Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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447
FXUS63 KGID 011051
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A CLOSED UPPER LOW AT 500 MB WAS LOCATED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/OPEN UP AND TRACK
EAST INTO IOWA TODAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO OUR RAIN CHANCES
BY LATER THIS MORNING. A SECOND WEAK OPEN SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK TO
OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND AT LEAST THE NAM THINKS THIS MIGHT BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...AND KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
WITH ANY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WE
LOSE THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

FROST CHANCES TONIGHT...WELL IT IS NOW THE MONTH OF MAY...BUT COOLER
DRY AIR WILL WORK IN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS TRY TO CLEAR OUT AND WE SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY HIGH REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS
THERE ARE PLENTY OF QUESTION MARKS ON HOW QUICKLY WE WILL CLEAR OUT
AND HOW MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL CLEAR OUT. THE BEST
CHANCE...BUT NOT A SURE DEAL...OF SEEING SOME CLEARING WILL BE
ACROSS THESE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD RADIATIVELY
COOL INTO THAT FROSTY 33-36 DEGREE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. FOR NOW
HAVE ADDED FROST TO THE FORECAST FOR WEST AND NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT
LACK CONFIDENCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE PRODUCT AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

BIG STORY: A FEW SHWRS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...OTHERWISE
DRY AND TURNING WARMER THRU FRI.

ALOFT: THE FLOW WILL BE SPLIT OVER N AMERICA MON MORNING WITH A
CLOSED HIGH OVER ALBERTA AND TROFS OVER THE E PAC AND OVER THE CNTRL
USA. TUE HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE DESERT SW...CONSOLIDATING THE
FLOW. A RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND FROM NM TO N OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE BY
WED WITH THE E PAC TROF APPROACHING THE W COAST AND THE CNTRL USA
TROF MOVING INTO THE E. EACH TROF WILL CONTAIN A CLOSED LOW. SO
MOVEMENT OF THE LONGWAVES WILL BE SLOW...BUT SOME MODEST PROGRESSION
WILL OCCUR WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE PLAINS BY FRI AND INTO THE
MS VALLEY SAT.

A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS MON NIGHT. MOST
MODELS HAVE FINALLY CLOSED IN ON A SOLUTION...ESSENTIALLY MEETING IN
THE MIDDLE WITH THE GFS SHORTENING THE WAVELENGTH AND FURTHER W AND
THE EC NOT SO CLOSED AND FURTHER E. THE 00Z NAM HAS AN EXTREME
SOLUTION PRVS RUNS OF THE EC HAD...TAKING A COMPACT LOW SW INTO WY.
WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS FCST. ONCE THIS TROF PASSES
TUE...NNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERHEAD UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES IN
FRI/SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AND WRN USA LOW...ESPECIALLY INTO SAT/SUN.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS MON AND THEN WEAKEN
AS IT SINKS INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUE. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FCST AREA WED MORNING. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THU AND THEN DROP INTO THE CNTRL
USA FRI. THIS HIGH WILL HEAD INTO THE GULF SAT WITH WAA AND LEE
CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING...AHEAD OF A PAC COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY
THRU THE WRN USA.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

MON: POSSIBLY A TOUCH OF FROST IN A FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST DAY OF SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS STILL A FEW DEGS
BELOW NORMAL.

INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF SHWRS AFTER 4 PM N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING IN. CLOUD COVER ALSO INCREASED.

MON NIGHT: INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MAINTAINED RISK OF SCT SHWRS.

TUE-FRI: DRY AND PLEASANT WITH A NICE WARMING TREND.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT: WE DO HAVE A SLGT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE FCST.
THIS IS COULD BE A BIT EARLY. AM SURPRISED TO SEE BOTH THE GFS/EC
RETURNING GULF MSTR NORTHWARD SO QUICKLY WITH THE DEEP TROF FCST TO
BE OVER THE ERN USA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RATHER
VARIABLE CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN BANDS
MIGRATING THROUGH THE AREA. ON THE LOW END WE SEE PERIODS OF LOW
END IFR CONDITIONS...BUT MAY ALSO POP UP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES. THIS BACK AND FORTH TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH INCREASINGLY IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WHILE
RAIN COVERAGE BEGINS TO DECREASE. AM ALSO LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF NOT A BIT EARLIER.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



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