Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
FXUS61 KCAR 270531
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME
131 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Weak high pressure will nose into the region from Canada today. Low
pressure will move out of southern New England toward the area
late tonight with precipitation developing from south to north.
Snow will be possible over higher elevations with several inches
possible over mountain peaks. Precipitation moves out briefly
Friday night and Saturday before another system moves through late
Saturday bringing another chance for precipitation. High pressure
then builds over the region for Monday and into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Radar still indicating a few weak showers that just do not seem to
want to go away...but the trend has been for them to weaken.
Expect them to die off completely by sunrise.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure pushing in from the north will bring an end to
any shower activity and diminish cloud cover a bit. The respite
will be short lived though as clouds from approaching system begin
to work their way into the forecast area by late afternoon.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long term period begins with surface low pressure centered over
lake Ontario and associated precipitation shield extending
eastward over New Hampshire and into extreme southern Maine. By
06z Friday we start to see a secondary low developing over
southern New England near Rhode Island and a surface trough
linking that low with the low over lake Ontario. Precipitation
shield at this time should extend northward through the Capitol
district of Maine. By 12z Friday morning we should see an energy
transfer from the Great Lakes low to the southern New England low
as it deepens and moves into the Gulf of Maine. Precipitation by
this time will likely extend well into the forecast area. 18z
Friday has the low wrapped up pretty tightly with a strong
pressure gradient in place along the Downeast coast and
precipitation falling in the same area. By 00z Saturday the system
begins to weaken and pull off into the Canadian maritimes.
The models are producing some rather different solutions with this
system...especially as it pertains to precipitation amounts and
type. The NAM brings the precipitation further north and is trying
to produce upwards of a foot of snow near Millinocket. The GFS
keeps the bulk of the precipitation further south over warmer
temperatures and mainly in the form of rain. It is looking more
and more likely that extreme northern portions of Maine may not
see much in the way of precipitation at all. The best chance for
accumulating snow remains over northern Somerset and Piscataquis
Once the system clears the area another system will move through
Saturday night. The models are quite a bit weaker with this system
than the 12z runs were showing...but it still looks like northern
Maine could see some shower activity.
High pressure builds over the region for Sunday and Monday before
another system approaches late Tuesday.
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect some MVFR/IFR cigs early this morning improving
to VFR by mid morning. Conditions will deteriorate quickly late
tonight and into Friday morning with IFR/LIFR conditions becoming
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions improve late Friday night and into
Saturday but will likely return as another system approaches
Saturday night and into Sunday.
NEAR TERM: No flags expected.
SHORT TERM: Will continue Gale Watch for the waters late tonight
and Friday as winds increase as low pressure moves across the
Gulf of Maine.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for