Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 141806
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1206 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

UPDATED THE FORECAST TODAY TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. CONSMOS DID THE BEST JOB WITH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WAS THE LAST WARMER THAN NORMAL DAY THAT WE HAD
HERE...AND REALLY SEE THIS MODEL DOING WELL FOR A SIMILAR DAY
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 49 ARE NOW FORECAST FOR THE TRI-CITIES...COOLER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARMER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT MOVING OVERHEAD. THE WESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE AND WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE THEY
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S EXPECTED.

TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT LOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY DRY...SO IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT
LOOKS TO BE LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES (IF COLD ENOUGH).
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

BIG STORY: MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. NEAR RECORD TEMPS LIKELY
THU.

ALOFT: THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH A RIDGE OVER
WRN N AMERICA AND A TROF IN THE E...WITH NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS.
SOME TEMPORARY PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK AS
THE E PAC TROF GET FORCED ONSHORE BY THU. THIS WILL SHOVE THE WRN
RIDGE E AND OVER THE PLAINS THU WITH THAT TROF STILL FCST TO ARRIVE
HERE FRI. THIS TROF MAY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BY NEXT SUN AND AS IT
PASSES OUR LONGITUDE THE WRN RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF.

AS FOR THE SHORTER WAVELENGTHS...A TROF WILL BE EXITING THE
REGION AT 12Z/MON. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL RACE SE AND PASS BY MON
NIGHT...JUST E OF THE FCST AREA. THEN HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
RISE...PEAKING 12Z/THU. THE PAC TROF ARRIVES FRI WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC NW GRADUALLY EVOLVING SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER WILL DIVE SE INTO THE DAKOTAS MON AND MISS TO THE
E INTO IA MON NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE AND THEN
STRENGTHENS AS IT SLIDES SE AND ENVELOPS THE ERN USA. A DIFFUSE WARM
FRONT WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TUE NIGHT...ADVANCING E INTO
ERN KS/NEB AND BECOMING STATIONARY WED-THU. CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER
WY LATE THU WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HERE THU NIGHT AS THIS LOW
EJECTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

MON: WE BARELY LOSE THE CLOUDS FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT ONE.

MON NIGHT: CHANCE OF SPRINKLES. POSSIBLY A BRIEF SHWR OR TWO N AND E
OF THE TRI-CITIES. BECOMING BREEZY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN CAA.

TUE: BREEZY BEFORE NOON. ANOTHER DAY OF CONSIDERABLE MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDINESS.

WED: P/CLOUDY. WE MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH YET.

THU: DOWNRIGHT WARM! BELIEVE NEAR RECORD TEMPS ARE LIKELY...WITH
TYING OR BREAKING RECORDS POSSIBLE. BELIEVE THERE`S STILL ROOM FOR
UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN FCST TEMPS. IE...WE MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
USED 12Z/13 EKD MOS TO RAISE HIGHS 3-6F ABOVE FCST INITIALIZATION.

850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

EC ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS 15-19C OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. WITH FULL SUN
THAT WOULD SUPPORT 72-80F...WITH 73-75F IN THE TRI-CITIES.

RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MEANS CLOUDS SHOULDN`T BE A SIGNIFICANT
HINDRANCE.

RECORDS:

GRI - 71 IN 1948
HSI - 74 IN 1930

THU NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS A PAC FRONT NOT CANADIAN.
SO TEMPS WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FRI.

THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENT DYNAMICS BUT LACK OF AMPLITUDE MEANS FAST
MOVEMENT AND LITTLE TIME TO ENTRAIN MOISTURE. WE MIGHT NEED TO
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHWRS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRI: CAA. IT`S LOOKING WINDY AT LEAST IN THE MORNING. NOT AS WARM AS
THU BUT STILL VERY MILD.

SAT: MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT A QUICK-MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND COULD GIVE US SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

SIGNIFICANT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THU WILL RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLE
DROP IN RH LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY S OF HWY
6 AND W OF HWY 281. AT THIS TIME...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH.

FRI TEMPS WON`T BE QUITE AS WARM...BUT NW DOWNSLOPE WILL RESULT IN
LOWER DWPTS...AND WINDS ARE HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

THE OVERRIDING FACTOR IS FUELS. WE`VE RECENTLY MELTED A LOT OF SNOW
FROM THE FEB 1-2 EVENT. FUELS SHOULD BE MOIST...SO IT`S DOUBTFUL WE
WILL BE ISSUING ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HALBLAUB



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