Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 251640
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1240 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK WITH
MID SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 PM UPDATE...INCREASED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY ABOUT 3
DEGREES...5 DEGREE IN NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY FOR TODAY. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY TEMPS AND SKYCON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY 00Z THU THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND OFF THE EASTERN BOARD ALL THE WAY NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUE WITH SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY TO END EARLY-MID MORNING. THE AIR MASS
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 925H TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 6C AND TO 18-22C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS IS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR HIGHS
WELL INTO 80S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S. TUE NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS. THE WARM AIR MASS COMBINED
WITH THE COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE WATER THAT MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND
VERY HUMID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NW
OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
TURN STRONG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THU
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY AND VERY WARM
DAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ORGANIZE BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISLD TSTMS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY TUE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -SHRA AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON IN SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. MOSTLY VFR DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE TUE NIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR WED INTO FRI...BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WED INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TODAY.

SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW.  THE COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
LIMIT MIXING WITH THE WARM AIR MASS...BUT A LONG DURATION OF SW
FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. THE WARM AIR MASS WITH COLD OCEAN WATER WILL LIKELY COMBINE
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE
THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED...THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HAS RESULTED IN DRY FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORTON/CB
MARINE...NORTON/CB
FIRE WEATHER...


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