Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 310728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND COLD AIR WILL RUSH
IN. RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDY AND COLD HALLOWEEN WEATHER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS WISCONSIN
AT 07Z SHOW GUSTS FROM 25 TO 32 KNOTS IN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THIS AREA WILL BE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY
WHEN SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
REACH THE SFC.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF TODAY. A BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATTM WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS BACK IN WISCONSIN AND THE MICHIGAN
UPPER PENINSULA. THESE SHOULD FILL IN THIS MORNING AS SHARP UPPER
TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND H5 LOW CUTS OFF.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDER THREAT TODAY IS DEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT
FROM THE FORECAST...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW ANY SFC HEATING
TO PRODUCE SOME UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. SO THERE COULD BE SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS OF SNOW OR GRAUPEL THAT WOULD WHITEN THE GROUND IN
A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH GROUND UP NORTH.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FLOW
GOES NORTH AND NORTHEAST. QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER TO FOLLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WE ARE WATCHING A COUPLE OF POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS THAT COULD
PRODUCING MINOR IMPACTS TO THE AREA. ONE COMES IN DURING THE MON
NIGHT AND TUE TIME FRAME...AND THE OTHER COMES IN DURING THE WED
NIGHT AND THU TIME FRAME.

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT QUIET WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA...WE WILL SEE
THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE WRN U.S. COAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...AND MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY ON TUE.
THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A DECENT SHOT OF SOME RAINFALL.

WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WX THEN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL COME WED NIGHT
AND THU. A JET STREAK COMING IN FROM OFF OF THE PACIFIC WILL HELP TO
DIG ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS FAR
SOUTH...AND WILL NOT HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF IT UNTIL THE
TROUGH IS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM JUSTIFIES HAVING A CHC OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE... HOWEVER THE CHCS WILL BE KEPT LOW FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS ARE PROGRESSING SE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWER CIGS WILL FORM OVERHEAD WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS AROUND THE AREA WITH
CIGS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE LOW END OF MVFR THROUGH 12Z. CIGS
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH SHOWERS AROUND. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
WILL GUST WELL INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE OUT AT
MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AND THEN CLEAR OUT WITH THE NORTH WIND AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING. EXPECT NORTH GALES ALONG THE
NEARSHORE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK
DECREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES AND CONDITIONS BECOMING FAIRLY CALM BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE TOO LIGHT TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
THE RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO




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