Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 211124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
524 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 216 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

After a warm day on Monday, the weather changes to the cold side
today behind a cold front. This boundary was entering northern
Nebraska at 08Z and 06Z pressure rises behind the front averaged 3
to 5 mb across the Dakotas. The daytime hours will be marked by
strong north winds with gusts over 30 mph and cold air advection,
with temperatures running 20 to 30 degrees colder than yesterday.
The colder temperatures combined with the gusty winds will produce
wind chills in the teens and 20s across our northern zones through
the morning into early afternoon.

Have been monitoring radar trends for light precipitation with
the frontal passage this morning. Light snow has been reported
across portions of South Dakota during the predawn hours and while
models have backed off on the light precipitation for our area,
cannot rule out a sprinkle or flurry through mid morning based on
upstream observations and radar returns.

Tonight, cold is the best way to describe the weather. A 1033 mb
surface high pressure system settles across eastern Nebraska and
Kansas overnight. Winds drop off, allowing temperatures to plummet
into the teens for lows in the cold airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

After a chill morning Wednesday, the cold air will dislodge in
time for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday. Upper ridging and warm
air will expand/advect across our region through the middle and
latter part of the week. Temperatures recover nicely, and will be
rather warm for November on Thanksgiving and Black Friday with
highs in the 60s and 70s. For perspective on how warm these
temperatures are, they are forecast close to or within five
degrees of record highs.

Record high temperatures November 23rd:
Grand Island:  66 degrees set in 2011, 2005
Hastings:      70 degrees set in 1923

Record high temperature for November 24th:
Grand Island:  72 degrees set in 1990
Hastings:      72 degrees set in 1942

Look for readings to cool back down over the weekend behind a
the next cold front, but temps will still be mild with highs
averaging in the 50s. The weather remains dry through the weekend
into the first part of next week, remaining favorable for holiday
weekend activities and travelers. Subtle upper ridging migrates
east onto the plains for the first part of next week bringing a
slight warming trend Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday)
Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Gusty winds are forecast for today from a recent cold frontal
passage. The winds will be gusty out of the NW for most of the day
and will taper down this evening and will become light out of the
SW. A few isolated -RA/-SN showers around the area, low
confidence of them hitting one of the TAF sites, but will mention
as a VCSH this morning in case one pops up. No impacts expect
with these weak showers.




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