Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 010047
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
847 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAKENING SUPPORT FROM
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THE REMAINING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DECREASING WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...THOUGH EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS PRECIPITATION WILL END
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL THEN BE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
50 TO THE MID 50S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S DOWNEAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG COULD PERSIST ALONG
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO MOISTURE MOVING NORTH OVER THE COLDER WATERS.
HUMID AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON A SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE COMBINED WITH SOME LOWER HEIGHTS FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. TEMPS FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE FIRST OF AUGUST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK AND RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 NORTH EXCEPT ONLY NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHERN MAINE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO START NEXT WEEK.  DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY MID WEEK...HOWEVER DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
EARLY AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
OCCUR WITH ANY FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LOCALLY OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IS
POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY DOWNEAST TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN PATCHY
NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING FOG.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...NORCROSS/DUDA
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA






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