Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 311734
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1134 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE CHALLENGE FIRST THING THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SECOND CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND PLAINS STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING WARM ENOUGH
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THERE ARE NO
CURRENT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND WINDS
INCREASE AS THEY BEGIN TO TURN FROM AN EAST/NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE
SOMEWHAT DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES AT MOST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SINCE MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN REMAINS LIMITED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SO WE WILL ADD RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA...
FROM HORACE, KS NORTHEAST TO ALMENA KS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE
FRONT COMPLETES ITS MOVEMENT OVER THE AREA THE SKY WILL START
CLEARING... WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A DROP IN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE GOODLAND AND MCCOOK
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AT INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AT GOODLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND BECOME GUSTY TO 25 KNOTS OR SO TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT MCCOOK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...99



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