Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300900
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
400 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT OKLAHOMA CITY TO
ABILENE TO FORT STOCKTON. SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT SURGES SOUTH...AND PUSHES EAST A BIT MORE SLOWLY.
SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES SHOW 1.6-1.9 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 82 DEGREES.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BROADLY DIVERGENT AND ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
DIVERGENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SE TX WILL BRIEFLY LIE IN A
RIGHT REAR QUAD SATURDAY NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 15-17Z AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.
THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST AND
WILL REACH THE NORTHERN ZONES ABOUT 18Z. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN
TO WORK INLAND DURING THE AFTN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND THE TWO FEATURES SHOULD MERGE OVER SE TX DURING THE
AFTN. THE NAM 12 IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SEA BREEZE/FRONT
COLLIDING AROUND 21Z WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE
U.S. HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. THE NAM IS PRODUCING 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS HARRIS...BRAZORIA AND FT BEND COUNTIES. THE QPF OUTPUT FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE BENIGN BUT THEY ARE BASICALLY ON THE
SAME PAGE WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE MERGING WITH THE COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS BUT FEEL THE THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THINK THE WATCH
WILL BE TRIMMED FROM THE NORTH TOWARD EVENING ONCE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME CLEAR.

THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A
TROUGH AT 500 MB WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTN.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ON MONDAY BUT IT LOOKS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO STILL TRIGGER A FEW AFTN SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES ON MON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS TUE-FRI. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY GET TO ABOVE CAUTION LEVELS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  67  81  64  85 /  70  50  30  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  70  83  66  87 /  80  70  50  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  75  81  74  81 /  50  50  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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