Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 110439
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF REASONING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS
FOR CXO/UTS AROUND SUNRISE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST CONVECTIVE CELL OVER WALKER COUNTY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING
SHORTLY. THINK REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHER MOISTURE AND PART OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE CONTRIBUTED TO SOME CONVECTION TODAY AND
HELD MAX TEMPS MORE IN THE LOW 90S. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE AS
MUCH ACTIVITY TOMORROW BUT STILL COULD SEE AN ISO STORM
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND TX OVER
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT NO RAIN CHANCES AND MAY SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN BUT NOT CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. STILL HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 103 WILL SEE BE AN IMPACT.

EXTENDED FORECAST STILL SHOWS POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE REGION TUE/WED TIME FRAME. MAY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AND FRONT COULD STALL JUST BEFORE THE COAST. FRONT MAY KNOCK TEMPS
DOWN BELOW NORMAL BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

CLIMATE...HOUSTON USUALLY REACHES A HIGH TEMP OF 100F FOR THE
FIRST TIME OF THE YEAR AROUND JULY 19. THE LAST TIME HOUSTON
FAILED TO REACH 100F IN A CALENDAR YEAR WAS 1997.

39/38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
FEW TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM IAH WHILE APPROACHING CXO AND UTS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END QUICKLY AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST. OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF
FOG FOR CXO EARLY FRIDAY BUT IF HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION ALONG
THE COASTAL BEND SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REMOVED WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  96  74  97  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  95  75  96  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  92  80  91  81 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38


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