Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 060022
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
722 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
705 PM UPDATE: ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE FALLING SNFL
OCCURRING OVR SE PTNS OF THE FA ERLY THIS EVE...HIGH END SN RATES
HAVE ENDED OVR THE ADV AND WNTR STM WRNG AREAS...SO WE LET THEM
ALL EXPIRE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH...PERHAPS LCLY UP TO 2
ADDITIONAL INCHES...BUT WITH THE DAMAGE DONE AND WHATS LEFT OF
STEADY SN ABOUT TO FINISH BY MOVG INTO NB..NO NEED TO XTND ANY
WNTR HDLNS ATTM.

ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST OF THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
LOW IS STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SNOW ENDING. SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGEST ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. ALL WINTER STORM
WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES BEFORE ENDING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST MAINE. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
DOWNEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATER SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LIGHT
SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH IN NORTHERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN
REMAIN STEADY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONDITIONS BECOME RATHER
UNSTABLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS POSSIBLE. A
RATHER DEEP LAYER OF INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME HEAVIER SQUALLS WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY PROPAGATE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE FOLLOWED NAM12 GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. VARIOUS IN-
HOUSE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ARE GIVING VERY STRONG SIGNALS FOR
THIS FRONT. COLDER AIR AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
FOR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL REACH THE MID 30S TOWARDS BANGOR
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL WILL PRODUCE A COOL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AS THE DAY DUE TO BOTH STRATOCUMULUS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ALONG THE DOWN EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING AND
SLOWLY MOVE THE POPS NORTH TO COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND ROTATES AROUND THE BROAD MIDWESTERN
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND ONLY
GIVE US CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE
LOW WILL BE SLIDING OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT NOW
APPEARS THIS SECOND LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. WEAK FLOW AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE BUT POORLY
ORGANIZED TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE EAST COAST. A THIRD, VERY WEAK LOW
MAY TRY TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY
ONLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE PUSHING A NEW
MASS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER
LOW WILL POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF SOME VERY COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR AT BGR AND BHB THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR HUL
NORTHWARD...EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FVE AND CAR WILL LIKELY
HAVE A FEW PERIODS OF IFR IN SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...A SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE FROM FVE EARLY MORNING
AND REACH HUL BY LATE MORNING. THIS LINE COULD FEATURE BRIEF
PERIODS OF 1/4SM VIS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE LOWERED THE GLW OVR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 TO AN
SCA WITH WIND GUSTS STRUGGLING TO REACH 30 KT OVR OUR WATERS...
OTHERWISE THE GLW CONTS OVR THE OUTER WATERS.

ORGNL DISC...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITERIA
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF SUCH SHORT DURATION
THAT IT`S PROBABLY BEST TO KEEP THE HEADLINE IN PLACE. A GALE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.