Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 221414

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
914 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

A cold front could bring some rain to parts of Friday night,
otherwise high pressure will keep central Indiana dry through the
next week. Temperatures will bounce around from below normal to
around normal readings.


.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Early this morning, an area of stratocumulus was working south into
the forecast area. The clouds extend well north into Michigan.
However, some erosion has been seen on the western edge.

The clouds should continue to move south before sunrise, mainly
across the eastern forecast area. Then, as flow becomes more
westerly during the day, the clouds will get pushed off to the east.

Will continue to watch clouds prior to issuance time, but plan to
keep skies mostly cloudy in the northeast and perhaps east before
12Z and use a pre-first period in the text product. Otherwise will
go partly cloudy east and mostly sunny west today.

The blend looks reasonable for high temperatures, which will be
below normal once again.


.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday night/
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Mid and high clouds will increase tonight across the area as an
upper trough moves through. Forcing is weak, and the lower levels
remain dry, so no precipitation is expected.

On Thanksgiving, a surface front will wash out in the area as
heights rise aloft behind the departing upper trough. Thus expect
nothing more than some clouds with it.

High pressure will then build in again and keep the area dry through
the day Friday.

Friday night, another cold front and upper trough will move through.
This could squeeze out some light rain, mainly across the north.
Will keep the blend`s low PoPs then.

Temperatures will moderate through the period.


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday Night/...

Issued at 410 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

High pressure will once again strengthen over the region and
bring dry conditions from Saturday through Tuesday. After that,
models start trending toward another surface low progged for late
in the extended period. Meanwhile, temperatures will trend closer
to normal ahead of an associated warm front on Monday and Tuesday
after cooler temperatures on Sunday.


.AVIATION (Discussion for 221500Z TAF update)...

Issued at 915 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Only minor changes needed. Previous discussion follows.

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period
with northwest winds becoming light and variable.




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