Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240911
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
311 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY DECREASING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING
LEAVING A SUNNY SKY ACROSS THE AREA BY NOON IF NOT SOONER. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST BY
THE END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN EASTERN
COLORADO...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOWS
TONIGHT MID TO UPPER 30S WEST...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE
STATE LINE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER RIDGE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MAY SEE
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT
10-15F FROM THURSDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING LOW TO MID 80S. REMAINING
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES. WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENT (NOT THE BEST FOR FULL MIXING) DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO AND GONE WITH MID 70S TO
LOW 80S (COOLEST IN EASTERN COLORADO). SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME
BREEZY OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY THE END OF THE DAY. LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY IMPACT MIXING POTENTIAL AND HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 5-12F ACROSS THE AREA FROM
FRIDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
REMAINING GUIDANCE AVERAGING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. PARTIAL MIXING
SUPPORTS MID 80S TO AROUND 90 WHICH IS THE WAY I WENT JUST IN CASE
CLOUDS ARE THICKER THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. FURTHER NORTH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH MID 40S IN EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE BORDER (HIGHEST IN THE HILL CITY AND
NORTON AREAS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH INTO
NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE MID WEEK AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS PLACES
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HIGH WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE...BUT AM
NOT SOLD ON THE PRECIP CHANCES JUST YET.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIP...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT POPS GENERALLY BELOW 50 PERCENT DUE TO
CONCERNS ABOUT MOISTURE. PWATS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED NOTHING
TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...USUALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...SO EVEN IF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE GREAT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS
OKAY ABOVE 700MB...BUT BELOW THIS ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY DRY WITH A NEARLY 25F DEGREE T-TD
SPREAD. WITH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS MONDAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE
AN EVENT WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ANYWAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
VERY STRONG GUSTS ASSOCIATED ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR A MORE RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH 40 TO 50 KTS MIXING DOWN. STILL THINKING AT LEAST WIND
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN STEADILY DECREASING AND BACKING TO THE WEST AROUND 10KTS BY
00Z FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNDER
10KTS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z
WITH A QUICK CLEARING BY 15Z LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

TODAY...CRITICAL HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT DEVELOP ACROSS
GREELEY AND WALLACE COUNTY KANSAS AND CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO IN
THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SAME TIME WHICH IS BELOW
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. FOR NOW NO HIGHLITES
PLANNED BUT SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

FRIDAY...CRITICAL HUMIDITY VALES BELOW 15 PERCENT DEVELOP ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO SOUTHEAST INTO WALLACE...GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES FROM 18Z-01Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH DEVELOP
IN THE 22Z OR 23Z TIME FRAME THROUGH 02Z OR SO. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A 3 HOUR WINDOW FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE MET. LATER SHIFTS
WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY FOR A FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLITE.

SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLS BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE
18Z-01Z TIME FRAME WHILE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO
40 MPH DEVELOP DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES
APPEAR LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99






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