Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 310214
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1014 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep it warmer than normal and mainly dry
into Wednesday. A cold front will move across the commonwealth
late Wednesday and early Thursday, followed by a refreshingly
cooler airmass with low humidity Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Fair and seasonable weather tonight, as high pressure ridge
remains over the state. WAA aloft ahead of approaching shortwave
is already spreading cirrus into northwest Pa at 02Z and models
indicate the northern counties will experience an increase in high
clouds overnight, while mclear skies indicated by mdls in the
south. The cloud cover and a light sw breeze should preclude much
fog formation tonight over the northern counties. However, some
patchy fog does appear possible arnd dawn across the southern
counties.

Lows will range from the upper 50s over the Alleghenies to lower
60s across the Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Shortwave and assoc sfc cold front moving in from the Grt Lks will
be the focus for showers Wednesday, mainly across the northwest
mountains during the afternoon. Mdl rh fields indicate there will
be a good deal of mid and high level cloudiness across northern
and western Pa, limiting instability and assoc chance of thunder.
However, msunny skies across the southern valleys should push
temps into the upper 80s and result in enough instability to
support the chance of a few late day tstorms across the southern
counties. Latest SREF/GEFS indicating some marginal CAPES across
the south central mtns during the aftn and almost no CAPE elsewhere.

Cloud cover may hold temps to the mid 70s across the northwest
mtns, while 90F is possible in the valleys along the Mason Dixon
line based on progged 850 temps nr 18C.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from a
persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to a
weak upper-level trough by mid to late week. As a result, above-
normal temperatures through the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe will
transition to near or a little below normal by the end of the period.

Medium range guidance agrees with a second-stronger cold front
pushing SE across the area late Wednesday through Wed night, with a
renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms. Have upped PoPs to
high-end chance with afternoon fcst package.

This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next week
and into Saturday. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s Thursday
into the weekend over the northern and western higher terrain, with
low to mid 80s elsewhere as an upper trough amplifies from central
Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont. Temps begin to creep up again
late weekend into early next week.

Interesting developments with potential eventual track of TD9
after it slips across FL into the Atlantic. Wed night`s
front/trough will have pushed into the Carolinas by then, guiding
TD9 off the Carolina coast on a NE trajectory. But 12z model
guidance (both GFS and ECMWF) hint at a potential bit of a
temporary jog back toward the New England coast Sunday or Monday.
For now, potential impacts to central PA are very low.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR will continue overnight before patchy fog once
again develops toward daybreak Wednesday. After the early fog,
Wednesday will see VFR conditions return for most of the day
before scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms bring
localized restrictions.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...La Corte/Gartner



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