Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 010503
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1003 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AND A STEADY
DECREASE NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING IN A SWATH FROM
THE GRAND CANYON EASTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA THIS EVENING POSSIBLY ENHANCING OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES
NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /333 PM MST/...IT WAS AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WERE NOT MOVING
VERY FAST SO THERE WAS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED.

FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH WITH CHANCES OF STORMS INCREASING.

&&

.AVIATION...CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE
LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
AROUND 17Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MAS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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