Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 252028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO
328 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Shortwave moving off the Rockies at this time will move east
overnight. Resulting surface low is expected to track across Iowa
and northern Illinois on Wednesday. Low level jet ramps up tonight
over the Midwest and all guidance is showing moderate low level
moisture convergence over northern portions of the area on the
850mb baroclinic zone. Expect there will be isolated to widely
scattered showers in this region chance PoPs should
cover this well. Temperatures should bottom out warmer than this
morning`s lows...especially over west central Illinois where wind
will be turning further toward the south.

Surface low moves across northern Illinois Wednesday dragging a
cold front along behind it. Elevated instability around 300 J/kg ahead
of the front should be enough for an isolated thunderstorm or two,
but it`ll primarily be just a rainy day ahead of the front. Have
high chance to likely PoPs for showers and a few storms. Clouds
and rain will likely keep temperatures in the 60s across most of
the area.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Rain should be ending on Wednesday evening as the front moves out.
Northwest flow will bring in somewhat cooler air for Thursday, but
a ridge aloft will quickly build back over the region Thursday
night and Friday. The surface ridge will move east of the region
and low level southerly flow will redevelop over the area
resulting in breezy and warm conditions for Friday and Saturday.
Expect temperatures to be well above normal in the 70s both days.
Another front will move through the area on Sunday, but current
thinking is that there will not be enough moisture return ahead of
it to produce precip. Additionally, the ridge aloft builds back in
behind the shortwave almost immediately so any cool down will be


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail across the area at
least through tonight and into Wednesday morning. A storm system
will be moving out of the Plains into Iowa by 12Z Wednesday
morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible ahead
of the system this evening and overnight...primarily along and
north of a line from SPI to DEC to CMI. Ceilings will gradually
drop below 10,000 FT to the 4000-7000 FT range by Wednesday
morning, but am not expecting any widespread lower ceilings until
the storm gets closer late Wednesday morning into the afternoon.
Rain and afew thunderstorms will spread east into the area from
Iowa late in the period...likely bringing ceilings and
visibilities down into MVFR range.




LONG TERM...Carney
AVIATION...Carney is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.