Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 232346
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
746 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build east from the Great Lakes region
tonight into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
745 PM Update...
Adjusted the hrly temps/dewpoints to fit w/the latest
conditions. Surface analysis showed high pres ridging across the
region from the Ohio Valley while a trof of low pres is situated
over Quebec. Satl imagery showed some clouds moving e from
Quebec aligning w/the cold front. The latest RAP and NAM12
bring some of this cloudiness into western and northern areas
overnight. The daycrew`s assessment has this handled well
bringing these clouds in overnight. Winds look like they will
stay up some overnight(above 5 mph) alleviating any threat for
fog.

See marine section below.

Previous Discussion...
A broad ridge of high pressure over northwestern Ontario will
dominate area weather tonight into Thursday. Cooler and much
less humid air arrives this evening and will continue filtering
into the area overnight. Tonight`s lows will be some 15 to 20
degrees less than last night for many locations in the forecast
area. With decreasing H850 temperatures tonight into Thursday,
highs on Thursday will be around 5 degrees cooler than today
with low humidity for the entire area. Winds will tend to be
less gusty, but H850 moisture should remain plentiful for the
entire area in a northwesterly flow. As a result, will specify
partly sunny conditions by afternoon for all zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will gradually build toward the region
Thursday night through Saturday. An upper level trof will
approach Thursday night, then remain across the region Friday
through Saturday while several disturbances move through the
trof. Expect diurnal cloud development both Friday and Saturday,
most extensive across the north and mountains where isolated
afternoon showers are also possible. With the loss of diurnal
heating, showers end during the evenings along with decreasing
clouds. Temperatures will be at slightly below normal levels
Friday/Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A trough of lower pressure will be over southern Maine and
higher pressure will be building into northern Maine, at the
start of the period. By Sunday morning the trough will move to
the coastal waters. A low pressure system will track east along
the trough Sunday into Monday. The ridge will continue to build
over the region and will remain over the area until early
Thursday morning. A low tracking across central Quebec with a
cold front trailing southwest into the eastern Great Lakes
region early Thursday morning will move into northwestern Maine
by the end of the period Thursday morning.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will be VFR with excellent vis through
the period. There is a chance of brief MVFR cigs at FVE Thursday
morning.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region
Thursday night through Monday. Could have a slight chance of
afternoon showers across the north and mountains
Friday/Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 745 PM Update...Cancelled SCA for Hazardous Seas as
waves have dropped below 6 ft w/winds around 10 kts.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt/MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Hewitt/MCW/Norcross
Marine...Hewitt/MCW/Norcross



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