Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 051134 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHY LOW CLD DECKS
FORMING UP OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND THESE CLD DECKS APPEAR TO
BE DRIFTING NORTH. SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MFE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT ANY CEILINGS THAT FORM UP LATER TODAY. WITH
500 MB RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE RGV AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A MORE
SUBSIDENT ATMS TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY CONV
POTENTIAL TO THE GULF WATERS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE LOCATED. ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
POINTS TOWARDS SINGLE DIGIT POPS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE
SHORT RANGE FOR POPS. AS THE RIDGING BUILDS THE 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ALLOWING FOR A SLOW
WARMUP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAV AND ECMWF TEMP
GUIDANCE SETS ARE COMING IN A BIT WARMER VERSUS THE NAM NUMBERS.
WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER MODEL SETS AS THE NAM HIGH TEMPS
LOOK A LITTLE BIT UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING RECENT TEMP TRENDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...H5 RIDGING OVER TEXAS
WILL BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED BY SUNDAY...WITH A MID LEVEL
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVER
TIME...LOOKING MORE LIKE AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF BY EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MARINE AND COASTAL AREAS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE INCREASES POPS ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND TUE...WITH THE
ECMWF TRENDING HIGHER THAN THE GFS LATE IN THE WEEK...THOUGH STILL
NO MORE THAN SCT OR CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME WESTERN
LOCALES...WEST OF U.S. 281OR IH-69C IN THE MID VALLEY...THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
HELP MODERATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY DATA AND SURFACE OBS FROM NEAR THE
LOWER TX COASTLINE INDICATES A STEADY SE WIND AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GULF SWELLS AROUND 3 FT. AS SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS
OVER THE GULF OF MEX EXPECT THE PGF TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH WIND AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SCA LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS
WILL BE COUNTERED BY A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THE LOW WILL BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
GULF WHICH WILL SUPPORT UNSETTLED WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  94  79  93  79 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          95  79  95  78 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            97  77  97  78 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              99  80  99  79 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     100  77 101  77 /  10   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  89  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...54
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58


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