Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 230005
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
705 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update to clear out skies and lower pops overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
Skies clearing out rapidly and expect winds to decouple at most
sites by 06z. Patchy fog a good bet at the rural sites and may see
some MIFG at IAH. By 13-14z skies become CU filed with SCT
possibly BKN VFR CIGS for a few hours 14-16z. Narrow band of
moisture lingers along the I-10 corridor and could get a few
showers or even a thunderstorm but coverage looks less than today
with subsidence increasing on northeasterly flow aloft edging down
over the region. Will hold off on VCSH/VCTS as expectation for
coverage is so low.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Best shower/thunderstorm coverage so far today has been in/around
the Matagorda Bay and Jackson County areas where the highest moisture
levels have been found. Isolated to widely scattered storm development
is still possible across the rest of our area over the next several
hours (peak heating) with all activity expected to dissipate early
this evening. The area still looks to be on the warm and dry side
over the weekend with only spotty mainly daytime shower/thunderstorm
development anticipated. Models are generally trending next week`s
increasing rain chances associated with an approaching storm system
and accompanying cold front to be setting up across the western and
central parts of the state as weak mid/upper level ridging centered
out in the Gulf tries to be a player for our area. Once the ridging
breaks and we do get the front on through, look for some drier and
slightly cooler weather to eventually work its way into our area. 42

MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore winds, seas around 2 to 3 feet,
and periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the waters this weekend and into next week. A cold front may
push off the coast late in the week next week. Tides continue
to run about 0.5 to 1 foot above normal but should remain
below any critical thresholds for impacts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

AVIATION...
A few isolated showers and storms will be possible across the
western portion of the area today, but coverage is expected to be
too low to include in the tafs. Expect some fog/low stratus once
again overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning, with the
greatest potential north of KIAH. Conditions will probably be
slightly better than what occurred this morning due to slightly
less available moisture. Any fog/low cigs that do develop will
improve around mid-morning, with VFR conditions expected for the
rest of the period. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
once again tomorrow afternoon, but coverage is expected to be too
sparse to include in this taf package.

11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

CLIMATE...
Through the first three weeks of the month...

-College Station had an average temperature of 79.4 degrees (1.9
 degrees below normal) and a rainfall total of 0.22 inches (2.03
 inches below normal)

-Houston Intercontinental Airport had an average temperature of
 79.0 degrees (1.9 degrees below normal) and a rainfall total of
 0.98 inches (1.99 inches below normal).

-Hobby Airport had an average temperature of 81.5 degrees (0.3
 degrees above normal) and a rainfall total of 3.16 inches (0.71
 inches below normal)

-Galveston had an average temperature of 82.6 degrees (right at
 normal) and a rainfall total of 0.01 inches (4.51 inches below
 normal). Galveston`s drier September on record is 0.04 inches set
 in 1924.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      72  91  72  91  71 /  10  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              73  91  73  89  73 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  88  79  88  79 /  10  20  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45


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