Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 300837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
337 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

08z/3am surface analysis shows a weak bubble of high pressure
over central Illinois, while a stationary frontal boundary remains
poised just to the west from southern Iowa into eastern Missouri.
Widely scattered convection continues to develop and move
southeastward along the boundary, with most of the activity thus far
remaining west of the Mississippi River.  Will need to keep an eye
on radar trends, as a few showers could potentially reach the far
W/SW KILX CWA from Rushville to Jacksonville southwestward over the
next couple of hours.  Airmass across central Illinois is drier than
it has been over the past few days, as evidenced by precipitable
water values on the 00z KILX upper air sounding of only 0.86.  This
dry air should keep most of the showers west of the area, similar to
latest HRRR forecast.  Have therefore maintained a dry forecast
through the morning, then have introduced slight chance PoPs across
the Illinois River Valley this afternoon as the airmass slowly
moistens and the stationary front begins to shift northward.
Elsewhere around the area...mostly sunny and dry conditions will
prevail with high temperatures reaching the middle 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Forecast still showery with thunderstorm activity off and on through
the middle of the week until another upper low digs in over the
Plains and drags a front through the region. Although the models are
showing some consistency...timing confidence remains problematic.
Temperatures in the forecast stay summer-like through the first
couple of days this week...several degrees above normal.  A few
degrees cooler behind the boundary, but not by much and not for southerly flow at the sfc reestablishes and sets up WAA
briefly going into next weekend. That being said, Tue/Wed high
temperatures will fall prey to any shower/cloud activity that could
dampen the diurnal curve.

Quasi-zonal flow sets up over the Midwest today and a weak flow
pattern aloft setting up as the next low digs in over the northern
Rockies. Main concern with the forecast surrounds the progression of
the low with the performance of the models lately with timing. Not a
distinct kicker on the horizon and yet the models steadily push that
wave across the country through the first half of the week. Would
prefer a slightly slower solution...and grids reflecting that for
now. GFS/ECMWF still together with the clearing of the frontal
boundary and associated rain by Thursday morning...with the possible
exceptions of the far east/SE. Until then...showery activity in the
forecast more often than not.  Dry on the other side of the front at
least for Friday...with warm weather lasting into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours...however there is a
slight chance a few thunderstorms may approach terminals
along/west of I-55 after 18Z. The probability of any storms
affecting terminals is too low for mention at this point.
Otherwise...scattered cumulus cloud development around 5000 feet
AGL expected to develop after 18Z...gradually dissipating after
00Z. Winds west up to 6 kts through 00Z...expected to turn
southerly after 00Z.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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