Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 231414
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE: SEVERAL CHGS MADE THIS UPDATE. THE FIRST WAS TO
INCREASE POPS FOR FAR NRN ME TO HI CHC CAT FOR THIS AFTN...WITH
SAT IMAGERY AND SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING A HEALTHY MID LVL
S/WV-VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT QUICKLY
APCHG NRN ME FROM CNTRL QB. 6 HRLY QPFS FOR THE 12-18Z AND 18-24Z
PDS WERE ALSO INCREASED OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA BY BLENDING THE 03Z
SREF WITH THE 06Z GFS (WITH THIS GFS RUN TO AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
QPF COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS TO USE ALONE). LOW CHC POPS WERE THEN
CORRESPONDINGLY DISPLACED SWRD INTO N CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION.

NEXT...WE NEEDED TO INCREASE WINDS...SPCLY WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN
IMMEDIATELY WITH AND BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WITH A
SHORT WINDOW OF STRONGER WINDS ALF WITH STEEP SFC-1KM LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN PD. LASTLY...FCST HRLY TEMPS THRU AFTN WERE
UPDATED TO UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS. WE RE-POSTED THE HI TEMP AN HR
OR TWO EARLIER THIS AFTN THEN THE PRIOR UPDATE THINKING THAT GREATER
CLDNSS AND THE PRESENCE OF SHWRS THIS AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FALLING TEMPS...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...BY MID AFTN.

PRIOR DISC: THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A COOL GUSTY WESTERLY BREEZE TODAY. A BIT OF
MOISTURE POOLED IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SWING
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING
THE MIDDAY. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING THE AIR TO BECOME COLD AND
CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. FROST IS LIKELY IN MANY CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SPOTS TOWARD MORNING.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BETTER
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GUSTY
WEST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE AIR BECOMING CALM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 945 AM UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS AND MODEL
TRENDS...WE WERE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR
MZ052...BUT NEEDED TO XTND THE SCA FOR OUTER MZS050-051 A FEW
MORE HRS BASED ON REPORTED BUOY WV HTS OF 6 TO 7 FT.

ORGNL DISC...AN SCA WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS OVER 5 FT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.