Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 311935
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUL 31 20144

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE OUR
WAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT DEVELOPS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP TO NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FARTHER AHEAD IN THE LONG TERM A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

SO FAR IT HAS BEEN PRETTY QUIET ACROSS OUR REGION AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR
REGION.  SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. SOME MODELS
INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT.

THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS CLOUDS WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATE. THIS HAS CAUSED MOS TEMPERATURES TO TREND A
LITTLE COOLER AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THIS FORECAST.

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT...BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING IT TO THE FORECAST AND ESPECIALLY WITH
NO AREAS SEEING ANY RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO OUR
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE AN UPPER TROUGH TO
SHARPEN ACROSS OUR REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.   WENT A LITTLE ABOVE MOS POPS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALL AREAS SATURDAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SEEM TO UNDERPLAY THE CONVECTION A LITTLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN HALF SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...BECOMING
DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY ARE TODAY...THEN
ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER SATURDAY AND EVEN A BIT WARMER BY SUNDAY.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEING ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW COOLER MET TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.  ALSO TRIMMED TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE SOME AREAS AGAIN SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MOS MAY BE
TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

ENSEMBLES IN AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO BE REPLACED BY WEAK
RIDGE FOR THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED...AND THEN A FRONT WILL
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LEFT FORECAST
BASICALLY DRY UNTIL THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
BELIEVE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE HANDLED THIS WEATHER PATTERN WELL SO DID
NOT NEED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM INITIALIZATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MID HIGHS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1219 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
ADDITIONAL FOG FRIDAY MORNING AT THE OUTLYING
TERMINALS....ESPECIALLY KLAF. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM AT IND AND LAF THIS AFTERNOON AND AT IND FRIDAY AFTER
16Z AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE...HOWEVER CHANCES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY TOO LOW TO MENTION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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