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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230240
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...

NOT TOO MUCH TO UPDATE TONIGHT. WEATHER PATTERN IS UNFOLDING MORE
OR LESS AS ANTICIPATED...SO FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE. DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELIES OVER THE EASTERN BEARTOOTHS AND
RAISED POPS CLOSER TO LIKELIES OVER THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AS
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THAT AREA AS NOTED ON RADAR. JUST MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS THIS EVENING AND TEMPS OVERNIGHT. STC

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE THEIR WAY
AROUND THE LOW AND EJECT ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE WEST OF BILLINGS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM BILLINGS WEST
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE IN
PART BY AN EASTERLY SURFACE WIND WHICH HAS ALLOWED A LOW STRATUS
DECK TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. LIVINGSTON HAS REMAINED IN
THE 40S ALL DAY EXCEPT THE PAST HOUR WHEN THEY BROKE 50 DEGREES.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND...DEWPOINTS ARE SURPRISINGLY
A BIT LOW AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW THE CAP OVER THE LIVINGSTON AREA WEAKENING THIS EVENING SO
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WEST OF BILLINGS AS
SHEAR REMAINS QUITE GOOD. HOWEVER...CAPE IS QUITE LIMITED AND
MAINLY OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND THERE IS ALSO NOT
MUCH OF ANY DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD TO TRIGGER TOO MUCH AT
THIS TIME.

SAME PATTERN HOLDS THURSDAY WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST TOWARD BILLINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
WIND SHEAR SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH FOR FALLON
AND CARTER COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY STRONG CAP ACROSS OUR
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...GIVEN UPPER LOW PLACEMENT WELL WEST OF THE AREA...NO
STRONG DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE EAST TO HELP ERODE THE
CAP SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS LIMITED.

UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO CANADA FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
QUITE A BIT TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

UNSETTLED SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL UPPER LOWS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NW. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST...AS PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF
MOISTURE MERGE OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF STRONG INSTABILITY BASED ON MODEL LIFTED INDICES AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER AREAS E
OF KBIL THROUGH MON. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
INSTABILITY...SO THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS BASED
ON HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE...THERE WAS A
MODERATE TO HIGH AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD IN TERMS OF POPS...AS THE
GFS AND ECWMF VARIED IN HOW THEY HANDLED THE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF SCATTERED POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL AND HAVE MADE ONLY A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEW MODEL DATA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WERE ALSO ON TRACK GIVEN FORECAST 700 MB MIXDOWN
TEMPERATURES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEST OF
KBIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KBIL...KLVM AND
KSHR BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS FROM RETURNING TO KMLS.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESS TO A KSHR-KBIL LINE BY EVENING. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/073 050/075 049/077 053/080 053/077 051/078 053/077
    44/T    42/T    12/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 045/065 041/070 039/078 041/080 042/078 041/076 043/075
    66/T    62/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 048/077 050/078 047/079 053/082 052/080 051/080 054/080
    32/T    22/T    12/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 049/072 051/078 052/079 057/083 058/079 054/080 058/080
    11/N    22/T    23/T    33/T    44/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 046/074 052/079 049/081 055/085 052/081 052/082 054/081
    11/N    12/T    12/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 044/066 047/075 050/073 056/077 056/077 052/077 057/077
    11/N    12/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 045/074 046/075 045/079 048/083 048/079 046/077 051/078
    22/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS