Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 181016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
315 AM MST Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue across northern Arizona
through today and much of Saturday. There will be a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the White Mountains on Saturday afternoon. Higher
chances of showers and thunderstorms then move back north and west
and affect much of the area by Sunday and into next week.


.DISCUSSION...Dry westerly flow aloft will gradually give way to
deep southerly flow over the weekend. This is due to a stationary
low pressure system off the coast of southern CA and high pressure
over Texas and New Mexico. The gradient between these two systems
will increase over the weekend and into next week, allowing the pool
of "monsoonal" moisture to our south to move back north.

This is a pattern that may favor MCS development and nocturnal
activity as temperatures in the mid-levels are cooler than normal
and shear/steering flow profiles favor redevelopment. This pattern
remains intact through much of next week, before the low opens up
and moves east, allowing drier air to establish itself over the
southwest once again.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions through the 24
hour TAF period with winds generally lighter than 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue again today. Expect
lower than usual humidity for this time of year, along with light
southwest winds and near normal temperatures. Limited moisture
returning Saturday may bring a slight chance of thunderstorms near
the White Mountains.

Sunday through Tuesday...Moisture is forecast to spread farther
north and west with daily afternoon thunderstorm chances developing
over northern Arizona each day.






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