Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 300210
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1010 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Bands of heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop overnight into Memorial Day, especially closer to the South
Coast. Dry conditions with warm afternoons follow Tuesday into
Wednesday. Unsettled weather may return by the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

1010 pm update...

***Bands of heavy rain showers overspread the region from southwest
to northeast between 2 and 8 am***

Plume of tropical moisture and its associated bands of heavy rain
showers across the Mid Atlantic States will lift northeast into our
region ahead of an approaching cold front.  Should see main shield
arrive of rain showers arrive between 2 and 8 am from southwest to
northeast.

Model guidance still indicates near record high PWATS for this time
of year, rising to around 2 inches by 12z.  This will result in
localized bands of torrential rainfall into Memorial Day.  It still
remains uncertain as to where the heaviest bands of rainfall will
occur.  Shortwave energy tracks across western New England which
would favor interior southern New England toward 12z. However,
expect a secondary of heavy rainfall to get going across southeast
New England on the nose of the low level jet and with the help of
some elevated instability.

The heavy rain showers may result in pockets of urban and poor
drainage street flooding, so have gone ahead and issued a special
weather statement especially since its a big travel day.  Given near
record high PWATS/combined with a decent low level jet, it remains
possible that a localized area receives 2+ inches in less than an
hour.  If this were to track across one of our more vulnerable urban
centers, a very localized flash flood event may occur.  However,
appears that this threat is too localized for a Flash Flood Watch
but will continue to monitor.

Patchy fog also expected particularly on the south coast, Cape and
Islands.  Still a large range in temps at 10 pm, from 74 in Hartford
to 52 in Beverly.  Models likely lifting backdoor front out too
quickly given shallow nature of the cool air, so will slow temp rise
across eastern New England down a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

* Localized flash flooding Memorial Day, esp near S Coast
* Few storms possible Monday afternoon, mainly in W MA

Although confidence in the exact location remains low, pattern
favors locally heavy rainfall in parts of SNE Memorial Day due to
remnants of tropical system combined with approaching front and
strong low level jet offshore. Precipitable water values will
climb to around 2 inches, which as noted previously is near record
high levels for this time of year. This scenario could bring
rainfall rates as high as 2-3 inches per hour in a few locations,
possibly resulting in rapid urban flooding.

12z models and ensembles are showing greater potential for this
to occur near the South Coast. However, it is likely that model
resolution is not resolving these small-scale features very well
at this time frame, so the location projected by the models may
not be accurate. It is possible that axis of heavier rainfall sets
up closer to northeast CT, Providence, and Boston or even ends up
farther offshore south of Cape Cod and the Islands. We probably
won`t know for sure until later tonight when we get within 12
hours of the heaviest rain.

As a result, we will hold off on issuing any Flash Flood Watches
at this time, since confidence is low.

It does appear that the showers will end up focusing across
southeast New England Monday afternoon, meaning there may be some
drying (and brief clearing) across the interior. Should that
occur, it`s possible that a few thunderstorms could reach western
MA by evening. However, the threat for severe weather looks
minimal given weak instability and shear expected to be in place.

Cold front will move through the region Monday night, pushing any
remaining showers offshore and ushering some drier air into SNE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...
  * Mainly dry, with above normal temperatures Tue/Wed
  * Unsettled weather may return toward next weekend

29/12z guidance remains in good overall agreement over this
portion of the forecast. There are typical timing differences of
smaller scale features. Will go with a consensus approach, as
predictability of these smaller details is often low.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mid-level ridge moves over southern New
England. This will bring dry weather to much of the area. A weak
cold front should continue to move offshore Tuesday, with perhaps
some lingering showers toward the south coast, Cape and islands.
Another backdoor cold front tries to move into our region
Wednesday. Temperatures will be above normal through both days,
especially across the interior. More seasonable temperatures are
expected Wednesday along the east coast of MA due to the onshore
flow.

Thursday through Sunday...A mid-level trough moves into Quebec,
allowing several weak shortwaves to pass by to our north. This
will result in periods of showers throughout this portion of the
forecast. Not expecting a complete washout. Kept a broad period
of chance PoPs, but not expecting it to be raining the entire
time. Greatest risk for showers will be ahead of a passing cold
front sometime Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...Moderate Confidence.

Tonight through Monday Night...IFR and even LIFR becomes
widespread as bands of showers/isolated storms approach from the
south. Activity should be more numerous 09z-18z Mon, especially
closer to the South Coast, before it begins to push offshore later
Mon. It is also possible that a few showers or storms reach
western New England from eastern NY late Mon afternoon or evening,
but confidence is low.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence. VFR. Low probability
for IFR conditions Wednesday toward the east coast, as a backdoor
cold front tries to move inland.

Thursday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions expected.
Increasing clouds with diminishing conditions through the night,
particularly along the south coast.

Friday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions expected.
Scattered MVFR in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...High confidence.

Winds and seas should generally remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through Monday, but seas may approach 5 ft on waters
east of Cape Cod Monday afternoon. Main threat will be patchy
dense fog this evening into Monday, mainly on the south coastal
waters. Showers with heavy rain will reach all waters late tonight
and last into Monday.

We should see building seas to 5-7 ft Monday night on the south
coastal waters, as swells from what was once Bonnie arrive in our
area. Small craft advisories may be needed

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on wave heights
with swell from Tropical Storm Bonnie potentially moving up into
the coastal waters. At this point there is potential for 5 foot
seas, especially on the outer waters. Southwesterly winds remain
below 20 kts, shifting to the north Tuesday night.

Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Northeasterly winds and seas
will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Thursday...Moderate confidence. Easterly winds and seas increase.
Seas may rise above 5 feet, especially on the outer waters.

Friday...Moderate confidence. Persistent easterly winds less than
20 kt will likely keep rough seas across the outer coastal
waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/JWD
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/JWD
MARINE...Belk/JWD



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