Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 281741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN EASTERN
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL END BY TONIGHT WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD DRY AIR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TO START THE WORK
WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND LEAD TO
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 141 PM EDT SATURDAY...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LOOKS LIKE OTHER THAN A FEW VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THINGS ARE DRYING OUT AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE THINNING REVEALING SOME LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS BUT THE TREND OF CLEARING OUT SHOULD SLOWLY TAKE PLACE
THIS EVENING WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS UPSTREAM. WINDS GUSTS UP AROUND
15-20KTS FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR FREEZING IN SE VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND BE GONE LATE SATURDAY EARLY SUNDAY
GIVING WAY TO COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP BRINGING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TOMORROW THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. THAT SHIFT IN THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS BEFORE WARMING TO THE UPPER
30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEGINNING A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.

MOVING TOWARDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY.
BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECT THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z
BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN THE EVENING. TEMPS DURING
THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY
SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW WITH OVERCAST SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT SATURDAY... PROGRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD
CONSISTENCY OBSERVED BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING EWD ACROSS
MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING MONDAY NIGHT. LINGERING
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY DRIVE SCATTERED
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE CARRIED
30-50 POPS ACROSS THE HIR TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A DUSTING TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. SHOULD
SEE PARTIAL CLEARING DURING TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR THE END OF MARCH...HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 30S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND DEVELOPING MID-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD. PROSPECTS FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SHOULD SEE A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF STRONG P-GRADIENT. WITH
850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO +3 TO +5C ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...AND MID-UPR 40S EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE...BUT IN THE ABSENCE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS
POINT. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH PROSPECTS FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE AFTN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE
MID-UPR 30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. AT THIS
POINT...RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STILL REACH THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT
MAY SEE THAT HAPPEN BY LATE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CAA LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR CLR OVERNIGHT ALL TAF
SITES AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS SUBSIDE. KEPT A TEMPO OF MVFR -SN AT KSLK, OTHERWISE DRY.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS THROUGH 00-06Z, AND
ALTHOUGH TYPICALLY OVERDONE IT DOES MATCH ONGOING CONDITIONS. HAVE
KEPT CLOUDS IN THROUGH 00-04Z THEN BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH
RIDGE TO WEST WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS WELL MIXED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION TO 15-20KTS AT
ABOUT 2500 FT. MIXING ENDS AFTER SUNSET AND TOWARD MORNING KMSS
AND KSLK WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THEIR
EAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT OF
GREAT LAKES. 06-12Z MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS
POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SLK/MPV)...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIR
TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON


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