Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 060525
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1225 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND FRI.
THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. TWO WEAK FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...FIRST SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1225 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF SNOW HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF NANTUCKET. CLEARING WAS
NOT FAR BEHIND AND WILL MAKE IT TO COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. ONCE
SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY WITH DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP SNOWPACK WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 BELOW ACROSS INTERIOR AND 5 TO 15
CLOSER TO COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE MIDWEST AND THEN SLIDES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT.  QUIET BUT CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES...NOT AS COLD THIS WEEKEND AND MODERATING TO NEAR
  NORMAL NEXT WEEK

* PRECIPITATION...RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY PRECIP EVENTS VERY MINOR

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH WEST COAST AND
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE HOLDING ON THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION OF A DOWNSTREAM LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 12Z
GEFS AND 00Z EPS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUID THAT
THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...YIELDING
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS
IN DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN AND TEMPS MODERATING TO POSSIBLY
SEASONABLE LEVELS /HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S/ NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR PRECIP...NORTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THE DOMINANT AIR STREAM
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS MID
LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND PRECLUDING STREAMS FROM
MERGING/PHASING AT THIS LONGITUDE...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN. HOWEVER THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DELIVER A FEW MOISTURE
STARVED SHORT WAVES/FRONTS TO ZIP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AND RISK OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARRIVES SAT
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TRAILING IMPULSE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT.

VFR. SHOULD SEE SCT020 NEAR OUTER CAPE AND POSSIBLY NANTUCKET
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT WITH CIGS AOA 080.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR NE MA WATERS OVERNIGHT AND
SCA REMAINS UP MAINLY FOR SEAS INTO FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...MODEST WSW WIND OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. VSBY MAY
LOWER BRIEFLY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODEST WNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN WINDS BECOME SW AT
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. VSBY MAY LOWER BRIEFLY IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS SUN NIGHT.

MON...SW WINDS IN THE AM WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...THEN WNW IN
THE PM BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUE...LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG/JWD



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