Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 302333
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS EVENING...
STORMS MAY APPROACH SITES AFTER 03Z. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
POPS AND WITH THE CAP HOLDING FIRM IN THE TRI-STATE REGION...
REMOVED VCTS MENTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
TO MAINTAIN VCTS MENTION. VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PLACED LLWS INTO TAF AS WE SHOULD APPROACH CRITERIA. FOR TOMORROW...
A FRONT MOVES IN AND BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS TO TAF SITES. ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT KMCK IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM THAN KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



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