Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
694 FXUS64 KBMX 141051 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 551 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 144 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 A deep-layer ridge axis will hold firm over the region today which should keep convection isolated this afternoon and evening. To our east, an inverted trough associated with a tropical disturbance, will move westward, bringing enhanced moisture and a focus for convection across Georgia. This activity should remain east of our forecast area today, but as the trough continues to move westward, thunderstorm activity may become quite robust on Tuesday across the eastern half of our forecast area. 87/Grantham && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 144 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 As the tropical disturbance moves westward across the northern Gulf in the Wednesday through Friday time frame, a large plume of enhanced moisture should overspread the Deep South. This should support relatively high prospects for rain, particularly across the southern half of Alabama and perhaps farther north if southerly flow becomes established. High moisture content is expected to remain across the region for the weekend, which should prolong an active pattern of diurnal convection. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025 As of writing, most sites are VFR. ASN is holding onto some patchy fog but that should clear out in the next couple of hours. There remains a short window for TCL to see some patchy fog but chances are rather low. Any convection that develops today will be isolated so have not included in the TAFs at this time. Winds remain light through this cycle. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future with daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. 20 foot winds should remain less than 7 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 72 95 72 / 20 10 20 20 Anniston 92 73 94 73 / 10 10 20 20 Birmingham 93 74 95 75 / 20 10 20 10 Tuscaloosa 94 74 96 76 / 20 10 20 10 Calera 92 74 95 75 / 20 10 20 10 Auburn 93 75 94 74 / 10 10 30 30 Montgomery 95 75 97 76 / 10 10 20 20 Troy 94 74 96 73 / 10 10 30 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...95/Castillo