Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271542
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
842 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECASTS TO REMOVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES AS WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA. 12Z NAM SHOWS SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
18Z...THEN NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NEBRASKA. MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND IOWA
STATE LINE. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A
TIGHT TD GRADIENT FROM THE WEST (AROUND 10F) TO THE NORTHEAST (-2F).

REGARDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE 12-15Z TIME
PERIOD THIS MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST...IF TEMPS IN
THE ADVISED AREA WERE TO DROP TO AROUND 4F OR LOWER WINDS WOULD
SUPPORT -15F WIND CHILLS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS
TEMPS STEADY IN THE WEST WHERE THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE -10F OR WARMER RANGE. AT THIS POINT I SEE NO REASON
TO CHANGE ADVISORY CONSIDERING HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE. CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE SIMILAR AS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER THE LIMITING FACTOR ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND ONGOING ADVISORY THIS MORNING I PREFER
TO LET THE CURRENT ONE PLAY OUT.

TODAY...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
PARTS OF NW KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPARENT ON WEB CAMS AND OBSERVED AT WFO. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CONSIDERING THE LIGHT NATURE OF
THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE CWA IT IS HARD TO JUDGE HOW MUCH
ACCUMULATION IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING AND TREND IN GUIDANCE HAS BE
TOWARDS LOWER VALUES. MAIN THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE BEFORE 18Z...WITH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW DIMINISHING
AFTERWARDS. IT APPEARS 1-2" SHOULD STILL BE THE HIGH END OF
ACCUMULATION FROM NOW THROUGH MIDDAY (MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70). AS WINDS INCREASE WE COULD STILL SEE BLOWING SNOW
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED THREAT AND TIED TO
ANY NEW SNOWFALL RATHER THAN OLD/CRUSTED OVER SNOW PACK. I KEPT
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MENTION AND DO NOT THINK THERE IS A NEED FOR
ADVISORY AS VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ISOLATED.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...H3 JET BEGINS TO TRANSITION NORTHWARD OVER
THE CWA AS TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SW US. RESULT WITH BE BROAD
AREA OF WEAK FORCING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH BETTER FORCING
TIED TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER PRECIP SIGNALS EITHER WELL WEST
OF THE CWA...OR SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WE COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE IN OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST CWA AND AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH 1-2" ON
THE HIGHER END OF TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY I TRENDED POPS
LOWER THROUGH ALL THESE PERIODS AND ADJUSTED HIGHEST POPS TO BE IN
THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CORRELATING WITH BEST
PRECIP SIGNAL.

REGARDING TEMPS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WE SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLOW MODERATION TO TEMPS ALOFT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLANS
OVER THE TOP OF THE PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE DAYTIME/NIGHTTIME
TEMPS...SO ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONSENSUS/MODEL TRENDS. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS HAVE THE JET POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY END UP KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WILL LIKELY ALSO MOVE THE JET ENHANCED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE
ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.

THE UPPER LOW CENTER THAT STARTS OUT AS A CLOSED LOW OVER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY.  THIS IS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER BAJA AND ANOTHER LOW IN PHASE WITH
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT BEGINS MOVING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ENTIRE MAJOR TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS EAST
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND SPREADS THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SNOW WILL COME TO AN END ON WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
COLD AIR SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW IS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE KGLD TERMINAL WITH IFR VIS
AND MVFR CIGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD AT KMCK. CONDITIONS COULD VARY THIS MORNING AT KGLD THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR ISNT LIKELY UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AS LONG
AS LIGHT SNOW LINGERS. AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY BLOWING
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED VIS DUE TO
THIS IS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION DURING THIS UPDATE. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KGLD BASED ON TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE BREAKS IN STRATUS ALLOWING FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
RESULT IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND MVFR DEVELOPING AT
KMCK LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...HOWEVER ADVECTION FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULE OUT.
LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO REDEVELOP...THOUGH BETTER CHANCE APPEAR TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR



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