Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 240056
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
756 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift north of our area tonight. High pressure will
build in from Canada Wednesday into Thursday and crest over the
region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7:56 pm update: Have cancelled the remaining winter weather
advisories. Temperatures across central portions of the CWA
range from the low 30s in parts of the central highlands to near
50 degrees in northern Washington County. There is one last
batch of precipitation upstream in NH, and there could be a
brief period of freezing rain later this evening as it moves
across the central highlands. After collaboration with WFO Gray
the plan is to drop the advisories, but may issue a SPS later
this evening for areas where temperatures are still near
freezing. Also, extended the winter storm warning for northern
Aroostook County until 3 am. Most areas north of Houlton are
getting some decent freezing rain. The freezing rain will end
late this evening, but a period of snow may affect far northern
Aroostook County, especially in the Saint John Valley after
midnight with a few inches of snow possible. Have also made some
adjustments to the marine headlines (see below).

Previous discussion...
Low pressure will be to our west this evening as secondary low
pressure lifts across north central Maine. Above freezing air at
the surface should be across the entire region except western
and northwestern Aroostook county where the secondary surface
low will hold cold air near the surface. Some freezing rain and
sleet will continue in the northwest with a bit of rain, drizzle
and fog further south. The main batch of precipitation will
quickly slide east and away early this evening. However, a
trailing upper level shortwave trough will slide across the far
north later this evening as cold air returns. This will bring
period of snow overnight amounting to an additional 2 to 3
inches across western and northwestern Aroostook county. Low
pressure will lift away to the north on Wednesday as that
trailing shortwave slides east. Skies will clear Downeast
Wednesday and partially clear over the north as high pressure
begins to build in from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally fair weather expected Wednesday night through Friday.
Intensifying low pressure will continue to move northeast
across Newfoundland/Labrador as a ridge of high pressure at the
surface builds across the area through Friday. The only caveat
will be an upper level disturbance crossing the region on
Thursday. This will keep more in the way of cloud cover across
the far north later Thursday and into Thursday night. There is
some concern Thursday night that cloud cover may persist across
the far north, with some soundings indicating the potential for
a subsidence inversion and more in the way of clouds through
Thursday night. We were a bit more optimistic in showing partial
clearing toward Friday morning. However, this could affect low
temperatures Thursday night and limit any radiational cooling as
well. Anyway, looks as if gradient may hold overnight Thursday
with ridge axis still to our west limiting radiational cooling
potential. Friday should see mainly sunny skies as the high
moves east. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be a bit
below normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure continues to slide east Friday night with
increasing clouds in advance of an approaching warm front. The
warm front will lift across the region Saturday allowing
temperatures to rise to above normal levels. There could also be
the chance for snow or rain showers with the passage of the
front. A cold front will approach Saturday night. This is where
the forecast starts to get interesting as we go into the Sunday
night through Monday time frame. Models are indicating the
potential for a wave of low pressure to move northeast along the
boundary later Sunday into Monday with the potential for rain
Sunday changing to snow Sunday night into Monday from north to
south. There is quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance
regarding the track and the placement of any potential wave
moving up along the front. Also, this is quite the change in
most of the operational model guidance from yesterday at this
time. For now, have used the model blended approach with likely
pops Sunday night into Monday. Conditions begin to improve by
Tuesday. Temperatures on Sunday will be above normal and then
trend cooler for the beginning of the next work week, although
still a bit above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR and LIFR conditions in low clouds and freezing
rain and sleet across the far north and rain and fog elsewhere
can be expected this evening. Conditions will improve to VFR
Downeast after midnight and will be VFR on Wednesday. IFR
conditions can be expected over the north later tonight with IFR
conditions Wednesday improving to MVFR. LLWS was observed on the
00z KCAR sounding with 45 knots of wind at 2k ft agl out of the
south. The LLWS should push east of the region by around 03z.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions Wednesday night and much of Thursday.
There is the potential for MVFR cigs across the northern
terminals Thursday night into Friday morning. VFR regionwide
Friday night and Saturday. Low pressure could begin to affect
the terminal by Sunday with potential MVFR/IFR in rain changing
to snow late in the day.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A gale warning will continue tonight for south winds
gusting up to 40 kt with a wind shift to west later tonight on
the coastal waters. Have transitioned the intra coastal waters
to a small craft advisory with this update through the day
Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions will likely persist
Wednesday night and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Precipitation Downeast has ranged from 1 to 2 inches with
locally higher amounts across coastal Hancock and coastal
Washington counties. The combination of rainfall and snowmelt
will result in rises on rivers and streams, especially tonight
into Wednesday. Ice jams are in place on the Piscataquis and
Pleasant Rivers as well as on the Kenduskeag Stream. There is
concern that these ice jams could break up and move with the
warmer temps and rainfall. This could lead to water backing up
behind the jams leading to the possibility of flooding.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ001-002.
     Flood Watch until 4 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ011-015>017-
     029>032.
     Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ052.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/CB
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Duda
Marine...Bloomer/CB/Duda
Hydrology...CB



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