Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 181554
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
954 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

WE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TODAY WHILE INCREASING THE
POPS SOMEWHAT IN MANY AREAS IN RESPECT TO THE SHIELD OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS
MORNING. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES TOWARD MILES CITY...BUT RADAR TRENDS ARE ENOUGH FOR US
TO INCREASE POPS THAT DIRECTION AFTER 18 UTC TOO. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN THE ID PANHANDLE AND SO
WE DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH LOWERING HIGHS RIGHT NOW...BUT
IF CLOUDS LINGER TOO LONG THEN OUR FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM LIVINGSTON TOWARD BILLINGS. WE
WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON BECAUSE THE CHANCE OF
ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE TIED TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WE ATTAIN.
SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...EXITING
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE
AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE THAT LIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALREADY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
RESULT IN SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION FOR AREAS FROM BILLINGS
WESTWARD. BEST UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
DECENT CAPES DEVELOP FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LINGERED SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL
TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PRE-FRONTAL MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INTO E/SE MONTANA WHERE
RECORDS IN THE MID 90S WILL BE APPROACHED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND SYSTEM...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS FELL OUT OF AGREEMENT LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS CHANGING FROM RUN-TO-RUN. ALSO NOTED THAT THE GFS
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED INCREASING SPREAD BEGINNING ON MON AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONFIDENCE DURING CERTAIN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A DRY RIDGE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL. THINGS START TO FALL APART ON MON WHEN AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING PRECIPITATION N INTO
MT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OVER WY. WENT WITH A
MODEL COMPROMISE AND HAD SOME MOUNTAIN POPS. ON TUE...THE ECMWF
BROUGHT THE LOW INTO E MT WHILE THE LOW BECAME DIFFUSE ON THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF WAS WETTER THAN THE GFS. THUS WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE WITH POPS ACROSS THE S. BOTH MODELS THEN HAD A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FOR WED THROUGH THU BUT HANDLED THE
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. THIS WAS A PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MODELS CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM RUN-TO-RUN. KEPT WED DRY FOR
NOW AND SPREAD POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND CRAZYS
TODAY WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NE BIG HORNS TODAY AND
WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 059/080 051/076 051/074 052/074 053/076 054/076
    5/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 083 052/078 044/077 044/077 044/075 047/077 048/076
    5/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    11/U
HDN 088 057/082 050/078 048/077 053/076 050/078 053/079
    4/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 088 059/082 051/076 047/076 050/076 051/076 055/077
    4/T 42/T    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 092 059/082 050/077 047/075 051/075 051/075 052/076
    1/B 33/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 088 057/081 049/075 044/072 045/072 047/073 051/076
    2/T 33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 091 056/079 048/076 046/075 049/073 046/074 049/076
    2/T 43/T    20/U    00/U    22/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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