Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 061030
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
330 AM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW SLOWING MOVING ONSHORE
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS SHOW A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...THE HRRR MESO-SCALE MODEL
SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS
THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY. WITH THE SLOW ADVANCEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE DISTRICT WILL REMAIN IN
A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTED
FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE SURGES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL BE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY AS THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION DIMINISHES. WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL BE OBSERVED
DURING THE DAY...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SMALL. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
AS THE DISTRICT WILL THEN BE IN AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
TYPICALLY...THE FLOW PATTERN IS DRY WITH PRECIP CONFINED TO THE
HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. SUNDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION
OF THE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE TRANSITION TO A DRY
REGIME. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS THINKING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE WEST COAST.

WHILE THE TRANSITION TO A RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE SLOW AS ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE PAC-NORTHWEST/INTER-MTN
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. YET...THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ONCE THE RIDGE PATTERN PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT MAY REMAIN OVER THE
WEST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY...WHILE MODELS ARE SHOWING
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER RANGE PERIODS...THEY DO INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW EXISTING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIP TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS VERY LOW. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW
...WILL OPT FOR THE RIDGE SOLUTION IN THE LONG TERM AND WAIT FOR
BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON HOW TO DEAL WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THRU 12Z SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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