WINDS WERE ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES IN
MANY COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH
A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY TOMORROW...WITH SKIES CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOING TO BUMP OVERNIGHT
LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. WITH RAINFALL AND/OR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA...DO NOT SEE LOCATIONS DROPPING MUCH FROM THE
CURRENT TEMPS OF LOW TO MID 50S.

UPDATES OUT SOON.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS IS AT KTOI
WITH EVERYONE ELSE BEING VFR. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST.
DUE TO THIS PRECIPITATION FORMATION...HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN IN A MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THE LACK OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...HAVE
WENT AHEAD AND ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 18Z AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DESCENT MIXING DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AND NORTHERLY WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

07

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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