Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 290118
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
618 PM PDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...Updated air quality issues.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions continue through the upcoming weekend
as a ridge of high pressure dominates the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another day of clear skies and warming temperatures as a ridge of
high pressure shifts on to the West Coast. The cooling that
resulted from a trof passage earlier this week will now
transition back to warming as the West Coast ridge pattern
rebounds. While the trend toward warming across the San Joaquin
Valley has only been up by 1 to 3 degrees-F, this warming trend
will continue into the weekend. The current trend will have
temperatures reaching the 100 degrees-F mark by Friday  with
widespread 100 degrees-F by Saturday.

Area rivers remain a concern in the short term as high water flows
caused local flooding across the San Joaquin Valley. River gauges
have shown a decrease in the flow as area temperatures cooled.
The flow will go to a warming trend, but with less snow to work
with, hydro-models are only keeping a steady-state in the flow.
Therefore, this steady-state will keep water flows fast and cold
for at least another week. A of note concerning snow-melt, enough
has melted across the Sierra to allow the opening of opening of
Tioga Pass (Highway 120) in Yosemite on June 29th.

Model upper-air analysis show the ridge axis over the West Coast by
Friday and shifting east on Sunday. Therefore, confidence is high
with having the heat turned-on by the end of the week and into
the weekend. With 500mb heights reaching 5900 plus over California
by the end of the week, will have no problem reaching the 100
degrees-F mark at that time. Winds that have been gusty for the
last few days will continue to diminish during the latter half of
the week. Therefore, winds will not become an issue as Central
California focuses in on the brief heat.

Models show another trof passage on Sunday across California.
Upper air analysis has the trof energy crossing the region on
Sunday, which will allow for the start of a cooling trend. While
Sunday will only feeling the start of the cooling, better cooling
will be felt next week after the trof passage. Yet, temperatures
will only lower to near normal conditions. Furthermore, models do
increase the surface pressure gradient for breezy conditions at
the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior during
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday June 29 2017... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Kern
County and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...Molina
avn/fw...Molina
prev discussion...Molina
synopsis...Molina

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