Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 030842
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE EAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
TOWARD SUNRISE SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
(AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE) TRANSPORT INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG INTO THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR MID 60S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FOR WEDNESDAY SFC LOW EXPECTED BETWEEN GOODLAND AND LEOTI AROUND 12Z
WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD KULS BY 18Z THEN SOUTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY. MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT MAKING
CONVECTIVE AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING.

FROM WHAT I CAN GATHER BY THE GFS/NAM THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR IN THE 700-500MB LAYER COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. ALSO IN THIS LAYER IS DOWNWARD MOTION. BELOW 700MB
MOISTURE MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING (DESPITE UNCAPPED CAPE
UP TO 4500 J/KG FROM THE NAM) TIL CLOSE TO 00Z WHEN 250 JET MAX
APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO FEEL THAT ISOLATED/LOW CHANCE POPS
WARRANTED AND HAVE LOWERED THEM FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MY
CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF ONE WERE TO BASE IT ON
MODEL QPF WHICH IS VERY LITTLE. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO
DEVELOP WILL CERTAINLY BE SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN YUMA COUNTY TO
THE MID/UPPER 80S FROM HILL CITY TO WALLACE AND TRIBUNE SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL SHOW A UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH IS A FACTOR TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. WHICH MEANS THE TRI STATE
AREA REMAINS IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY... AND THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY... AFTER THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AS IT LOOKS LIKE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER... IT IS TOO SOON
TO KNOW FOR SURE IF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

MEANWHILE... BACK TO OUR CURRENT PATTERN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE TRI STATE REGION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KGLD TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM NEAR KMCK AS A LINE OF STORMS TO THE
NORTH OF KMCK MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE FORECAST
SOUNDING FOR KMCK SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG WITH
RESULTING MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN INCREASING CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING AT KGLD AND KMCK AS A
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS



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