Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 030254
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
854 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE STAYED JUST OFF THE EDGES OF THE CWA FOR
THE MOST PART THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SRN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. WE STILL EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
SPREADING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN NEVADA TO SOUTHERN OREGON. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY VARIABLE 10KT...EXCEPT SW TO WESTERLY 10-20KT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON NEAR KREO-KBNO AND IDAHO OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45KT THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-
15KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS WARM TONIGHT.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SO FAR STAYED WELL SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SRN NEVADA WILL
MOVE NORTH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR CWA.  THE TROUGH...CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS
DOWN MONDAY.  TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP A COUPLE DEGS TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH EXITS NEWD.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL THEN LEAD
TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SRN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY LIGHT QPF BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SO POPS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW LOCATED
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
SEND A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STICKING TO A DRIER SOLUTION WITH PRECIP MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MORE MODELS ARE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS...INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM...SO HAVE TRENDED
THE FORECAST POPS HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY IN GENERAL. IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME SORT OF COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH OF A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
FOR THURSDAY AND A CUT-OFF LOW FROM COASTAL CALIFORNIA MOVING NE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS IS ALSO
DEPICTING MORE QPF WITH THIS LOW THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/
     MONDAY ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/DD



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