Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 260435
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1035 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to develop and
work their way off the Rockies and across the central high plains
through late this afternoon and overnight. No severe weather is
expected with these storms since they should dissipate as they
move east of the eastern Colorado border region.

A warm front lifts northeast across the forecast area on Tuesday
as surface high pressure divides and moves to the east and west
of the area and a surface trough deepens along the eastern plains
of Colorado in response to the changing upper air pattern.
Amplifying northwesterly flow aloft is expected as the upper high
retrogrades over the west and an upper trough begins to deepen
over the Mississippi Valley region.

Timing of a short wave trough aloft moving through the
increasingly northwest flow is favorable for late afternoon and
evening timing of thunderstorm enhancement along the warm frontal
boundary as it lifts northeast across the area. Expect a few
strong to marginally severe storms mainly north of U.S. Highway
40.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Western ridge strengthens as we head into Wednesday. As the ridge
builds, it will enhance the eastern trough and bring northwest flow
aloft to the CWA on Thursday and Friday. An unsettled pattern will
develop as a result of this flow pattern as a series of shortwave
troughs propagate between the western high pressure area and the
eastern trough. Guidance does not agree upon the timing or strength
of the troughs; however, a pattern emerges that supports afternoon
thunderstorm chances each day through Friday with convective
possibilities extending into the overnight hours as well.
The best PoPs are on Thursday afternoon/evening as a strong trough
moves across the region. Good low and mid-level lapse rates in the
presence of a strong theta-e gradient, CAPE values over 1600 J/Kg
(GFS), and shear over 50kt (GFS) will lead to possible severe
thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening.
High temperatures through Thursday will be near normal in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

The ridge will begin to slide eastward on Friday and Saturday which
will flatten and speed up the pattern a bit. We will likely see
temperatures begin to rise above normal as the ridge moves across
the CWA with middle to upper 90s possible on Sunday and Monday. PoPs
decrease as heights increase and subsidence takes over as we head
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1033 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the period as sfc ridge
retreats and southerly return flow sets up across area. Could see
some low stratus/patchy fog develop around edge og the area, but
best probabilities remains south and west of GLD.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JRM



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