Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010238
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
838 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...

MOUNTAIN-WAVE-INDUCED CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LEEWARD SIDE OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS MAY STAY
MORE OR LESS ANCHORED IN PLACE AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW A SIMILAR
IDEA...SO WE INCREASED FORECAST CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. WE ALSO INCREASED LOWS JUST
A BIT IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER RIDGETOPS OUT OF RESPECT TO THAT
CLOUD COVER...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE 18 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BUT HAVE
DIVERGED A BIT FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS
BEEN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND
THIS IS ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES TO BEGIN TO SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WINDS
IN MILES CITY AND BAKER HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT BUT STILL RELATIVELY
LIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WILL
PROVIDE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A
FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BUT OVERALL A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT LOOKS ON TAP.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA PULLING IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER MILD DAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MODELS STILL PROG THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA REMAINING TO OUR WEST. IN FACT...THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOW A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THEY
WERE SHOWING LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIKELY ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS. SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FOOTHILLS BUT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LOOKS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HOOLEY


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS REMAIN STEADY TODAY SHOWING A ZONAL FLOW TO RIDGE DOMINANT
PATTERN WITH A DISTURBANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING THE ONLY REAL SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. FAST WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAST MOVING
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT DOWNSLOPE WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR ALL BUT WEST FACING
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY FOR A
DRY DAY. ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.
ECMWF BRINGS THIS FEATURE ACROSS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND
THUS PROVIDES A BETTER SHOT FOR SHOWERS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
LOW/CLIMO TYPE POPS IN ALREADY AND THAT LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WEST
TO 40S EAST. DOWNSLOPE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GAP
FLOW WINDS OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS.

LOOKING AT MODELS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND NOT SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT OR ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
INTO SATURDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/067 041/049 032/051 032/059 039/061 039/063 044/060
    00/B    36/W    41/B    01/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 043/066 038/044 028/046 028/051 037/058 037/060 040/058
    02/W    88/W    42/W    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W
HDN 035/070 034/051 028/053 026/062 032/062 033/065 038/061
    00/B    24/W    41/B    01/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 032/067 038/050 029/048 026/059 034/059 033/061 040/059
    00/B    22/W    32/W    01/U    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 035/070 039/053 031/048 027/059 036/060 035/062 039/061
    00/B    11/B    21/B    01/U    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 028/064 039/051 028/042 025/054 032/056 032/057 037/055
    00/B    01/N    12/W    01/U    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 034/073 040/059 030/050 021/062 029/063 031/064 036/062
    00/B    24/W    42/W    01/U    11/B    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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