Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 080006
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM IS ROTATING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ST LOUIS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND DROPS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BE GUSTY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS
TIME.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD..THE AIRMASS
COLUMN JUST OFF THE SURFACE COOLS QUICKLY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S...IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS LOW AS 1500FT AGL.
FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST COLUMN UP TO AROUND
700MB/-19C...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE. LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST COLUMN ARE STEEP DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT...AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...STARTING OUT AS
RAIN AND TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE VERTICAL COLUMN
FALLS BELOW FREEZING ENTIRELY...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...MOISTURE IS LACKING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN BANDS...POSSIBLY TRAINING ACROSS
THE SAME AREA AT TIMES. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. FORECASTING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE BANDS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE SINCE ONE LOCATION
COULD SEE PRECIPITATION WHILE A FEW MILES DOWN THE ROAD REMAINS
DRY ALL DAY. GENERALLY...LIGHT AND NONUNIFORM ACCUMULATIONS COULD
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION FALL. LIGHT SNOW BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TUESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MID 30S ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...ONLY DIMINISHING TO 8-10MPH
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE PULLS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING CLOUD
COVER WITH IT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY WATCH A SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE THOUGH TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN AT THIS TIME.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SWING FROM THE WEST TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE
AND ZIP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 12 KTS
AND GUSTY.

CEILINGS AROUND 4-6K FT WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES EVEN LOWER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT ALMOST ANYTIME. BUT THE
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE FOR THE NORTHERN SITES...BUT
ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME THAT ANY TERMINAL WOULD
EXPERIENCE THIS WEATHER IS TOO LOW.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING TUESDAY.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  47  27  35  23 /  20  30  30  20  10
ANNISTON    36  48  27  36  24 /  10  30  30  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  38  47  29  36  25 /  20  20  30  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  37  48  30  39  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      37  48  28  38  26 /  10  20  20  10   0
AUBURN      36  51  29  38  27 /  10  20  20  10   0
MONTGOMERY  37  53  30  42  28 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        37  55  30  42  29 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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