Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 300242
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
842 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN WELD AND
LARIMER COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST HAD A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVENING TRENDS...SO WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTS
WHEN THE SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END.

EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS UTAH...NEVADA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AGAIN
TOMORROW. WITH WARMER 700 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TOMORROW...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON THE PLAINS LOOK TO BE A GOOD
FORECAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO ADD A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY TO THE MIX AS WELL. OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAY ONCE AGAIN BE SUBJECT TO THE WEATHER THAT DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ALREADY SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WAVE APPROACHING FROM WYOMING. EXPECT CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT
WHICH IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NOTHING TO STRONG
BUT STILL COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS UPPER AIR SUPPORT MOVES EAST WITH THE TROF.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS SOME
DRYING AND ADDITIONAL WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIAL
CONVECTION A BIT MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY AND MORE
CONFINED OVER MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN NEAR COLORADO. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE...SO WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...CLEARING OUT THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE.

WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SOMEWHAT THE GFS SHOW A WAVE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING MONDAY. WILL PUT
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY PUMP UP SOME MONSOON MOISTURE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WEATHER IMPACTS THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THE DENVER AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER METRO AREA. WILL
CARRY A PROB30 OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3 PM TO 6 PM. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...DANKERS



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