Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 030438
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1238 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY.
A NEW LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WATERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO COASTAL
AREAS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH OVERNIGHT/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING NE PER THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. MOST
AREAS TO THE SW HAVE BEGUN TO DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN AS WELL. SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM MODEL DOING WELL W/THE SETUP.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA.
AS IT DOES SO, TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE N AND W AS TEMPS FALL
BACK INTO THE LOW 30S. ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS TO THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRATIFORM RAIN HAS FINALLY REACHED THE STATE AS OF AN HR AGO.
PATCHY RAIN CONTS ACRS THE NORTH ALONG SFC TROF. EXPECT STEADY
RAIN WL MV INTO CWA SHORTLY AND WL OVERSPREAD AREA INTO THE EVNG
HRS AHD OF POTENT S/WV LIFTING INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD
LO-LVL MOISTURE WL CONTINUE AS PCPN PULLS EAST INTO CANADA LVG
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG PRESENT DRG THE OVRNGT. QPF AMNTS THRU MRNG
WL RANGE FM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER IN DOWNEAST AREAS
WHERE PW VALUES INCREASE TO NR 1.00 INCH AND 25-30KT LLJ WL BE
PRESENT THRU EARLY EVNG.

MAY SEE A VRY BRIEF TIMEFRAME FOR LGT SNOW TO MIX IN, MAINLY ACRS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW AROOSTOOK. MIN TEMPS WL BE ARND 33F ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BRDR SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
A DUSTING.

EXPECT TO SEE LOW CLDS AND FOG LINGERING THRU TUE MRNG WITH LITTLE
PCPN RMNG. MAXES ON TUE WL LKLY APPCH NORMAL VALUES WITH VRY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLD AIR BEING PULLED IN ON NRLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL, NOT TOO BAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN WEDGED
BACK INTO MAINE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, EJECTING SHORTWAVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT DOES SO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME
DECIDING EXACTLY WHAT WILL BECOME OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THE 02/12Z
NAM AND 02/00Z ECMWF TAKE THE SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
PERHAPS JUST BRUSH COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE 02Z/12Z GFS AND GEM BRING THE
SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO SHORE, SPREADING A DECENT SWATH OF RAIN INTO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES, WHICH
LEAD TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A MATURE LOW OVER DELMARVA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDING NE THROUGH NRN MAINE...WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
MAKER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL VERTICALLY STACK
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND REMAIN STATIONARY OVER DELMARVA/NJ THROUGH
EARLY SAT MRNG...THEN START DRIFTING OUT TO SEA. A NEW LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE JAMES BAY REGION...AND MOVE INTO WRN MAINE
EARLY SUN MRNG...AND EAST OF MAINE SUN AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...THEY ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. USED THE WINDGUST
BY FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BE IFR-MVFR NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR
KHUL NORTH TO KFVE WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE IFR OVERNIGHT IN -DZ AND FOG BEFORE RISING TO LOW MVFR BY MID
MORNING. FURTHER IMPROVMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY LOWER TO BELOW 3000 FT WITH VISIBILITIES HOVERING IN THE
MVFR RANGE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 4-5 FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. EXPECT WAVES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THRU 09Z. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME, A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT LOOK POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. IF ANY HEADLINES ARE NEEDED,
IT WOULD BE A LOW-END SCA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT


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