Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 232020
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
418 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EXPANDS EASTWARD.  A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER NEXT FEW
DAYS AS HEIGHTS RISE.

IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER EAST
TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE
SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF OUR REGION BY LATE MONDAY AND INTO ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION.  SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATES HIGH
THIN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS MAY SPREAD OUR WAY LATER TONIGHT.
MOST LIKELY THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT. BUT THEY COULD LESSEN AMOUNT
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT.

WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS BLEND OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER SOME AREAS THAN WHAT THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS EAST INTO OUR REGION.  SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE HIGH
CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.  850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME A LITTLE
WARMER NEXT FEW DAYS AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS OUR REGION.

IN REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER
MET TEMPERATURES AS THE MAV HAS HAD TOO MUCH OF A WARM BIAS LAST FEW
DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE MINS WERE PRETTY CLOSE AND SEEM
REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

QUIET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GOOD
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OVER A SHORT WAVE OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...NOW PUSHING THAT
SYSTEMS ARRIVAL BACK INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THUS HAVE
PUSHED LOW CHC POPS OUT UNTIL THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 232100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL
A DRY COLUMN WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO FALL TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT AS HEATING IS LOST...AND
RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND ON HIGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTER 14Z AS
HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JAS

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