Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 290503

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1003 PM MST SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture and thunderstorms will decrease on
Monday...and will mostly be in Apache County. Monsoon moisture
will start to slowly return to northern Arizona on Tuesday and
Wednesday. A surge of moisture is possible by Thursday with
thunderstorm chances increasing through the end of the week.


No significant changes to the forecast this afternoon as the
upper level low continues to move away from the area to the east.
Have decreased chances of precipitation for the remainder of the
evening hours as the bulk of shower activity has ended.&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /340 PM MST/...The low pressure area is centered
right over the Four Corners this afternoon and is slowly moving
east. Storms over far eastern Coconino County and Navajo County
are moving from the north to south. Storms will continue this
afternoon and into the evening hours.

The low will continue to slowly move east into New Mexico Monday
as high pressure builds into the southwestern US through Tuesday.
Some moisture will remain over the White Mountains and far eastern
Apache County. Limited moisture will move back over Arizona on
Tuesday. Then more moisture will move back over the state on
Wednesday and Thursday. This monsoon pattern should continue
through the end of the week, with dry southwesterly flow forecast
to develop by Sunday, Sept. 4.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail
across the majority of northern Arizona over the next 24 hours.
Showers and storms will be confined to the White Mountains and
Chuska Mountains late Monday morning and afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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