Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281116
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
515 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A NEAR RECORD DAY OF WARMTH...TODAY WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE
AVERAGE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND
YESTERDAY WILL BE THE GENERAL WIND DIRECTION. YESTERDAY`S LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE CERTAINLY WAS THE IMPETUS TO THE COASTAL WARM UP
BUT...AS SOUTHERN GULF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THROUGH TOMORROW...TODAY`S REGIONAL WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE.
AMPLE SUN UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT SOUTHERLIES WILL EQUATE
TO ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MANY INTERIOR SITES REACHING AND SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDING 75 F. AS INTERIOR DEW POINTS SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
50S/UPPER 50S OVER THE WATERS...THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PATCHY FOG (POSSIBLY SEA FOG) DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER TRANSITORY RIDGING MOVING EAST TODAY WILL EVOLVE INTO THE
REGION FALLING DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE BAJA REGION UPPER LOW THROUGH
LATE WEEK. A NEAR 1040 MB HIGH DESCENDING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY WILL AID IN PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THAT NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING AIR
MASS WILL COOL CONDITIONS DOWN AN AVERAGE 10 TO NEAR 15 DEGREES FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND AN
ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST-EAST WIND.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WITH A DEVELOPING ROCKY MOUNTAIN LEESIDE SURFACE LOW...WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...WEEKEND WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION BECOMES MORE EFFICIENT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERN CWA PRECIPITATION (LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS) WILL BEGAN FORMING
FURTHER EAST AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE LATE DAY HOURS.
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF -RA OR -SHRA WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FEW
TENTHS TO SLIGHTLY OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE POLAR JET PROPERLY POSITIONS ITSELF FOR BETTER DIFFULENCE
(RRQ) OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER AN
OVERCAST...COOL AND DAMP SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE SUNDAY WILL CLEAR OUT ALL LINGERING RAIN. PROG SOUNDINGS
DISPLAY ENOUGH MID-LEVEL COOLING SUNDAY TO PLACE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON STORMS WITHIN THE GRIDS. THE BACKING COLD AIR
MASS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT EARLY WORK WEEK WARMTH TO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 F (AFTER A MONDAY SUNRISE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S).
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF PUSHING THE 5H
TROF AXIS EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. MONDAY`S OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND...UNDER CLEARING
SKIES...A WARM UP WILL COMMENCE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. AFTER A
MONDAY WHERE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 F...
SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOONS WILL EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S BY LATE WEEK/(LESS) CHILLED MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE MID TO UPPER
40S. AFTER SUNDAY`S RAIN ON FEBRUARY 1ST...NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH. 31

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS QUITE BULLISH ON THE FORMATION OF SEA FOG
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T APPEAR DEW POINTS
CLIMB ALL THAT MUCH ABOVE CURRENT WATER TEMPERATURES SO FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REGARD IS QUITE LOW. STILL WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE - MAYBE TO CAUTION
CRITERIA. ONSHORE WINDS WILL QUICKLY RESUME OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING. GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS TIGHT AND WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME 30+KT GUSTS. NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION
WOULD ALSO POINT TO LIKELIHOOD OF LOWERING WATER LEVELS & NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBILITY FOR A LOW WATER ADVISORY. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
ANY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FCST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
POSSIBILITY OF FOG/SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT (POSSIBLY DENSE) NEAR THE
COAST LATER THIS EVENING - EVENTUALLY SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS SOMEWHAT LOW AND PROBABLY
WON`T GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS SOME OF THE MODEL DATA JUST YET.
47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  53  72  46  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  52  73  48  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  56  70  52  57 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/47


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