Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 310000
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
600 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

TODAY SAW A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREAD OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CO AND SE UTAH. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REST ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE AND STRETCH
BACK TO THE NW OVER EXTREME NW CO INTO SW WY. MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WESTERN CO AND EXTREME NE UT HELD
DOWN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
STORMS WILL FIRE IN NORTHERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT WILL FOCUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP
DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND WEAK CONSIDERABLY OVER NORTHERN CO. DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO NORTH CO AND NE UT...WHILE SOME RETURN FLOW
FROM THE SE WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. HAVE
DECREASED AREAL COVERAGE FOR TOMORROW IN THE NORTH...AND INCREASED
IT OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

CONSISTENT WITH MID-SUMMER...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS STAGNANT.
LOW CENTERS WILL SPIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND HUDSON
BAY...WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL BE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DRIVERS.

FRIDAY...A DISTURBANCE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WORKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED
TO 0.5 INCH PRECIP WATER ACROSS THE NORTH INCREASING TO NEAR ONE
INCH IN THE SOUTH. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE ESE AT 15 KNOTS
WHICH ALSO LIMITS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT FOR
SATURDAY FOR A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL HOT TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY A MORE ROBUST DISTURBANCE WORKS NORTH FROM THE BAJA
BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY. NOCTURNAL STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE MOISTURE SURGES NORTH. THE GFS INCREASES PRECIP
WATER UP TO 1.5 INCHES INTO EASTERN UTAH OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME FORCING ON MONDAY LOOKS TO PRODUCE AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN DAY. SLOW CLOCKWISE STORM
MOTION (N TO E AT 5-10 KTS) WILL ALSO ADD TO THE FLOODING THREAT.
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME FORCING MAY EXTEND INTO TUESDAY UNTIL
DRIER AIR WORKS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

NORTH AREA...COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE AFTER 06Z.

SW COLORADO...SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSRA WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
OVER SW COLORADO AND IMPACT KDRO AND KPSO LATER TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR
CIGS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY.

12Z-18Z...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

AFTER 18Z...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH A FEW STORMS DRIFTING OVER THE VALLEYS. MOUNTAIN TAF SITES
HAVE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TS. THE CHANCE FOR TSRA FOR THE LOWER
WRN COLORADO TAF SITES IS 20 PERCENT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF


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