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000
FXUS65 KBOI 210302
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
902 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AS TRANSITION
TO SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES MOISTURE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALSO SHIFT TO FAVOR EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL
RUNS STILL SHOWING BROAD HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE AREA
WHICH WILL CAP THE WARMING POTENTIAL /THOUGH STILL A WARM DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS. W-NW WINDS ALOFT TO 20 KNOTS UP TO 10K FEET MSL...SHIFTING TO
THE SW AFTER 12Z. INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AHEAD FOR THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY INSTABILITY
MONDAY AFTERNOON SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE TROUGH
MOVES INLAND TUESDAY MORNING AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM 8000-9000 FEET
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO 4500-5500 FEET MSL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY
WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BULK OF THE FORECAST FOR
MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS. FIRST OF TWO DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL EXIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE RESULTING
IN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST
IDAHO. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND 3000 FEET. MODELS DEPICT A SHORT-WAVE
UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH...SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT DEEP UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY WORKS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....BW/DD