Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 250019 AAA
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
719 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Watching radar this afternoon, you can see the weak shortwave
moving through Georgia and heading to Central Alabama. Showers
are traveling more west-southwest with this activity while the
showers over our neck of the woods are traveling more southerly.
We should begin to see the more southwesterly to west-
southwesterly movement after 4 pm as the shortwave works in riding
along the bottom of the ridge beginning to build over the area.
Activity should die off fairly quickly again tonight as we are in
a somewhat drier atmosphere.

As we move into Thursday, conditions are still looking fairly dry,
with the exception of the west/northwest, where they will be on
the backside of the shortwave that moves through today and have
enough lift for an isolated shower/storm. Otherwise drier and
warmer for most of the area as the high pressure begins to take
hold.

For the end of the week and into the weekend most of the area will
be dry with the high pressure over the area. Several shortwave
will try to work into the area across the northwest, but the ridge
should be strong enough to keep the best rain chances just to our
north through the period.

As we work into next week, the forecast takes a dive into the
realm of very low confidence as watch a tropical wave move closer
to the area. The strength and placement of this wave is still yet
to be determined and will be determined by the placement of the
ridge over the southeast and if there are any weaknesses within
that ridge. Synoptically there is a good chance that this wave
makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, but there is still quite a bit
of time before that can determined so stay tuned.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

A few isolated lingering showers and thunderstorms are in the far
eastern part of the state now and should dissipate in the next
hour or so. Have a mention in only ASN/ANB. Otherwise, we are
looking at VFR conditions with mainly light and variable winds and
low pops for Thursday thanks to ridging.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated/scattered showers and storms are possible today as
easterly flow increases over the area. A prolonged period of
generally dry conditions may begin Thursday and continue into the
weekend. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  93  71  93  71 /  10  20  10  20  10
Anniston    72  93  71  92  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
Birmingham  75  94  74  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  74  95  74  94  73 /  10  20  10  20  10
Calera      73  93  73  93  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
Auburn      72  92  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  74  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        72  93  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

16/08



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