Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 312055
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SKIES CLEAR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. GORGEOUS WEATHER FOR
THE TRICK OR TREATERS TONIGHT BUT BY 9 PM MAY GET A LITTLE COOL SO
A CAPE OR ROBE MAY BE A GOOD LAST MINUTE ADDITION TO THE COSTUMES.

RIDGE DOMINATES WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFTS AWAY TO
THE EAST WITH SE TO S FLOW RESUMING AND STRENGTHENING. RAIN
CHANCES RAMP UP AS LARGE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WEST AND SLOWS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS LOOKING GOOD
WITH PW 1.9+ AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE RAINS MAY
INITIATE WEST OF THE AREA AND EXPAND INTO THE AREA BUT WITH
UNCERTAINTY FOR WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER RAINS SET UP. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP POPS HIGH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS DIVERGE
RADICALLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS OF AROUND 30
GOING THU AND FRI WITH THE POOR AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. EXPECT
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO IMPROVE WITH THE 12Z RUN ON SATURDAY
AND 00Z RUNS SUNDAY.
45



&&
.MARINE...
WINDS COMING UP AND WILL MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS WITH NORTH WINDS
20+ KNOTS GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
DECREASING. THE SCA TO 15Z BUT THE NEARSHORE WATERS MAY DROP OFF
SOONER.  NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 6-8 FEET.
UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS MODELS DIVERGE
RADICALLY WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE OR DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW
TO THE WEST.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. WINDS NEVER CAME UP TO EXPECTED LEVELS BUT ACROSS THE AREA
WINDS HAVE GOTTEN GUSTY. UPDATED TAF TO SHOW A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
WEAKER GUSTS THEN RELAXING THIS EVENING. WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT
AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST.
45

&&

.FIRE...
DRY TODAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING TO 24-30 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
WINDS HAVENT BEEN AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD DROP OFF TONIGHT.
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH THE DRY AIR STILL
FIRMLY IN PLACE AND MAY SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS
5-9 MPH SLOWLY VEERING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AND
MOISTURE SURGES BACK ON MONDAY.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  65  41  72  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              45  66  41  71  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            54  64  54  70  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45/39



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