Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 230300 AAC
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Jose will meander well south of Cape Cod into
the weekend, gradually weakening with time. Meanwhile, a large
building ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather across
our region through the weekend and into early next week. We`ll
see a very nice stretch of dry and unseasonably warm weather
with temperatures running well above normal Saturday through at
least Monday. A front will remain nearly stationary north of
our region Wednesday, before sweeping south as a cold front on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
11 PM Update...
Updated to ingest latest mesoscale model data and adjust trends.
Looks like a quiet night with a few patches of fog in the
valleys and clouds moving away from the coast.


8:15 PM Update...
Few changes to the forecast for this update. Adjusted sky cover
as the cloud shield associated with Jose retreats somewhat. Only
a few sprinkles are falling now near Manchester and this should
end soon. No other changes.


5:50 PM Update...
A few showers from Jose are brushing coastal and southern NH as
well as southern York County in Maine. These showers will
gradually move offshore the next few hours as Jose shifts away.
Much drier air in place (dew points in the 30s and 40s) will
allow temperatures to fall quickly in areas without cloud cover.
Winds should also drop off after sunset. No major changes to the
forecast except to add fog to additional valleys and adjust
PoPs.


Previous discussion...
Jose remains quasi-stationary well south of Cape Cod. The
northern cloud shield made its way into southern areas and will
linger through this evening. Across central and northern areas
the clear skies will gradually work further south into southern
areas toward morning as the ridge of high pressure will continue
to slowly build across the area. Clear skies and winds become
near calm over central and northern areas will mean cool low
temps in the lower 50s while southern areas will remain in the
lower 60s due to the cloud cover. Valley fog once again expected
along the CT River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Like a broken record, Jose remains nearly stationary well south
of Cape Cod. Meanwhile, a large ridge of building high pressure
into the region will dominate the weather Saturday and Saturday
night with clear skies and much warmer temps. Highs will reach
into the 80s most areas with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main focus in the long term portion of the forecast will be
late-season heat Sunday and how long that lasts. Sunday will
indeed be very warm to hot with highs well into the 80s to
around 90 in spots which will be record-tying or record-breaking
heat in some areas, most notably Concord NH (record for Sunday
there is 90). Forecast problems arise on Monday as some guidance
(like the GFS and NAM) are suggesting a backdoor front cools us
down significant. However, the ECMWF still stays very warm.
Right now I think the ECMWF has a better handle on the deep
layer ridge position overhead and therefore a better handle on
short wave progression that could be responsible for backdoor
front movement. For now the ECMWF is stronger with the ridge and
keeps the region (except the immediate coast) quite warm Monday
right through Tue. Have used a blend of guidance maxes and mins
but gave the ECMWF much greater weight. Will continue to watch
closely, however as we all know how easy it is for denser low
level cool air to slip on down from the northeast. Otherwise,
it should remain dry through Tuesday. A cold front looks to
approach from the west Wed/Thu with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, probably more likely Wed. Thereafter, much cooler
weather arrives as Maria passes well out to sea.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday/...VFR conditions except some MVFR
cigs over southern and coastal areas of ME/NH through the early
evening. LIFR conditions develop 06z-13z Sat along the CT River
Valley once again otherwise VFR.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected Sunday through
Tuesday, with IFR valley fog likely at night in the interior.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Saturday night/...The remnants of Jose will
remain nearly stationary well south of Cape Cod through
Saturday. This will mean SCA conditions are expected to continue
over the outer waters through Saturday, mostly in the form of
Haz seas, except southernmost areas where gusty winds may
continue. In Casco Bay...swells of 3-6 ft continue along the
outer harbor areas so a SCA due to hazardous seas will be needed
through Saturday morning.

Long Term...Sub-SCA conditions are likely Sunday into early
midweek.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Long period swells from the remnants of Jose will continue
through through Saturday. Some minor beach erosion remains possible.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for MEZ023>027.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 1 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ150-152-153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Marine
LONG TERM...Ekster



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