Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 291146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
546 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN...WITH A FEW SPOTS OF EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL AL THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A BACK EDGE TO THE
RAIN SHIELD WAS NOTED OVER NW AL AND WILL REACH NE AL AROUND 7
AM... I-85 BY 12 PM...AND MAYBE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 3 PM.
THINKING THAT AFTER NOON...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE SO LIGHT IT
WILL MORE OF A DRIZZLE THAN RAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOWER
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. UNTIL THE EDGE OF THE RAIN CLEARS
THE AREA WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARM UP IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL OFF AFTER DARK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH AS THE DRIER AND
COLDER AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT. WITH THAT
IN MIND AND LITTLE DRYING TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS PATCHY FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INT HE 40S
NORTH AND 50S SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AS WE WORK INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE RETURNS AND WE GET BACK
INTO A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR MORE FLOODING AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO PAINT A VERY
SIMILAR PATTERN. QUESTIONS TO ANSWER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
BE ONE...WHERE DOES THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN SET UP? WILL IT BE IN
THE SAME AREA EACH WAVE OF ENERGY OR WILL IT FLUCTUATE ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AREAS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE NORTH WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
WHILE THE SOUTHEAST MAY ONLY SEE 1 INCH. MUCH MORE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY POOR THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH IFR AND LOWER CIGS LIKELY PRESENT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A BRIEF RISE IN CIGS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. IFR
CIGS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FOR ALL
TERMINALS AND REMAIN LIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  37  51  29  47 /  20  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    53  41  53  31  48 /  20  10  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  39  50  30  46 /  20  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  50  39  53  30  50 /  20  10  10  10   0
CALERA      52  41  53  32  49 /  20  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      59  44  58  36  51 /  60  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  57  44  60  35  54 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        59  44  61  36  55 /  60  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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