Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 220953
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
353 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO THE PAC NW THIS MORNING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS TODAY...OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. THE COMBINATION OF ENERGY
FROM THE LOW...MOIST CONDITIONS PRECEDING THE LOW...AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL FOCUS SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER E-CENTRAL
OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING. FAVORABLE 0-6 KM
SHEAR...LOWER FREEZING LEVELS AND GOOD INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON
...WHERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE. ALSO STORM LAYER
WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS TODAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
STRONGER SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR STORMS. DRIER AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS HARNEY
AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES TODAY AND WORK INTO SW IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN
THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON FROM BOISE WESTWARD. COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES TONIGHT...KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE LOW CENTER
IS IN EASTERN IDAHO WITH NORTHERLY FLOW FOCUSING WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS.
TODAY AND SATURDAY ARE COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES 8-12 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOLER
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN AREA WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 3-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MINS NEAR NORMAL...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH WILL HAVE EXITED AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE IDAHO/
NEVADA BORDER WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND
SOUTHEAST OREGON EAST OF HARNEY COUNTY BY 18Z. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND FROM
THE MAGIC VALLEY SOUTH INTO NEVADA.  THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE IN DIRECTION 5-15 KTS WITH
LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST
UP TO 15 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.


&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT


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