Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
144
FXUS61 KBTV 110550
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. SNOW WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS
FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON
THUS FAR FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW
ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1212 AM EST THURSDAY...COLDER TEMPS AND INCREASING WIND
CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING WIND
CHILLS OF 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW IN THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED 10 TO
20 MPH WINDS DURING THURSDAY PM.

EXTENDED CURRENT TREND OF COOLING TEMPS RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
925 MB TEMPS FALL FROM -13 AT 12Z TO -20C BY 00Z WITH 925 WINDS
INCREASING FROM 15 TO 25 KTS. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL FALLING IN THE
NORTH AND NEAR STEADY IN THE SOUTH. BY AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH TO LOW 20S AT KVSF IN THE SOUTHEAST.

CONTINUED AREAS/PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW, SNOW SHOWERS, OR FLURRIES
WITH A LIGHT DUSTING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WNW UPSLOPE FLOW
IS BEING BLOCKED SOMEWHAT WITH FROUDE NUMBERS AROUND OR LESS THAN
1. THE BLOCKING CAUSING SOME MORE PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT SNOW UP
AGAINST THE GREENS. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE SHORT- LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES IN TOWARDS MORNING WHICH COULD
ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE MORNING
RUSH AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY, TREND CONTINUES FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS AND
ADIRONDACKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE, EVEN ON THE SUMMITS WHERE WE CAN SEE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3" RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COMING TO
AN END AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IN THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKE REGION. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO REACH ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY BY MID
MORNING. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, 925MB-
850MB WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL HELP LAKE EFFECT STRETCH TO THE
NORTHERN AND NWRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT
BAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS, BEFORE WEAKENING COME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF 25- 30 TO 1
POSSIBLE. WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A QUARTER INCH...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, HALF INCH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NY
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND THE GREEN MTNS. 2 INCHES OR
LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING...NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO
IN AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. ANOTHER RUN
AT WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NY
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
TEA KETTLING TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT AT SLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE PREVAILING IN THE TAF
EXCEPT FOR SLK. WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF/NEILES/SISSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NEILES



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.