Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 291401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WILL YIELD MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE WAVE MOVING OUT BEFORE ANOTHER ONE MOVES IN. DISCERNIBLE VIA
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS PRESENTLY SWEEPING S
NEW ENGLAND. SOME LIGHT RAIN / SHOWERY ACTIVITY ALONG ITS S AND W
EDGE AS IT SWEEPS E PER MID LEVEL FORCING OF A DECENT MOIST LAYER
BETWEEN H85-5 SEEN IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THINKING
FOR MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE HERE OR THERE TO THE S/W. OVERALL
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SINKING AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S.

COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH A PREVAILING E/SE ONSHORE FLOW PICKING
UP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONGER MID
LEVEL VORTEX FOR LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A BATTLE OF AIRMASSES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE N/E AGAINST ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE W. WOULD
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE W WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE VORTEX...BUT DRY SINKING AIR LINGERS N/E. HIGH RES GUIDANCE
HAS THE VORTEX SLINKING S/E OF OUR REGION UP AGAINST THE PREVAILING
HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH COAST.  CONTINUED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RADIATING OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS.  SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SUN INTO MON
* DRYING TREND LIKELY TUE AND POSSIBLY WED ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THU

OVERVIEW...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND W CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE GT
LAKES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF COOL AND WET CONDITIONS SUN INTO MON AS
LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW ENG. A BRIEF DRYING TREND AND MILDER TEMPS
WILL FOLLOW TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...THEN
MID LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE LAKES WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY THU.

SAT NIGHT...
HIGH PRES ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL SLOWLY MOVE E AS OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. GFS IS FASTEST MOVING RAIN INTO SNE
LATER SAT NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF/NAM/GGEM/UKMET KEEP RAIN TO THE WEST.
FOLLOWED CONSENSUS OF DRY FORECAST WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF LIGHT
RAIN REACHING W NEW ENG LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN INTO MON...
MOST OF THIS PERIOD LIKELY TO BE COOL AND WET. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUN FROM WEST TO EASY AS OVERRUNNING
OF SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO DEEP MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON
ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. A SECOND PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW PRES TRACKS S OF NEW
ENG...ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY MON WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TUE INTO WED...
WEAK HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUE WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO WED AS MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS STILL BACK ACROSS GT LAKES.

THU...
LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN AS MID
LEVEL TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS NE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL
WAVE TO THE S OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH -SHRA PREVAIL S/W THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BREEZY SE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. MODERATE RISK OF MVFR FOR S/W
CT AND RI AS WELL AS S COASTAL MASS TERMINALS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE
VFR WITH LIGHT MAINLY E FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...BREEZY E FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
VEERING FROM THE SE TOWARDS EVENING. VFR CIGS WITH A MOSTLY MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH
W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DRYING TREND WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER OVERALL. EXPECT WET WEATHER ACTIVITY LATE
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT OVER THE S/W WATERS OFF OF THE S-COAST OF
RI/MASS. BREEZY SE FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TODAY...ISOLATED
25 KTS...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY
ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS.

SUNDAY INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTH DURING MON AS LOW PRES
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING MON AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GIVEN THE LONG ENE FETCH. VSBYS REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SCA SEAS LIKELY
FOR EASTERN WATERS FROM ENE SWELLS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL



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