Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 141001
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
GENERALLY RAIN BELOW ABOUT 4500 FEET. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN
INCH ARE SO FAR BEING REPORTED IN MCCALL AND AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AROUND TAMARACK. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED AT
BRUNDAGE. SNOW LEVEL WILL ONLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTING
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500 FEET IN THE FAR NORTH NEAR MCCALL TO OVER
8000 FEET NEAR THE NEVADA/IDAHO/OREGON BORDER. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE WARM FRONT KICKS OUT AND THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN WHAT IT REALLY IS AS
850-700MB WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO AND OREGON REACH AROUND 30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFINED TO SOUTHERN IDAHO ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH STRENGTH TO BRING RAIN TO
THE VALLEYS AND SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. LATEST MODEL RUNS ALL AGREE ON
REBUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR RAIN..SNOW..AND TERRAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR BY 00Z AS
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DECREASES. CLOUD COVER SHOULD INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 5K FT MSL TODAY WILL RISE TO
AROUND 6K FT MSL TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS...WEST 10-20 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT THROUGH 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 20-30 KTS INCREASING TO 40-50
KTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...CR
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT


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