Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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369
FXUS61 KCAR 240744
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
344 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and a cold front will approach from the west
through mid week. A warm and humid airmass being drawn in on
southerly flow will bring the potential for widespread rain
through the day Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall is expected at
times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
986mb sfc low is located ovr NW Lake Huron as of this hour. Parent
system at upr lvls is lifting into the Great Lakes with another s/wv
rotating thru the Midwest. Leading edge of rain is currently fm
cntrl sxns of NY state down thru cntrl PA with latest guidance too
far back too the west as of 06z.

Closer to home, low clouds and fog hv slowly oozed north and just
beginning to encroach on PQI. Expect this vry slow trend wl continue
with areas fog gradually dvlpng acrs nrn zones this mrng under veil
of thin cirrus and increasing dwpts. Wl continue dense fog advisory
for Downeast areas this mrng thru 13z.

Warm advection showers being seen working north into srn New England
on increasing LLJ and wl monitor trends this mrng. For now hv backed
off on showers until closer to 12z this mrng acrs the far wrn
zones with mainly fog and patchy drizzle expected thru this
time. Very moist airmass overspreads entire FA this aftn with
front marching steadily closer to the state tda. Flow parallel
to the front results in vry slow mvmnt to steady rain until the
vry end of the pd. Thus, no mention of moderate-hvy rain thru
12z Wed.

Maxes wl rise some 12-18 degrees abv normal this aftn with vry
little diurnal range expected tonight with lows rmng in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rainy conditions will dominate for the middle of the week; rain
totals through Thursday of 1 to 3 inches expected, with up to
3.50 inches Downeast.

A very slow moving front, extending north-south through deep
southerly flow, will bring widespread rain to the region. This south
flow will usher in a mild and wet airmass with PWATs of 1.5-2
inches. The rain could be heavy at times as lift along the front;
these will also serve to slow the front`s forward progress. The
timing of these systems and exact frontal placement is hard to pin
down as the forecast guidance differs from model to model and run to
run. That being said, it does look like the front will make a true
push eastward late Thursday as a upper trough moves into NY and
western NE. Given the uncertainty, though, have stayed close to a
model blend for QPF. This gives widespread rain totals of 1.5 to 3.5
inches with the highest amounts Downeast. Given how dry we have been
and the fact that these amounts will fall over 36-48 hours, don`t
anticipate any widespread flooding concerns, outside of some ponding
on roadways and the like. However, WPC does include Downeast areas
in a Slight Risk in their current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook,
so later shifts will need to keep an eye on trends. Note that the
latest NAM shows some decent elevated instability out ahead and
along the front, but the GFS is not nearly so generous. While a
rumble of thunder or two can`t be ruled out, forecaster confidence
is not enough to include thunder in the forecast at this time. The
entire state is included in General Thunder in SPC`s Day 2
Convective Outlook.

The other concern will be gusty winds as a strong southerly jet will
move out ahead of the front. It`s difficult to say exactly how much
of this will be able to mix to the ground given the extensive cloud
cover, but gusts of 25-35 mph look possible, particularly along the
coast. This will need to be monitored closely, especially if any
convection is able to develop.

Finally, Wednesday`s temperatures will be quite mild as most spots
are expected to get into the mid 60s. This trend will continue
Wednesday night with lows only in the 50s. Thursday`s temperatures
are a bit uncertain as it will depend on when the front crosses the
area, but at this time expect it`ll be a few degrees cooler on
Thursday. Western areas could be as much as 10 degrees cooler
assuming the front makes it that far.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front finally makes its away across our area Thursday
night, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. Rain will quickly
come to an end Thursday night with perhaps just a few showers
lingering across the north Friday morning. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected through much of the weekend with high
pressure building across the region. The next chance of rain
arrives late Sunday into Monday as another frontal system
approaches from the west. Temperatures will be seasonable
through the weekend, with a gradual warmup early next week ahead
of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FVE, CAR and PQI expected to be VFR through around
10z this morning with high cirrus gradually thickening.
Conditions decrease to IFR this morning, possibly early
afternoon at FVE, before improving to MVFR. Drizzle expected
around 00z this evening.

IFR and LIFR wl affect HUL, BGR and BHB this morning.
Improvement to MVFR at BHB and BGR around 13z while HUL will
hold onto IFR until around 18z this afternoon. IFR will set in
once again at southern terminals after 00z in drizzle.

SHORT TERM: Rain, fog, and low ceilings will make for poor conditions
Wednesday through Thursday night. At the least, MVFR conditions
will prevail during the period, with IFR likely, and LIFR
possible, especially at KBGR and KBHB. Gusty south winds will
also be a concern, particularly Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will increase to above 25 kts this morning with
seas greater than 5ft this aftn in southerly swell. Winds will
approach gale force after midnight tonight, however uncertainty
warrants keeping the Gale Watch in effect at this time.

SHORT TERM: A Gale Watch remains in effect for Wednesday. South
winds will increase ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Winds
will be sustained around 20 kt, but gusts are less certain as
warmer air will be moving across the colder waters, prohibiting
mixing. Gusts of 30-35 kt are possible, with some perhaps
exceeding 35 kt, but this will depend on how much mixing can
occur. Will need at least a high-end Small Craft Advisory,
likely into Thursday morning. Given the uncertainty though, have
left the Gale Watch in place. Seas will build to 9-12 feet in
onshore flow. The front will cross the waters Thursday into
Thursday night, turning the flow offshore and lessening winds
and waves below Small Craft levels.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...Farrar/Hastings
Marine...Farrar/Hastings



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