Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 202032

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
332 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

High pressure will remain over the area tonight. A weak cold
front will cross the region on Saturday. High pressure will build
north of the region Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will
intensify along the mid Atlantic coast Monday and will move north
toward the area on Tuesday.


Weak high pressure will remain over the area tonight and then
dissipate on Saturday as a new high rebuilds to our north.
Tranquil weather will continue tonight and Saturday with the
greatest forecast challenge being cloud cover. A mid level layer
of stratus remains across the area and will likely persist tonight
into Saturday thinning a bit at times. Temperatures will run
nearly 15 degrees above normal tonight and Saturday with lows
tonight in the 20s across the area and highs Saturday above
freezing across the region.


Above Normal temps expected for this term and for the longer term
w/a blocking pattern in place.

A quiet weekend in store w/teh exception of some flurries or snow
showers Saturday evening into Sunday an upper disturbance swings
across the region. Temps on Sunday will run at least 5 to 10
degrees above normal for late January. Colder air is expected to
slide down into the region Sunday night into Monday a high pres
slides across se Canada. Overnight lows Sunday night are forecast
to around 10F or so across the north and west while central and
downeast should see upper teens to lower 20s.


Things will get interesting come Tuesday into Wednesday as low
pres moves up the coast. Discrepancy still holds w/the track of
low and temperatures.

The 12Z run of the Canadian Global & ECMWF remain colder
w/tracking the low across Gulf of Maine and near the Bay of
Fundy. This would mean frozen/freezing precip going to all rain
across central and downeast areas while northern and western areas
remain in frozen/freezing precip. The operational run of the GFS
continued to be warmer w/its 06z & 12z runs bringing the low
across eastern Maine and the potential for rain all the way to the
Crown of Maine. Interestingly enough, the the GFS Ensemble is
cooler w/a track of the low across Nova Scotia somewhat similar to
the ECMWF & Canadian solutions. One thing to note is that the 12z
run of the ECMWF did trend warmer but still keeps northern Maine
colder. There does appear to be a consensus however that there
will be a decent warm layer near 850-700 mbs. This layer
overriding the colder air in the blyr would lend support for sleet
and possible a prolonged period of it across the north and west
after some snow and freezing rain. Further s into central and
downeast, snow to freezing precip and then rain. Attm, decided to
play it along this route but still not confident how far the
warmer air will intrude. Still some uncertainty in the track and
temperature profile. Confidence is high on the precip chances and
that there could be a heavy dose of QPF. Used a blended solution
for this forecast cycle to illustrate the freezing precip
potential. At any rate, Tuesday into Wednesday looks to be messy
to say the least.

The other concern will be strong winds right along the coast
w/splashover possible at the time of high tide. There is still
plenty of time to assess this event.

All the model guidance in agreement that the storm is expected to
lift across the Maritimes Wednesday night into Thursday w/some
colder air draining back into the region. Temps however are still
forecast to remain above the norms for late January.


NEAR TERM: Conditions will vary between MVFR and VFR across the
north tonight and Saturday. Mainly VFR conditions are expected
Downeast tonight and Saturday but occasional MVFR conditions are
possible at times.

SHORT TERM: MVFR cigs hold Saturday night into Sunday w/some IFR
for the northern terminals for Sunday. KBGR and KBHB should see
VFR taking hold on Sunday. VFR Sunday night for the northern
terminals. MVFR early Monday for KBGR and KBHB w/an ene flow
developing and then an improvement to VFR looks in order. The
northern terminals look like they will hold at VFR. Conditions are
expected to drop to MVFR and then IFR for all terminals w/a mixed
bag of precip possible.


NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA tonight and
Saturday as high pressure remains across the waters.

SHORT TERM: No headlines through Sunday. Conditions are forecast
to deteriorate to SCA levels later Sunday night into Monday 20-25
kt. The potential is there for Gales later Monday into Tuesday
w/ese winds increasing to 30-35 kt as the low lifts up along the
coast. Seas are forecast to build to a range of 10 to 15 kt by





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