Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 260154 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
755 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM ARE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION (OR PREPARING TO
EXIT...AS IS THE CASE IN EASTERN MS). DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS AMIDST
A TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLOUDS IS MAKING FOR VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AND
TEMPS IN THESE AREAS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOME
MIXING AND MAYBE A FEW CLOUDS (AND THUS HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING)
IN WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THE CASE ELSEWHERE.
DROPPED LOWS ONE TO TWO DEGREES IN MANY WESTERN AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES POST-SUNSET ARE LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED AT THIS HOUR.
ELSEWHERE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKING VERY MUCH ON TRACK AND LEFT
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAF
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PRODUCING A BAND OF THICKER MID CLOUD AND
VIRGA...BUT WE ARE NOT GETTING ANY REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND IN THE ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY EFFECT HAS BEEN TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND 50 F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WIND
AND FAVORABLE NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FAST-APPROACHING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK CAUSING A DISRUPTION IN COOLING.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE ON THE UNCOMFORTABLE SIDE. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO CHILLY START TO
THANKSGIVING DAY. /EC/

LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR
JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
US ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE QUASI-
ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT SINKING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
STALL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD
BRING SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT FROM CBM...TO MEI...TO
PIB/HBG CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS FROM 3 TO 7
KFT ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20 LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. THEREFORE VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST
AND BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  64  37  54 /   0   2   0   0
MERIDIAN      30  62  36  54 /   6   3   0   0
VICKSBURG     30  66  36  54 /   0   2   0   0
HATTIESBURG   32  64  39  58 /   8   3   0   0
NATCHEZ       33  66  38  56 /   0   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    32  62  34  49 /   0   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     29  62  34  50 /   0   6   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/19





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