Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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802
FXUS61 KBTV 171807
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
107 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast through the eastern Great Lakes
today and up the St. Lawrence Valley tonight and Wednesday. A mix of
wintry precipitation will begin in northern New York late this
afternoon, and spread east across Vermont tonight, and continue
area-wide through Wednesday. Be ready for slow travel
conditions tonight and for the morning commute on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 107 PM EST Tuesday...The only change to the forecast was
to raise max temperatures for today up a degree or two, as
temperatures in some locations already warmer than forecast.

Previous discussion from 621 AM EST Tuesday...No changes to
this first part of the forecast, so far tracking along well.
Temperatures in the teens and lower 20s, with clear skies. KMSS
reporting 6sm br but otherwise no other obstructions to
visibility. A quiet first half of the day as the surface ridge
shifts east ahead of our next approaching storm system. Light
east to southeast low level flow ahead of the low, with
increasing clouds already seen approaching on IR satellite. High
temps today in the low to mid 30s.

500 mb shortwave trough will move out of the great lakes toward
00z and track west to east across the forecast area between
00-12z Wednesday. Southerly flow ahead of the shortwave will
spread warm frontal precipitation across the region beginning
after 18z in northern NY and into VT after about 22z, and
continue overnight into Wednesday. Diurnal cooling will be
offset by warm air advection tonight with a mix of precip types.
Western portion of New York zones the most susceptible to the
biggest mix, where warm air intruding up the St. Lawrence valley
will allow for freezing rain to mix with sleet and snow. In
Vermont, below freezing temps through the low levels will keep
precip type more toward all snow although there will be a brief
period at the onset of the event with sleet mixed with the snow
for most all Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom.

With east to southeast flow below 850 mb expect to see greater
snowfall accumulations on the eastern slopes of the Green
Mountains and to a lesser extent on the northeast slopes of the
Adirondacks. Up to a half inch of precip forecast, equating to 3
to 6 inches of snow in east central VT and eastern Essex County
NY. Lesser snowfall amounts toward St. Lawrence Valley where
sleet/freezing rain mix lower snow ratios. Snow accumulations
out there to be generally 1-2 inches, with up to a tenth inch of
ice, mainly in southern St. Lawrence county. Southeast
downslope flow in the northern Champlain Valley, especially
northwest Vermont. This will keep NW Vermont out of the advisory
with 2-4 inch snow totals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...Combination of low pressure pulling
east off the New England coast and shortwave energy passing well
north of the area will keep some lingering moisture across the
North Country for the short term period, with northwest flow
supporting higher chances for precipitation across the higher
elevations as compared to the valleys. Thermal profiles support
ptype mainly as snow through mid- morning Thursday but a warming
boundary layer will support a change to rain showers by
Thursday afternoon, though by then most of any precipitation
around should be waning as high pressure begins to build in from
the Ohio Valley. Lows Wednesday night remain very mild by mid-
January standards in the mid 20s to low 30s, and Thursday`s even
warmer pushing into the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...We`ve got a very quiet and very warm
period upcoming for the end of the week through the weekend as
surface high pressure settles over the region and strong ridging
develops aloft. Little to no precipitation is expected through
the period, with the big story being several days of abnormally
warm temperature with double digit daily departures from normal
likely. Mean 925-850mb temps hover right around 0C through the
period supporting highs in the mid/upper 30s to low/mid 40s each
day, and lows generally mid 20s to low 30s, a far cry from late
January standards of 20s for highs and single digits for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...ceilings will continue to lower through
00Z Wednesday. Expecting precipitation to begin at the TAF sites
between 22Z Tuesday-01Z Wednesday. Bufkit forecast soundings
suggesting mainly snow across the Vermont, with some sleet mixed
in at times across southern Vermont. Expecting a mix of snow,
sleet, and a period early this evening of freezing rain across
northern New York. Ceilings will lower to IFR across the region
by 02Z Wednesday.

18Z Wednesday - 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in periods of light
snow.

00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR
rain/snow showers.

00Z Friday through 00Z Monday...VFR, as a ridge of high pressure
will be over the region.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for VTZ006>012-017>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ029-087.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ028-030-031-034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...WGH/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...WGH



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