Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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912
FXUS63 KDLH 010833
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
333 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016

Some dense fog was located from Hinckley north along I35 to Duluth
and up the north shore to Two Harbors. Issued a dense fog
advisory as a result until 8am.

Vertically stacked system was located in northwest Minnesota at 08Z.
The wind was beginning to turn to the southwest and become gusty in
the Brainerd Lakes region. Farther east, from St. Louis to Pine
county and into the Arrowhead, areas of fog were found with some
locally dense near the Twin Ports. The light rain was ending in
northwest Wisconsin, with a few showers lingering over north central
Wisconsin.

This stacked system will slowly drift into Ontario, just north of
International Falls by 00Z/7pm. Will see another round of showers
overspreading much of northeast Minnesota through the day. Northwest
Wisconsin will be mainly dry. This is supported by ensemble WRFs,
ECMWF, and GEM. GFS and NAM are trying to generate showers in the
afternoon over northwest Wisconsin. Will lean toward the consensus
mainly dry forecast over northwest Wisconsin. Thermodynamic profiles
suggest no thunder and have none.

The aforementioned system slowly moves northeastward into northwest
Ontario. This leaves the forecast area in a northwest flow tonight.
A few more pieces of embedded short wave energy will cross over the
northern third of the forecast area with additional areas of light
rain. Amounts will be light. There will be just enough wind around
to keep fog from forming tonight.

The vertically stacked system moves far enough away on Thursday to
loosen its grip on the region. The upper flow begins a transition to
a quasi zonal flow. By afternoon, a shortwave arrives over the
forecast area. There will be a small opportunity for some showers in
the morning over the Arrowhead between these features. In the
afternoon, maintained the dry forecast as surface ridging is in
charge.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016

High pressure will move through the Northland Thursday night,
providing a relatively clear and cool night. However, an open wave
moving through south central Canada and the northern Plains will
deepen to become a stacked a low over the western Lake Superior
region by late Friday. The low will bring a surge of moisture and
rain, and precipitable water values will increase to around 1.5
inches.  Cool northeast flow from Lake Superior will help develop a
stationary front across the southeast forecast area, limiting any
thunder to mainly the southern forecast area in the warm sector. If
the conditions are right, there could be some stronger storms
capable of hail and heavy rain. The GFS is suggesting there could be
up to around 2000 J/kg of mucape with 40 knots of 0-6km wind shear,
but the nam12 has much less cape.

The low will continue lifting through the region Friday night and
Saturday. Cooler air will pour out of Canada. Rain could linger well
through Saturday, especially over the eastern forecast area, but the
cooler air will limit the thunder threat.

Sunday will likely be a little warmer, but with plenty of
scattered/broken cumulus in the cool northwest flow pattern.
Scattered showers and isolated storms will probably develop in the
afternoon and evening when a shortwave drops through the Northland.
Monday will be a similar story, but mainly over the eastern forecast
area. Drier air will likely provide clearer skies across the west.

The warmest day of the long term will likely occur Tuesday. High
pressure will likely move into the Northland, providing sunny skies
and light wind speeds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016

An upper level low over northeast North Dakota will move east
northeast across northern Minnesota into northwest Ontario tonight
into Wednesday. Showers will remain possible across the Northland,
mainly over far eastern and far western areas. The showers will
increase on Wednesday most areas as the low moves further east.
Conditions will range from LIFR to MVFR, with the lowest ceilings
and visibilities occurring at KDLH. The wind will gradually shift
to south to southwest on Wednesday which will help raise ceilings
and visibilities to MVFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  46  63  46 /  40  10  10   0
INL  61  47  62  42 /  80  40  10   0
BRD  63  46  70  50 /  40  10   0  10
HYR  68  47  67  46 /  20  10  10   0
ASX  69  48  65  44 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ020-037-
     038.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Melde/Grochocinski



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