Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 200940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

It`s another very warm and muggy early morning across Southeast Texas
with 3 AM temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Little temperature change is expected during the remaining overnight
hours under the ongoing elevated south to southeast winds, and this
will allow for another day of possible record high temperatures in
Galveston and another day of record high minimum temperatures across
the area. A tight pressure gradient will keep winds elevated and gusty
today (close to wind advisory criteria). The area could see some showers
develop today, but still expecting to see a significant increase in
shower and thunderstorm coverage and intensity tonight mainly across
our northwest counties and then areawide on Wednesday underneath a deep
southwest flow aloft as moderate to strong low level convergence develops
along and ahead of an approaching and slow moving cold front while the
area becomes located in a somewhat divergent flow aloft. With precipitable
water values approaching 1.80 inches, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible. While the highest rainfall totals with this storm system
will end up off to our north and northeast (possibly exceeding 5 to
7 inches around the Arklatex area per WPC`s latest 5-Day QPF forecast),
it still looks like our area could get rainfall totals of around 3 to 4
inches north, 1 to 3 inches central and around an inch near the coast.
With these totals, widespread flooding is not anticipated and we may end
up with mostly localized street flooding on major roads/highways, feeder
roads and intersections. Will continue to indicate slightly lower rain
chances on Thursday as the front that had stalled from around Matagorda
Bay to the South Houston area begins to work its way back to the north.
Have rain chances (higher to the north and lower to the south) remaining
in the forecast Friday and Saturday. A cold front that makes it offshore
over the weekend could give us a brief break in the rain by Saturday
night and/or Sunday, but it could become stationary near the coast at
the end of the weekend and into the start of next week and provide parts
of our area more chances of rain.

So far this year, rainfall totals are...
- CLL:  1.78 inches (3.45 inches below normal)
- IAH:  5.77 inches (0.23 inches above normal)
- HOU:  5.71 inches (0.39 inches below normal)
- GLS:  3.94 inches (1.95 inches below normal)

Wednesday`s (2/21) record rainfall amounts are...
- CLL:  2.75 inches (set in 1928)
- IAH:  1.98 inches (set in 1928)
- HOU:  2.56 inches (set in 1969)
- GLS:  1.70 inches (set in 1928)



Moderate/strong onshore flow and elevated seas will persist offshore
today and will extend the small craft advisory through this
afternoon. Closer to the coast, cooler shelf waters are slightly
limiting speeds to closer to 15kt but could need some caution flags
in the bays later today as we start seeing some gusts. Water levels
are currently running 1-1.5` above normal, but even these levels
shouldn`t pose as coastal flood threat.

Warmer water temps and higher wind speeds have kept the sea fog in
check with reported visby`s generally above 4nm this morning. That
being said, a cold front will be sagging into se Tx later tonight
and pulling up stationary inland. As this occurs, wind speeds should
diminish and would expect visby`s to start going back down and
possibly be a periodic problem until the next front moves off the
coast late Saturday. 47


Breezy sse winds are expected today with some 25kt gusts a decent
possibility at most terminals. Look for MVFR ceilings to prevail
most of the day with a couple of hours of VFR mixed in this
afternoon. Ongoing TAFs have a pretty good handle on the situation
and trends will mostly be left as-is in the 12Z package. Shra/tstms
should make their way into the CLL/UTS area this afternoon...slowly
sagging sse toward the metro airports early Wed. 47


College Station (CLL)      78  64  70  53  67 /  60  80  90  70  60
Houston (IAH)              79  67  78  62  73 /  40  60  80  70  60
Galveston (GLS)            75  66  75  64  71 /  30  50  70  70  50


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.


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