Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 220854
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
454 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN TRANSITION
RIGHT NOW AS LOW PRESSURE IS TAKING SHAPE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND
ALLOW FOR MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SEEING ANOTHER
AREA OF RAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT EASTWARD INTO
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. THIS MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE
AS A RESULT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURE DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM
EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER
LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REASON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE MOVES DOWN ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR AT BTV WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH TENDENCY TOWARD MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NEW ENGLAND. DRIZZLE AND
PATCHES OF RAIN WILL BECOME PREVAILING IFR BY AFTERNOON AT MOST
TAF SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO AVOID THE
RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 TO 15
KNOTSWITH SOME G20 KT AT KMSS. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY ON FROM A CONTINUED NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS KBTV/KPBG/KMSS...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED
DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON



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