Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 311920
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
320 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THESE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. IT`LL
BE A LITTLE LESS HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AREAWIDE.

THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS
SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR
LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5
C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB CAPES OF 1100+J/KG,
THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST 600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR
MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT, BUT MAINLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY.


SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...HASTINGS/BERDES



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