Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 311124
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
524 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THESE PERIODS PROVIDING STRONG
HEATING...SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS.

DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND A
DISTURBANCE OVER NW NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH
THE SE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON. LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SAN JUANS. THE 00Z
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO NUDGE THIS MOISTURE FURTHER
NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE GENERALLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POPS NORTH OF
THE SAN JUANS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL SHOW LITTLE
MOVEMENT TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR SOME POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SOUTH.

SCATTERED STORMS LINGER BEYOND SUNSET OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH ISOLATED STORMS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE SEEN FOR SATURDAY WITH NO GOOD FORCING UNDER
THE BROAD RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE SRN BAJA TIP
GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE ERN PACIFIC CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION. THIS DISTURBANCE RIDES THE TOP OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...IN THE PROCESS DRAWS UP MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES LESS
NUMEROUS OVER THE WRN PORTION AS DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THE DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. THIS DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON STORMS BECOMING LIMITED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.

THE NEXT MONSOONAL SURGE STREAMS THROUGH ARIZONA BEFORE REACHING
ERN UTAH AND WRN COLORADO. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR NEXT THURSDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CORRELATED WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND HUMIDITY. THE WARMEST DAY OCCURRING NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE
DRIEST DAYS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW -SHRA EXIST THIS MORNING FOR SW COLORADO...PERHAPS OBSCURING
SOME MOUNTAIN TOPS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. AFTER 17Z...SHRA/TSRA
WILL FORM OVER SRN MOUNTAINS AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD OVER THE VALLEYS
OF SW COLORADO AND SE UTAH. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS (G30-40KTS) AND
LOCAL +SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ILS CIGS MAY OCCUR FROM ANY PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ISOLATED
-SHRA/-TSRA MAY PERSIST UNTIL DAYBREAK.

NORTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KGUC...AIR MASS WILL BE MOSTLY
STABLE ALTHOUGH ISOLATED -TSRA WILL FORM OVER THE NWRN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF


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