Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 281128
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
628 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The forecast for this cycle will be base on the premise that, with
weak upper level forcing until later in the upcoming week, rain
chances will stay at relatively low levels. Like previous
mornings, we`ve got some north-south oriented bands of very light
rain/sprinkles. It doesn`t appear that these will result in any
measurable precipitation, but they could cause the need for
running some windshield wipers this morning. Other than that, I
still don`t see anything obvious that suggests we need POPs
greater than about 20-30 percent until Friday or so. At that time,
the computer models show an upper level trough and weak surface
cold front that could enhance our rain chances. Temps will remain
near or above seasonal normals until the end of week system.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

An upper level shortwave moving through right now and light
showers have developed just ahead of the feature. Added in light
rain at TCL, BHM, and EET through 18Z. Expecting the activity to
become more isolated this afternoon so did not include ANB, ASN,
MGM and TOI at this time, but will need to monitor this morning
and amend as needed.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Upper level shortwave will increase rain chances this morning,
then drier for the rest of the weekend and into the first of the
week. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through
the weekend. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  63  89  65  89 /  30  10  10  10  20
Anniston    85  64  88  66  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
Birmingham  85  67  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  10  20
Tuscaloosa  87  67  91  69  91 /  60  10  20  10  20
Calera      85  66  90  68  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
Auburn      86  66  88  68  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
Montgomery  88  67  92  69  93 /  30  10  10  10  20
Troy        87  67  91  68  92 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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