Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
335 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Dense fog and precip chances the main concerns. Water vapor
imagery indicates a couple upper circulations in the vicinity of
the region, propagating north with an area of deformation lifting
through the FA. Radar imagery does show some returns within this
area of deformation, falling as liquid (dry mid-upper layers with
saturated low level layer above freezing) within SFC temps just
above freezing. Current road temperatures from DOT sites are 32F
to 34F. Current road reports continue to indicate mostly wet
surfaces. Dense fog continues along and east of the valley with
surface winds calm. Visibilities are improving west of the valley
where winds are increasing from the west as the weak surface
trough lifts north into Canada. This trend should continue through
the day, and expect visibilities to improve from west to east.
Will keep dense fog advisory in effect until noon...and re-
evaluate later this morning (may need to be extended for portions
of Minnesota). Will also monitor for icy roads, but at this time
any slick spots should remain isolated).

Cloudy into tonight...with -sn possible NW Minnesota. Not sure
about fog, but should be at least some mixing to prevent dense
fog (maybe?).

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Monday-Tuesday...Will be watching a system ejecting from the
Rockies. 00z guidance (operational models and ensemble solutions)
indicate the best potential for heaviest QPF will be well south of
the region. The far southern FA (south of I-94) could receive an
inch or two of snow Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Thursday...The main upper low will move by to the
south, but several weak reinforcing shortwaves will be rotating
through during the period. This will bring some light snow at times,
but all models keep QPF very light and accumulations at this point
look minimal. The shortwaves will also help shift surface winds to a
more northwesterly direction and bring some cold air advection.
Temps for the mid-week will be colder and well below the freezing
mark, but still above seasonal averages.

Friday and Saturday...The models are all in good agreement on north
to northwesterly flow aloft, but have differences in shortwaves
coming down for Saturday and bringing a reinforcing shot of cold
air. Before that on Friday there is good agreement on surface winds
becoming more westerly with some slight warm air advection. By
Saturday the ECMWF brings down a weak shortwave and more cold air,
while GFS stays a bit more mild. The majority of ensemble members
lean towards the warmer GFS so will keep the blended solution which
continues temps above normal for Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

IFR cigs now combined with lowering vsbys at all sites other than
DVL. Look for cigs in the 400 to 800 ft range with vsbys
eventually dropping to 1/4SM. Vsbys will improve from west to east
starting at FAR/GFK around 15Z, but IFR cigs will likely linger
through the day.


ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ007-008-016-

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ001>009-013>017-



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