Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 250341
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1041 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE SAME PATH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FZDZ TURNING TO PLAIN SNOW IN THE NW AS EXPECTED. HAVE CANX SOME
OF THE ADVY...AND ANTICIPATE THAT THE REST OF THE ADVY WILL DIE A
NATURAL DEATH AT 06Z. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W SHOULD ONLY
AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO OVERNIGHT. SOME SHSN MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE LAURELS - AHEAD OF THE LARGER AREA OF SNOW
WHICH WILL COME IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT
DROP MUCH THRU THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT IS THE LAURELS AND SC MOUNTAINS
MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATING
THROUGH BEHIND DEPARTING STORM NOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS...BUT ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOW BEING PRODUCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
AIRFIELDS...WITH KBFD REPORTING INTERMITTENT -FZRA. THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z TOMORROW...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO
BEFORE THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR TO IFR IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...VFR
ELSEWHERE.
SUN NITE...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE EAST.
WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.
THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-024-033-037-041-042.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JUNG


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