Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A POST FRONTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AT THIS HOUR MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS...SKY...AND POPS/WX
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BTV CWA THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY
SURFACE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHILE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTHWESTWARD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND WHILE
STILL ONGOING ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS THE BTV CWA WILL BE RAIN-
FREE AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH POST
FRONTAL TROUGH...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. LOW WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW FILTERING IN DRIER
AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...AROUND 6C-8C. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO M70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CREST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS DIP TO
AROUND 5C. AT THE SFC...ADKS WILL SEE SOME M-U30S WHILE THE
GREENS REMAIN IN THE L40S. IN THE VALLEYS...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE M40S TO L50S.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RETURN FLOW...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S-M70S WITH
MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE M40S-U50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE
BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING
UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAIN OUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE
STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG.

THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING
MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
<20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP
WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S.
THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60S.

SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING
1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF
SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS
POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAIN OUT,
BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT.

MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT
850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE.

TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE
WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM
OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW
ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH
INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF
MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT
FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK
ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD
SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK.
WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH
REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS
GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY
VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH







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