Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 281033
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
333 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK GRADIENTS. LATEST WYDOT AND METAR
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN SPEEDS THIS
MORNING...SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS IS BEHIND
US NOW. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE
THOUGH...AS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OUT THERE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR CHEYENNE HERE THIS
MORNING...WITH 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MBS AT
1 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST CYS VWP SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIND PRONE AREAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS.
BORDEAUX GUSTING TO NEAR 40MPH...A LITTLE LESS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE WITH LOW 30S. BEST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE MID 40S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED. LATEST WRKHGT SHOWING GRADIENT PEAKING OUT IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND WARNINGS GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OUT NEAR LARAMIE THIS
MORNING...IN FACT...LARAMIE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM WITH UPPER 30S AT RAWLINS...LOW TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO EASE AFTER 12Z...DOWN FROM 55KTS TO 40KTS BY
18Z. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AT 850MBS.
LOOKING AT 4-8MB 6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE PANHANDLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z.

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +9C YESTERDAY...BACK DOWN TO -7 TO
-8C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO AROUND -2C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
OVER OUR COUNTIES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PRODUCING BRISK SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PROGGED GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...ALLOWING THE
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO EITHER MODIFY OR RETREAT OFF TO OUR EAST.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLE BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN MOIST FLOW
ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TODAY...ALONG WITH
CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL EASE FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTLOOK FOR LATER THIS WEEK SHOWS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC


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