Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 231401
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1001 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds along the southern New England coast today.
A cold front will move into northern Maine this evening and will
move to the Downeast coast by Monday morning. A slow moving area
of low pressure will move up the Middle Atlantic and New England
coasts Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 am update...
Only minor updates to sky and initial temps were made with this
update. Some breaks are showing in the clouds across the CWA as
of mid-morning, but most locations are still broken or overcast.
However, continued clearing is expected, especially for central
and Downeast areas, which could become mostly sunny this
afternoon. Clouds will likely linger a bit longer up north, but
there could be a period of partly cloudy skies this afternoon
before the high clouds from the next system move in from the
west. Overall, the forecast remains on track.

Original Discussion...
CWA rmns under a stagnant airmass as surface low is gradually
dissipating overhead. Low clouds and patchy fog will gradually
erode in the next few hours as high pressure builds in from the
west with northwest winds increasing.

Ridge wl crest ovr the area late this mrng with winds turning to
the southwest. This wl result in clearing skies this aftn along
with warmer H9 temps. Maxes wl approach 50F acrs the north with
interior Downeast possibly hitting 60F. Immediate coast wl be
hard-pressed to see 50F tho not out of the realm of
possibilities as they will just receive a glancing blow of
onshore flow.

Surface cold front will be weakening as it drops out of Canada
tonight. Not expecting any more than isold showers acrs nrn
Aroostook as showers fizzle under elongated shear axis. Expect
another round of fog across Downeast zones late tonight as cold
front eventually dissipates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will wash out just off the Downeast coast
Monday morning. The brunt of the cold air pushes east from
Quebec and into Newfoundland, but it does brush northern Maine
with a sharp contrast in the air mass from far northern Maine to
the southern parts of the state. Highs will range from the low
40s in the Saint John Valley, but closer to 60 degrees in the
Greater Bangor Region. The day will be dry along with a partly
to mostly sunny sky. Monday night will be mainly clear, but with
an increase in clouds after midnight across the southern half
of the CWA in advance of low pressure that will will be taking
shape along the Carolina Coast. Temperatures in some of the
northwest valleys could dip into the teens, with 20s common in
the north, and 30s closer to the coast where clouds will be on
the increase. On Tuesday, the low begins to slowly move up
toward the Middle Atlantic Coast. Clouds will lower and thicken
across the Downeast Region with some light rain to break out
during the afternoon. Clouds will increase in the north, but it
looks likely that northern areas remain dry. The Canadian as it
did last night remains the odd operational model in bringing
rain to far northern areas late in the day. Sided more with the
less progressive solutions as the system is cut off from the mid
level flow and will very likely be slow moving. Temperatures
Tuesday will likely be coolest along the immediate coast where
the clouds thicken up and the rain begins to develop during the
afternoon. All of the guidance indicates that all of the
precipitation will be in the form of rain with no snow this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure continues to work slowly up the coast Tue night and
Wed and should end up in the Gulf of Maine by late in the day.
Periods of rain are expected during this time, with the best
chance of rain across the eastern half of the CWA. In fact, some
models indicate little in the way of rain in far Western Maine,
with the heaviest QPF across our southeast zones. There remain
considerable differences in the amount of QPF between the models
with amounts ranging from a half an inch to as much as a couple
of inches of rain. This will need to be watched for potential
hydro issues, especially the smaller streams, but if heavier
rain materializes also the mainstem rivers which continue to run
high, but have come down quite a bit and should easily be able
to handle an inch or so of rainfall. The rain should come to an
end across the region Wed night and will be followed by a dry
and milder day Thu. Model differences again show up at the end
of the week regarding the timing of a cold front Fri and
whether Fri ends up to be a very warm day or if the front comes
through quicker like the GFS with a cooler air mass. The model
differences just continue to amplify by next weekend and
forecast confidence is very low as some models are wet and other
mainly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR first several hours hours at BGR and BHB this
morning. Northern terminals have scattered out the LIFR deck
with MVFR cigs predominant. MVFR continues all sites until
16z-18z this afternoon, then becoming VFR. At FVE expect MVFR
showers between 02z and 06z as weak cold front moves through.
CAR, PQI and HUL likely to see brief period of MVFR cigs toward
end of TAF valid time. For southern terminals expect IFR vsbys
to develop just ahead of front after 05z tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR expected Mon and Mon night with conditions to
deteriorate at the Downeast terminals during the afternoon Tue to
MVFR as rain moves into the area from the south.  Variable
conditions Tue night into Wed night with IFR and MVFR much of the
time with the chance of some periods of LIFR in rain and fog.
Conditions will improve to VFR either later Wed night or during
the day Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through
tomorrow morning. Areas of fog will develop over the waters late
tonight.

SHORT TERM: As low pressure moves slowly up the coast Mon and
Tue conditions may approach small craft advisory levels by Tue
night and continue into Wed.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/Kredensor
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Farrar/Kredensor/CB
Marine...Farrar/Kredensor/CB



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