Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 261019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
319 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Cold upper trough will carve
out a position over the Pac NW through Monday. Energy dropping
into the trough along with afternoon instability will keep a
chance of showers over much the area, though the focus of more
continuous snowfall will be across the east-central Oregon and
central Idaho mountains. Highest accumulations still look to
concentrate over the west-central Idaho mountains with slightly
lesser amounts in Baker county, the Weiser basin and Boise
mountains. Further to the south, to include the Snake Plain and
southeast Oregon, precipitation amounts will be light, totaling a
tenth of an inch or less through Monday. Snow accumulation will
generally be limited to sites above 4k feet during the daylight
hours, though temperatures Sunday night will be cold enough to
support accumulations at all elevations. Any snowfall Sunday night
in the lower basins and valleys will be sporadic and light, with
less than an inch for sites that see snow. The advisory for the
west-central Idaho mountains remains in place, while rest of area
stays below criteria. Winds pick up today ahead of the trough,
adding a windchill to the well below normal temperatures. Winds
are lighter tonight and Monday, but temperatures will remain
around 10 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...Models still have the
cold upper level trough exiting east of our area on Tuesday,
followed by cool northwest flow aloft through Thursday. There will
be enough moisture embedded in this flow for snow showers over the
mountains of Baker County Oregon and central Idaho, but the
remainder of our area is expected to be dry. Friday through Saturday
a Pacific weather system will spread precipitation across our area.
There will be a gradual warming trend through the period, and
temperatures will be close to normal Friday and Saturday, with snow
levels rising to around 5000 feet.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR this morning south of a KBNO-KONO-KSUN line.
Snow showers will spread south into Baker County Oregon and the west
central Idaho mountains this morning, and reach the Nevada border by
this evening. Expect mountain obscuration with areas of MVFR and
local IFR conditions in the KBKE and KMYL areas this morning, and
across most of the rest of the area after 18z. Surface winds
southeast to south 10-20 kts. Winds aloft at 10k ft msl southwest to
west 15-25 kts this morning increasing to 20-30 kts this afternoon.


ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM MST
     Monday IDZ011.



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