Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270439
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
937 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT KICKED OFF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS HEADED INTO NEW MEXICO. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW.
UPDATES ON THE WAY.

THE 00Z GFS MODEL RUN IS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY IMPRESSIVE QPF
(LIQUID) AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE
STAY UP TO DATE AS THIS STORM DEVELOPS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PLACE IN THE TOP TEN FOR BOTH DAILY SNOWFALL AND STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /439 PM MST/...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS CAUSED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL MOGOLLON
RIM. THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE WEATHER GETS MORE INTERESTING AS AN
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL
USHER IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW IT TO DRAW GOOD PACIFIC
MOISTURE EASTWARD. STRONG WINDS INTERACTING WITH THE REGIONS
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW CAPABLE OF CAUSING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WHEN GUSTS
MAY EXCEED 40 MPH IN SOME PLACES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...1-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. THESE
AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5000-6000 FEET OVER THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU...6500-7500 FEET AROUND FLAGSTAFF...AND 7000-8000
FEET IN THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT
FORECASTS SHOW BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET. BELOW 7000 FEET...UNCERTAINTY GROWS CONSIDERABLY
AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN
SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLDER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER WITH
THIS THIRD SYSTEM AND ANOTHER SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

TRAVEL IN THE HIGH COUNTY WILL BE DANGEROUS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
ICY ROADWAYS AND VERY LOW VISIBILITY. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
GET YOUR WINTER TRAVEL KIT REPLENISHED...AND MAKE SURE THE
CAR/TRUCK HAS A FULL TANK OF GAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
.FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN/-SHRA NORTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UTAH BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM KFLG NORTHWARD BY 01Z-03Z
SATURDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN SNOW. DAYTIME SFC WINDS SW15-25KTS MOST
AREAS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/RR
AVIATION.......BEP

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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