Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
137 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1209 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Although temperatures begin to cool through the weekend, they
remain above normal for this time of year. Dry conditions also
persist today and through the weekend.

The upper ridge in place over the central United States flattens
somewhat today and tonight as a short wave trough moves through
the Intermountain West. This short wave trough emerges east of the
Rockies and moves across the northern and central high plains
regions on Saturday. In response to the upper short wave trough
moving east of the Rockies, a surface low center deepens over the
forecast area early Saturday and elongates along a cold front as
it moves south and east across the plains. A cooler area of high
pressure at the surface moves into the northern and central plains
on Sunday behind the front. The upper trough moves east over the
Mississippi Valley region and is replaced by a ridge that moves
from the high plains eastward across the plains states on Sunday.

High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s today become cooler
on Sunday with readings in the lower 70s to lower 80s on Saturday.
By Sunday, high temperatures will range from the upper 60s over
the eastern sections of the forecast area with middle 70s over the
west as the cooler area of high pressure begins to move off to the
east to be replaced by another surface trough deepening along the
front range with the approach of the next upper level short wave
trough moving through the Intermountain region and into the
Central Rockies Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The overall pattern looks fairly quiet over the weekend into
early next week as the current upper high over southern Rockies
gradually flattens out over the weekend. A weak cold front will
slide through the area dry on Saturday dropping temperatures from
unseasonably warm 80s back into the 70s which is still a good
10-15 degrees above normal. After that, a series of weak short
wave troughs aloft eject out of the West Coast trough and move
over the central-northern Plains. This will bring another weak
cold front south, cooling temperatures back into the 60s Tue-Wed.

The next chance of precipitation looks to be at the end of the
forecast period from Wed night into Friday as a good chunk of
energy moves over the Rockies and into the Plains. Main problem is
the system that the models bring in is currently somewhere over
the dateline and likely not sampled well. Thus, model solutions
diverge quite a bit and confidence is low in the timing, location
and amount of any precip. Lowered pops from the init in that time
frame after collaborating with neighbors.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

VFR conditions with scattered high clouds are expected at GLD and
MCK through the TAF period. Southwest winds will become light and
variable after 12Z as a surface trough moves into position across
the central high plains. Light winds will turn back to the south
after 00Z as the surface trough retrogrades back into position
along the Colorado Front Range.




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