Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 201428

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1028 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

The Aviation Section has been updated below.


Issued at 352 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A ridge of high pressure will begin strengthening today over the
Great Lakes, bringing continued unseasonable warmth and dry
weather to the area for the next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Some dense patchy fog continues in central Indiana, with the lowest
visibilities over the eastern half or so of the forecast area.
Webcams indicate conditions have been improving. Western counties
should be free of fog within the hour with eastern counties possibly
holding onto some patchy fog until between 11 and noon. Expect all
fog to be gone by noon. After that skies should be mostly clear to
partly cloudy given a weak wave currently moving across Illinois
providing a few clouds in Indiana this afternoon. High temperatures
in the mid 80s east to around 90 west still look on track and no
changes made there.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

The ridge will continue to be the dominant feature throughout the
short term, thus will continue with a forecast of unseasonably
warm temperatures and no precipitation, albeit in a humid airmass.
Consensus numbers appeared reasonable throughout the period and
were generally accepted with minor tweaks.


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Little change is expected during this forecast period. Weather
conditions should be dry with above normal temperatures.

ECMWF shows strong ridging remaining over the eastern 1/2 of the
United States...keeping all forcing dynamic well north of Indiana,
Meanwhile the ECMWF suggests strong High Pressure building beneath
the ridge...associated with the ongoing subsidence. With Mainly
Southwest flow in place across the area along with a very warm air
mass will trend daily highs and lows at or above the forecast
builder blend which is well above seasonal normals. Partly cloudy
nights and mostly sunny days should work nicely.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 201500Z TAFS/...

Issued at 1028 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Fog has cleared out of KLAF and KHUF, and should clear out of KIND
and KBMG between 15 and 16z. After that VFR expected. Previous
discussion follows...

Models suggest High pressure across the area along with subsidence
building aloft as water vapor imagery shows a ridge over Illinois
building eastward. Forecast soundings suggest convective
temperatures maybe reached this afternoon...but drying and
subsidence should prevent deep convection.

Any clouds should be lost this evening as daytime heating is
lost...and CIGS will be unlimited overnight.




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