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000
FXUS65 KBOI 071039
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
339 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AS AS UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY BUT WITH HIGHS
STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR
AREA TONIGHT...THEN FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD DAYTIME TEMPS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARMER...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOWERING TO
ABOVE 5500 FEET MSL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST TUESDAY WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON ON
TUESDAY BUT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IDAHO.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
ALONG THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER ALL AREAS. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA SO HAVE DECREASED POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MODELS DIVERGE IN
SOLUTION WITH THE GFS HOLDING ONTO THE RIDGE AND THE ECMWF TRYING
TO BRING IN THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TREND TOWARDS CLIMO
POPS AT THIS TIME AND MAKE CHANGES WHEN CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL
ABOVE 4K FEET MSL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT THE MAGIC
VALLEY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA