Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 181620

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
920 AM MST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a lingering chance of rain and snow showers
over the southern White Mountains today, with clear skies
elsewhere. Otherwise, dry and warmer weather is expected today
and Tuesday. Winds will increase substantially on Wednesday,
ahead of a strong cold front due on Thursday.


.UPDATE...Increased precipitation chances and sky cover to
include the light showers showing up on radar over southern Apache
and Navajo counties and eastern Gila county. Expect these light
showers to continue into the afternoon as the surface low weakens
and moves east by this evening. Otherwise, the current forecast
remains on track for dry and warmer weather for today and Tuesday.


.PREV DISCUSSION /520 AM MST/...An upper low near Tucson this
morning will slowly exit Arizona to the east by this evening. The
influence of this low is fading as it weakens, with most shower
activity confined to the far southeastern corner of the state.
Just enough moisture in the northern sector of the low may work
into the southern White Mtns and a chance of rain/snow showers
will continue in this area for about 12 hours.

In the wake of the low, s/wv ridging will develop Tuesday, leading
to dry and warming conditions. A stronger trough will move through
the eastern Great Basin Wednesday and Thursday. Expect strong
winds on Wednesday, with sharply colder temperatures and a chance
of flurries on Thursday. Generally dry and cold northwest flow
then settles in the for the holiday weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Look for VFR conditions over most
of northern Arizona and light winds for the next 24 hours. The
exception, local MVFR/IFR conditions near rain and snow showers in
the vicinity of the White Mountains and southeast Mogollon Rim.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...For today, expect near normal temperatures and
isolated rain and snow showers in the vicinity of the White
Mountains. Winds will be light and variable through Tuesday with
temperatures rising to about 5 degrees above normal.

Wednesday through Friday...Expect above normal temperatures and
gusty southwest winds on Wednesday. On Thursday, A cold front will
bring chances for showers mainly north of Interstate 40 and well
below normal temperatures. Breezy northwest winds setup behind the
front. Cool and dry conditions return Friday.






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