Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 262253

National Weather Service Eureka CA
353 PM PDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry conditions for the day, as a cold frontal
rain band remains just offshore. This weather front will make
landfall this evening, and rain will spread inland overnight into
Thursday morning. Rain will be heavy at times during the day on
Thursday. The weather front will push to the southeast, giving
Humboldt and Trinity counties a dry break on Friday. Rain showers
will return on Saturday. More substantial rain will return on
Sunday. After that, active weather pattern continues through early
next week.


.DISCUSSION...The wet weather pattern will continue for the forecast period. We
have a highly amplified flow pattern set up right now. We have an
omega block set up over the high latitude region. At the same time,
we have a high over low block (Rex block) set up over the West
Coast. Thus, we are still stuck in a blocking situation, and the
flow may still be stuck for a few more days.

During the day today, we have a front hanging just off the coast of
NW California. This weather front has made little to no eastward
progress during the day. The radar has been seeing precipitation
just hanging off the coast, while some precipitation made it to
Crescent City area. This weather front is expected to slowly move
eastward overnight tonight. Precipitation should spread into the
coastal areas this evening, then inland overnight. Precipitation
will become heavy at times during the day on Thursday. Precipitation
should taper off by Thursday night. There may even be a dry break
for Humboldt and Del Norte counties from Thursday night through
Friday daytime. Rain showers will return to NW California on
Saturday. Looks like there is a pretty substantial rain maker for
Sunday. After that, the system remains fairly active.

With this weather pattern, confidence is much below average in terms
of the timing and intensity of individual systems. Confidence is
above average that the wet pattern will continue for the next 7
days. Uses a GFS/ECMWF in refreshing the forecast package today.


.AVIATION...VFR to MVR conditions have been generally prevailing at
the TAF sites this afternoon as the frontal boundary has primarily
been sitting offshore. These conditions will prevail through the
early evening hours before the front slides to coast. Current
thinking is that KCEC and KACV will eventually fall to IFR
conditions after 6Z with KCEC dropping first. Rain will eventually
make it down towards KUKI, however, that should hold off until 12Z.
Conditions there should primarily hover around MVFR status but IFR
is not out of the question. /KAR


.MARINE...The Gale Warning expired at 3 AM and was replaced with a
Small Craft Advisory. The advisory is set to end at 9 PM this
evening as S winds and seas continue to subside. Generally light S
flow will persist through Thursday evening. Winds will briefly
become light and variable Thursday night and Friday before picking
back up out of the S Friday night and into the weekend. Conditions
may flirt with small craft criteria over the weekend, but there is
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the depth of another surface
low over the E Pacific. During this time period, leaned toward the
DGEX solution, which takes the middle ground between the stronger
operational GFS and the weaker ECMWF. This was also a similar
solution to the previous package. Per coordination with MFR,
adjusted W-NW swell downward during this time period to account for
the possibility of a weaker solution. /SEC


NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450-455-



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