Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 270253
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
853 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TWO CLOUD DECKS HAVE SEPARATED OVER ALABAMA WITH ONE DECK EXITING
OUT OF EAST ALABAMA AND ANOTHER DECK OVER NW ALABAMA. THE DECK
OVER NW ALABAMA IS ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE CIG HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER CIGS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
1000-1500 FT CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA STARTING IN THE 05-08Z TIME
RANGE AND MVFR CIGS AT KMGM AND KTOI. AN INVERSION ALOFT COULD
KEEP THE CIGS IN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

CURRENTLY LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE A WHOLE MORE CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON
THAT THERE REALLY IS. THAT IS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK IN THE
NORTH. EVEN WITH THAT SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY
IN THE WEST. MEANWHILE AREAS IN THE EAST ARE ACTUALLY COOLER THAN
THOSE IN THE WEST AS THE THICKER STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE NOT ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GO FAR. CALERA WAS 33 AT 7 THIS MORNING AND STILL
SITTING AT 37 THIS AFTERNOON AND NO SNOW...WHEREAS HALEYVILLE WITH
A FOOT OF SNOW IS SITTING AT 38...WITH SOME SUN.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY SLIDE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IN THE EAST. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLOUD COVER WITH
THIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE
NORTH. FOR NOW LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE EVENING SHIFT
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IT TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED.

OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE THE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED IN NEXT WEEK. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
STALL OUT EITHER JUST NORTH OR RIGHT IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH WORKS IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT THURSDAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LAST FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON TIMES OF THIS FINAL
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE ON
ANY DAY JUST IS NOT THERE. MUCH MORE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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