Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 252353
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
653 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE DRY AIR AND FULL SUNSHINE WERE
PROVIDING RATHER WARM AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH
EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT
THE SAME TIME...LIGHT NW WINDS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS HAVE BROUGHT IN DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S NW TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WITH A NW FLOW OVERHEAD. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE...WARM AIR WAS BUILDING AT 850 MB...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS. THIS WAS LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NOW STALLED FRONT STRETCHED WEST TO
EAST ACROSS KS AND MO.  FURTHER WEST...A STRONG VORTEX WAS EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE...AMPLIFY INTO A LONGER WAVE
TROUGH...AND SEND A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM ISSUE AS THE PLAINS HIGH
MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...THE LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER...BENIGN NW FLOW ALOFT...
AND DRY PLAINS AIRMASS IN PLACE POINT TOWARD A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNRISE AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA. BEING LATE
OCTOBER...THIS WOULD NORMALLY BE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
LACKING...THIS SHOULD NOT BE THE CASE TONIGHT. TECHNIQUES USING THE
SEASONABLY MILD 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND TRAJECTORIES FROM UPSTREAM
LOWS FROM THIS MORNING IN THE PLAINS...SUPPORT LOWS RANGING FROM AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

SUNDAY...THE DEVELOPING PLAINS SYSTEM PULLS THE SURFACE FRONT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THIS TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY...RESULTING IN SE SURFACE WINDS. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE TRENDS WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED BY SOME MODELS
TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND PUSH NORTHWARD POSSIBLY INTO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY IN A DISSIPATING FASHION. BASED ON
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS TODAY AND POOR VERIFICATION IN ESPECIALLY THE
WRF CLOUD FIELDS TODAY...WILL DOWNPLAY THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
SPREADING INTO THE FAR SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. AM
MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE AREA WILL SEE THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS BY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWS THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY FILTERED
SUNSHINE SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE MID
70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. IF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL CLOUD
TRENDS OF THE ECMWF...AND ESPECIALLY THE WRF...WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...READINGS WOULD BE HELD IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

RETURN FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS.
THE BETTER FORCING IS ACROSS WISCONSIN BUT THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF
THE AREA MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ONE CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ERRANT THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST.

MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND
WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF ENOUGH SUN OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY EVENING WITH RAIN
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. MOISTURE
IS QUITE LIMITED BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH
E/SE WINDS INCREASING TO 8-14 KTS WITH SOME LOCAL HIGHER GUSTS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI IN STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS DURING AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS
FOR BAND OF STRATUS WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS LIFTING INTO
SOUTHEAST IA VCNTY OF KBRL BY MID TO LATE PM AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05






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