Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 202257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
357 PM MST Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect strong southwesterly winds into this evening as
a cold front starts to move across the state. High temperatures
will be 10-15 degrees lower on Saturday. Above average temperatures
will return again by Monday and continue through much of next


.DISCUSSION...Breezy to windy conditions continue across northern
Arizona this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. The front will move into western Arizona this evening,
through a Black Canyon City-Flagstaff-Page line around midnight,
and through Apache County by daylight Saturday. Windy conditions
will continue until just after day...the decrease. A wind
advisory is in effect until 700 MST for areas along the Mogollon
Rim/White Mountains and northward.

Winds behind the front and shift northerly late tonight into
Saturday. The northerly winds will usher in a cooler airmass with
temperatures falling 10-15 degrees Saturday. This cool down will
be short-lived however.

The remainder of the forecast is quite benign across the region
with strong high pressure building over the southwest US. This
will bring a return to above normal temperatures, lighter winds,
and no chance of precipitation through much of next week.

Another strong dry cold front may move across northern Arizona
late next week with windy conditions a and another sharp drop in
temperatures. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hrs. Some cumulus development possible over higher
terrain with bases in the 4-6kft agl range through 05Z -
otherwise mostly clear. Southwest wind 15-30 kt with gusts 30-40 kt
through around 01Z, then slowly decreasing and eventually shifting
to N-NE Saturday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will decrease overnight. Cooler and drier
conditions will arrive Saturday, with winds shifting to north -
northwest and decreasing. Warmer but continued dry Sunday with
northeast winds in most areas.

Monday through Wednesday...Building high pressure will lead to well
above normal temperatures and low RH values. Winds are expected to
be from the north to northeast through Tuesday, then likely
shifting to the west or southwest Wednesday.


evening FOR AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.




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