Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 012001
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS WILL CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A
FAIRLY DECENT COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVERALL MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED UNTIL LATE THURS NIGHT WHEN THE
FRONT MAKES IT TO THE DOORSTEPS OF DEEP SOUTH TX. ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR JUST BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES TO ALLOW FOR THE
CONV POTENTIAL TO START INCREASE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHY MARINE CONV PERSISTING OVER THE LOWER TX
GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LINGER NEAR
THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING SOME SLGT CHC
POPS NEAR THE MARINE AREAS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME CHC POPS FOR RW/TRW LATE THURS NIGHT WHICH IS PRETTY
MUCH IN LINE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE GFS COMES IN A BIT
DRIER AND SHOWS ONLY SOME SLGT CHC POPS LATE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AM MORE CONFIDENT OF THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO THE
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWN HERE.

AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START
INCREASING THROUGHOUT TOMORROW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE MORE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARMER
TEMPS ON THURS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE
IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE VALLEY BY
MIDAY WITH THE 12Z NAM BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH LATER. OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MOISTURE WILL POOL AND PWATS INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES. LIFTING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL START TO FILTER IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN US. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF A FEW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY AND ALONG THE
RIVER...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
FRONT STALLS OUT SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.
WITH 1000 TO 500 MB COLUMN RH VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SO HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE
RIVER AND ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.  THE SLIGHT REPRIEVE IN TEMPERATURES IS ONLY SHORT LIVED AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESUMES ON SUNDAY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURN TO
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING PGF WILL START
INCREASING THE S-SE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM BUILDING UP THE
SEAS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WAVE
HEIGHTS AND WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SUBSIDING SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  90  80  87 /  10  20  30  50
BROWNSVILLE          79  91  78  88 /  10  20  30  50
HARLINGEN            78  93  77  89 /  10  10  30  50
MCALLEN              78  94  77  89 /  10  10  30  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  96  77  89 /  10  10  30  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  88  80  85 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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