Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 022311
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB OVER
WI/MI...WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IL/IN AND CONNECTED TO WEAK 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OK. CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
REACHING IN/KY BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
PREVAILING TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SE IL AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST IL CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST IL AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SOUTH OF I-64 CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SW IA...NW MO AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KS AND TRACKING ESE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE NEAR NE/IA BORDER AND PROJECTED TO TRACK SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/FRI. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST IL TONIGHT WHERE LINGERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FURTHER NORTH UP TO NEAR I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH CHANCES CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF I-70 AFTER DARK/9 PM. HRRR NOW SHOWING SOME QPF INTO AREAS SW
OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 06Z/1 AM FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SO MAY
NEED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SW COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM MID 50S NORTH OF PEORIA TO
MID 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM I-70 SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SOME WELCOME DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT SOME 15-25% POP`S
GOING SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
HANGING UP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT THESE WILL BE
LOWERING WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINT VALUES RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL
BE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN A TAD WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE LATEST RUNS. HAVE
INCREASED POP`S INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. GFS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR UNWANTED HEAVY RAIN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK STARTS TO BECOME MORE MURKY...AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE WEAK LOW PULLING MOISTURE BACK
TO THE WEST...WHICH MAY BRING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVENING (03-07Z TIME FRAME). MODELS OFFERING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS LATER THIS EVENING SO FEEL IT WOULD BE BEST TO HOLD OFF
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND WATCH SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
EVENING TO OUR EAST. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF THE LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS
REMAIN TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 5000 FEET
TO 15-18000 FEET. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH


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