Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
FXUS63 KILX 191936
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
236 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014
ISSUED 236 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014
Not much change in the overall forecast compared to recent days.
The upcoming week is expected to be warmer than normal for the
most part (for a change). The best chances for rainfall remain in
the vicinity of Monday and again by Thursday.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday:
The pleasant weekend weather will persist Sunday as southerly
winds develop between departing high pressure and slowly
approaching low pressure from the plains. This southerly flow is
expected to push temperatures a little warmer than today, but the
warm-up will be tempered some by an increase in cloud cover.
The slow moving low/frontal system from the plains is still
progged to come through later Monday into Monday night. This
system is not expected to be a significant rainfall producer due
to an overall lack of moisture. The forcing as the system comes
through is not terribly strong or focused either, driven by loosely
phased northern/southern stream upper waves.
Temperatures will cool to more normal levels (highs in the 60s,)
behind Monday`s system as upper/surface ridging, and an airmass of
Canadian origin, build into the area. However, the associated dry
airmass will keep conditions quiet.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday:
The cooler weather will linger into Wednesday, before rising upper
heights and low level return flow begin in earnest. A stronger
system is expected to arrive on Thursday, likely accompanied by
numerous showers/storms. While there is a low chance of
showers/storms across northern sections of the forecast area
Wednesday into Wednesday night in the pre-system warm advection
regime, the bulk of the threat should accompany the system`s cold
front later Thursday into Thursday night. Temperatures should
climb back above normal as this system approaches/moves through,
but a return to below normal temperatures is looking increasingly
likely by next weekend.
ISSUED 100 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014
High pressure will slowly slide east the rest of today and
tonight, allowing for a southeast return flow to continue over the
next 24 hours. Wind speeds through late afternoon will be in the
10-15 kt range. After sunset, wind speeds will diminish to the
7-9kt range for the balance of the night. Little to no cloud cover
is expected through the TAF period due to a deep layer of dry air.
Cirrus clouds may increase on Easter Sunday as low pressure
develops in the Plains.