Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221604

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
904 AM MST Sat Oct 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...After another warm day today, expect an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. Warm
and dry conditions return by mid-week, with chances for showers
arriving again by next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...For today, A strong ridge in place across northern
Arizona will lead to dry weather, clear skies and above normal
temperatures. Winds will be a little stronger than yesterday as
low level gradients begin to tighten ahead of an approaching
trough. In general, expect southwest winds with gusts into the 20
to 30 mph range for most areas.

In terms of forecast updates, the current forecast appears to be
on track and no major adjustments are anticipated at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION /355 AM MST/...A series of troughs will impact
the large ridge over the southern United States during the coming
week. After a warm day today, low pressure off the west coast will
bring increasing southwest flow and higher pw values to the area
Sunday and Monday. This will bring convective shower activity to
the area Sunday through Tuesday, likely peaking late Monday and
Monday night as a weak s/wv moves through the southwest.

The ridge rebounds mid-week, but another trough will bring the
potential for showers back to the region by the end of the week
and into next weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z forecast...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hrs. S to SW winds becoming 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts
Saturday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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