


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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955 FXUS64 KBRO 182329 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 629 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 A generally hot and rain-free period for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Upper-level high pressure will continue to be the biggest influence for the weather over the region allowing for more subsidence to occur and thus limiting chances for rain. While a stray shower or thunderstorm with the seabreeze cannot be ruled out for the period, the chances for rain are very low (less than 10%). Mostly sunny skies are expected for the period allowing for temperatures to rise as well. The high temperatures are expected to generally range from the mid 90s to the lower triple digits. However, the heat indices at this time are generally expected to only range from 105-109. There are a few days that are an exception to this. Both Monday and Wednesday show a several locations in Kenedy county approaching 110. While that is below the criteria for Heat Advisory. It is still a good idea to practice heat safety and limit time outside especially during peak heating hours. Another notable exception is that on Tuesday, the heat indices in Kenedy county do exceed 111 for a short period of time. While not long enough for warrant a Heat Advisory, a Special Weather Statement for heat could be issued. The heat risk for the period is mostly Moderate (level 2 of 4). The low temperatures for the period are mostly in the 70s, with a few places on the extreme southern portions of the CWA approaching 80. With swell and surf expected to remain low for the next couple of days, the risk of rip currents along the Lower Texas coast is expected to remain low. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with brief MVFR ceilings possible at MFE around sunrise. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the forecast, with wind gusts diminishing overnight and return around noon Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Generally favorable conditions are expected with light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate seas. High pressure over the Lower Texas coast will keep rain chances to a minimum through the period. A slight increase in the southeasterly winds over the Laguna Madre and Nearshore Gulf waters that result in Small Craft Exercise Caution for short periods of time starting this weekend and continuing through the middle of next week as winds are forecasted to be around 15 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 93 79 94 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 96 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 99 79 99 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 79 88 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 78 93 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...64 LONG TERM....64 AVIATION...60-BE