Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 310018
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
618 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

GRIDS WERE UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRED RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
TO THE EAST A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WAS SEEN IN THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS.  AT
THE SURFACE A TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.  AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OBSERVED.  NORTH OF THE
TROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WERE ALSO BREEZY...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 10 PERCENT AND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECLINE AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD.  THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-70.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  TEMPERATURES IN THE
925-850MB LAYER ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS FALLING TO THE LOW 20S AND 30S...WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT...AND A CLEAR SKY...AM THINKING LOWS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AT BEST.

TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM.  DURING THE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DESPITE THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN COOLER BY MID WEEK AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND
IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH THAT SWEEPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING AGAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EASTERN COLORADO MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WHILE
AREAS EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER MAY SEE ONLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO
AN END.

A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES DURI8NG THE WEEKEND
FOR A RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WIND FIELD
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. AT THAT TIME...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER



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