National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KBRO 171852
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
152 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SCOOT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN THANKS TO MID LEVEL
RIDGING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AND MAY HOLD
TEMPERATURES STEADY FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE VALLEY. LOOK FOR LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE VALLEY.

LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
AN EMERGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING IN THE MORNING HOURS...WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS AOA 2000 FEET UP. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED 15-22Z WITH WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
VALLEY /CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES/. MID LEVEL WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID MORNING WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AFFECTING A
LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
ZAPATA COUNTY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO DECREASE AND WITH
15-20 KNOT 20 FT WINDS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FROM HWY 281 EASTWARD TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

WINDS DECREASE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
AND EAST OF HWY 281. LOWS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE MID AND UPPER LOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE CONUS REMAINS STAGNANT WITH PERSISTENT
EASTERN SEABOARD TROUGHING AND RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN...A ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

MODELS CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT EACH COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH AND INTO TEXAS GULF COAST
AREA. THE FIRST ONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE LATTER
ONE NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EACH OF THESE FRONTS HAVE A POTENTIAL
TO USHER IN SOME RAIN AS THEY WEAKEN ON THEIR APPROACH AND
EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH JUST A SHORT DURATION OF MOISTURE RETURN. WINDS BACK TO THE
EAST WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM
DEVELOPING UNDER THE CAPPING INVERSION WHERE THE MOST ABUNDANT
MOISTURE RESIDES. TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF TOWARDS NORMAL WHICH
IS STILL A COMFORTABLE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. SOUTHEAST FLOW
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO
ENTRAIN INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE THE NEXT FRONT /WHICH AT
THIS TIME LOOKS STRONGER/ MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE FRONT
BECOMES DRAPED ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW INDICATED. THIS COULD LEAD TO A WET
PERIOD IF THIS DOES IN DEED OCCUR. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
ALSO ON THE LOW END BUT A LITTLE HIGHER WITH ADDED MOISTURE IT IS
JUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT THAT IS IN QUESTION. AT THIS TIME
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH 3 PM. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. TONIGHT WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE INCREASING
QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE ON TUESDAY.

/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY MODERATE ON SHORE FLOW
BACKS TO THE EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY BUT REMAINS AT MODERATE
LEVELS. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE WINDS
TURN EAST. SWELLS ON THE OTHER HAND COULD INCREASE BUT FLOW IN THE
CENTRAL GULF LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS AT BEST SO WILL
MAINTAIN A LOWER THEN AVERAGE SEA HEIGHT AND WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS OF 7 FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER FRONT SHOWS SIGNS OF APPROACHING
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NEXT SUNDAY. EASTERLY FLOW TO STRENGTHEN
LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  56  80  64  79 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          56  83  64  80 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            53  85  61  80 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              53  87  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      50  90  61  81 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   60  77  66  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
MARTINEZ...GRAPHICS/PSU