Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 290006
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
606 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

A BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE A WINTRY MIX
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SLICK
CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS. TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH TONIGHT TO
NEAR-FREEZING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PWAT VALUES ARE ON THE RISE WITH
0.25 INCHES AT INL THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO OVER A HALF INCH BY
TOMORROW MORNING PER LATEST GUIDANCE. WITH THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
COMES WARMER AIR ALOFT DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
850MB...CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM UP 15 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTING 850MB TEMPS OF +5
C OVER DLH BY SATURDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER NORTHERN
MN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TODAY...OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY HIGH WITH
NICE LARGE FLAKES FALLING HERE AT THE OFFICE MOST OF THE DAY...BUT
ACCUMULATING TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. SKIES REMAIN
OVERCAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW BREAKS IN NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA...BUT THESE WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AS THE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. WINDS LIGHT...OUT OF THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. TEMPS HAVE RISEN GRADUALLY TODAY IN
LINE WITH THE FORECAST...INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING AS SNOW MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTHERN MN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ELSEWHERE A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...MAYBE WITH
SOME SLEET MIXING IN...BUT THESE SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT WARM AIR WILL INTRUDE AT LOW LEVELS AROUND 800 MB FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN...INCLUDING MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COLD AIR BELOW THIS WARM LAYER ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REFREEZE
ANY PRECIP THAT MELTS THUS CAUSING SLEET. THIS WILL VARY ACROSS THE
REGION AND ALL WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT BASED
ON ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AT TIMES
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TOO. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION /THRU
SAT AFTERNOON/ OF SNOW/SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE LIGHT...UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
OF ICE ACCUMULATION. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL DRIVE THE
TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE UPWARD DIRECTION...WARMING SLOWLY
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING...WITH SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

SATURDAY...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH....WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AT MOST LOCATIONS
BY NOON EXCEPT FOR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA WITH PRECIP WILL
REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EVENT AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DECREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE
DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...AND WINDS WILL CHANGE FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY...REMAINING LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THROUGH
MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IRON RANGE
AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MID LEVEL AND SFC TROF MOVE THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST
OMEGA IS FOUND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ARRIVES AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. HAVE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AS A RESULT. A NW FLOW OVER
LS WILL BEGIN THE CHANCE OF LES AS WELL. BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...DRIER AIR IS SHOWN TO BE OVERCOMING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WORKING IN SHUTTING DOWN THE LES OVER DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD. KEPT
SOME POPS IN CASE THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK WITH THE DRY AIR. ON
SUNDAY...STRONG CAA AND NW FLOW OVER THE FA INDICATES THAT MAX TEMPS
WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE 12Z. THE
UPPER/SFC TROFS DEPART ON SUNDAY. HAVE SOME POPS OVER THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...LES SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN FROM W TO E AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES. THE SFC TROF OVER SOUTHERN LS BACKTRACKS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BRINGING SOME MOISTURE AND A NW FLOW FOR MORE LES
SHOWERS. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONTINUED
CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD APPARENT TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
WARMED A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
ATTM UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AND CONSISTENT AGREEMENT. BEFORE
THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
MORE LES OVER IRON COUNTY WI. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE WIND WILL
BE TURNING INTO A MORE WNW DIRECTION. THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE E
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WAA TO COMMENCE OVER THE FA. ON
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA WITH ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS MOISTURE
IS LIMITED. LINGERED SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN TIER OF THE FA AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND
LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAA RETURNS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

A SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF MAINLY
MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST...WITH
SOME VFR CONDITIONS FOR KBRD AND KHYR. THROUGH 09Z SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH SLEET OR SNOW WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS...WITH IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS. PRECIPITATION TO BECOME LESS PREVALENT AFTER 09Z
UNTIL ABOUT 15Z WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING MORE
MVFR CIGS AND -SN TO KINL AND KHIB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  33   8  12 /  30  10  10  10
INL  11  25  -1   5 /  50  70  20  10
BRD  17  36   6  10 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  17  37  14  16 /  20  10  10  10
ASX  17  38  15  18 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE







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