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000
FXUS65 KBOI 041637
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
937 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR AND COLD THIS MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
RESIDES OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S VALLEYS/30S MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 15 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...LONG WAVE RIDGE HAS RE-DEVELOPED OFF THE WEST COAST
AND WILL REMAIN THERE THE REST OF THE WEEK.  CLEAR COLD AND DRY WX
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS MUCH LIKE THOSE ON
TUESDAY BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND.  A FEW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON IN
NRN-MOST ZONES AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  COLD AGAIN TONIGHT
BUT 7F TO 10F WARMER HIGHS THURSDAY THAN TODAY AS NLY FLOW ALOFT
DECREASES AND BECOMES WNWLY.  ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NRN-MOST ZONES AGAIN BUT SKIES WILL BE SUNNY
ELSEWHERE.  CONTINUED DRY.  NO MORNING FOG EXPECTED TODAY OR
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH ITS AXIS REMAINING ROUGHLY OVER CALIFORNIA WILL DOMINATE THE
MID-LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND AN UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
PACNW NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN A CHANGE IN
PATTERN SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP