Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 281749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Most areas should be dry through this evening with continued below
normal high temperatures only in the lower to mid 80s.

An upper level ridge over the desert southwest is resulting in
northwesterly mid to upper level flow across the central plains. A
weak mid level shortwave tracking east out of Wyoming and western
Nebraska early this morning should weaken, but be situated over
our area by tonight. Therefore, will continue to call for a slight
chance of thunderstorms late tonight across western forecast zones
in association with this dieing short wave.

The HRRR including the 08Z 07/28th model run is overly ambitious
with trying to bring showers and thunderstorms too far east and
into our western forecast area this morning. Radar trends have not
been supportive and thus will continue to call for a dry forecast
throughout the day time hours, but with somewhat limited
confidence over our western most zones. Even if we do see some
localized showers this morning amounts would likely range form a
trace to only a few hundredths of an inch.

Instability today and tonight will be very limited and thus severe
weather is not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Biggest forecast concern will be intermittent chances of

Fairly strong influence of the upper ridge will be in place over the
weekend. However, our best chance of precipitation in the extended
might very well be on Saturday from leftover High Plains convection
from Friday night into Saturday morning and perhaps refiring
Saturday night into Sunday morning from leftover outflow boundaries,
assuming that any cap will break.

By Monday, the synoptic pattern will be stable as the high
retrogrades a bit farther west in a relatively anomalous pattern,
and troughing in the eastern United States. This scenario puts us
within north northwest flow. Long-range models show good agreement
and continuity with the overall longwave pattern, although any
chance for precip will depend on small scale shortwave troughs, so
precipitation prediction confidence is low.

This period looks like it should be largely dry, except for a
shortwave trough that slips through Wednesday afternoon/night. This
is far enough out that I cannot get too confident with timing, and
even though our ambient environment will be on the dry side, I could
not rule out other time periods completely for a little bit of
precip, for the fact that this pattern could be a bit unpredictable
with timing of disturbances. I also threw in a bit of patchy fog in
our southwest for late Monday night/Tuesday morning as the center of
a surface high could be close by and help suppress wind speed while
dewpoint depressions will probably be low. Support for severe
weather appears low.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

A few thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight...but remain
primarily west of the terminals. In case a few of these storms
manage to make it as far east as highway 281, opted to include a
VCTS for a few hours towards morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions
with varying amounts of mid/high level cloud cover and generally
light southeasterly or southerly winds are expected throughout the




LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Rossi is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.