Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 311812 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
112 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORT ISABEL AND SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
HAVE LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT
LEFT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO HIGHER INSTABILITY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ALL TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 22 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z SATURDAY. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IN LIGHT OF A MORE ROBUST FORECAST BASED ON THE FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING...LIKEWISE BEEFED UP THE TAFS TO
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE THIS
MORNING. DEPENDING ON THR EXACT TIMING...THAT PORTION OF THE TAFS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE THE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY TO IFR...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. ONCE THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...NOW ABREAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI...MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EWX
CWA THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 30 MPH AND WILL KEEP THINGS INTERESTING
IN THE SHORT TERM. REVAMPED THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS A BIT TO
INCREASE OVERALL POPS. SPEED OF ADVANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER VALLEY FROM ROUGHLY 10 AM TO NOON. ONCE
THROUGH HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOLER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER VALLEY MAY
ACHIEVE THE MID 80S TODAY...BUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY LOWER 80S WILL BE MORE THE NORM. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE CLUSTER AND A POCKET OF ENERGY AT BOTH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SOME OF THE LIFT.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL RIDGE...WITH PERHAPS THE SLIGHTEST BIT OF
SUBTROPICAL JET LIFT IN THE MIX AS WELL.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR HOWEVER...WITH LOW TEMPS FROM THE LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST AND AT BROWNSVILLE. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND COOLER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 70S...CLOSE TO NORMAL. JUST A FEW SHOWERS MAY MATERIALIZE OFF
SHORE IF WINDS VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST QUICK ENOUGH...BUT POPS WILL
REMAIN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY STILL LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACT
WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
US...FORCED BY A STRENGTHENING AND BROADENING UPPER LEVEL JET
MAXIMUM AHEAD OF A DIGGING SOUTHWESTERN US TROUGH. WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ADVECT IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT PRECIPITATION MAY BE HARD TO
COME BY AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IMPINGES ON THE AREA WITH
DRY AIR PERHAPS CAPPING MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE FORM OF STREAMER
SHOWERS AND TUESDAY THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO AREAS EAST OF HWY 281.

MODELS STILL HAVING ISSUES RESOLVING THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORTICITY
AND RESULTANT CLOSED LOW OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. OF THE AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE CMC IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING IT ACROSS AROUND
12 HOURS LATER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT BRING
A FRONT THROUGH AND KEEPS IT NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AS CONSISTENT AS I CAN LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND BLENDING WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS. MADE
LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID RAISE
POPS ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BEST PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION EXISTS WITH THE INJECTION OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE AREA. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT...BRINGING ABOUT EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
MORE THAN ABOUT 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
MODERATE FLOW WILL RULE THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH MODERATE
SEAS. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ADVERSE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES STRONG AND SEAS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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