Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 AM MST Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Hot conditions will persist through the weekend.
Temperatures will begin to slowly trend downward into next week.
The chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase
again over the weekend and into next week mainly for Apache and
southern Navajo counties. Gusty winds will likely develop Tuesday
and Wednesday.


.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains the dominant weather feature
over the desert southwest for the foreseeable future. This will
lead to continued above normal temperatures across northern
Arizona. The Excessive Heat Warning for the lowest elevations of
northern Arizona remains in effect through Sunday evening.
However, temperatures will begin to slowly trend cooler into next
week. While thunderstorm chances are low today, moisture will
begin to creep back into Apache and southern Navajo counties this
weekend and next week. This will reintroduce the chance for high-
based showers and thunderstorms across that area.

Latest model guidance suggests there is an increasing potential
for a period of gusty winds Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time,
it appears wind gusts could approach the advisory criteria of 40
mph and critical fire weather thresholds may be met.

There continues to be no indication of significant monsoon
moisture making it into the region next week, but this will
continued to be monitored over the coming days.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Primarily VFR conditions are
expected for the 24 hour forecast period. Smoke from area
wildfires may bring MVFR conditions to flight paths and airfields
through the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and generally dry conditions will continue
through Saturday. Max temperatures to remain around 10 degrees
above normal. Mid level moisture seeping into the White Mountains
area Saturday afternoon will bring a slight chance of high-based

Sunday through Tuesday...Despite a small cooling trend, above normal
temperatures will continue. Increasing mid-level moisture will bring
a modest increase in high-based shower and thunderstorm coverage to
the eastern and central zones. The best chance remains over the
White Mountains. Gusty southwest winds may bring critical fire
weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 9
PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ005-006-037.




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