Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 310841
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT AS
SOME DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS OUR
DISTURBANCE (WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAINS/STORMS) CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE AND MORE RIDGING DEVELOPS AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS INFLUENCE. WHILE
AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS (PWS 1.5 TO 1.75 IN) BECOMES SITUATED OVER
PART OF THE CWA...THE NW/N AREAS WILL STILL BE LOCATED IN THE MOIST
AXIS (PWS NEAR 2.0 IN) AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISO
ACTIVITY TODAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SOME LINGERING MORNING ACTIVITY OVER THE NE/N WILL BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL OF THE DAY PERIOD. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND MORE LIKE NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUG (89-93). THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE OVER
THE SE PORTIONS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY OTHER THAN SOMEWHAT LESS
PRECIP CHANCES AS MORE OF THE INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE
OCCURS. STILL...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE MORE OF A
DIRTY RIDGE AS DECENT MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT. WHILE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MON WILL BE ACROSS THE S/SW AREAS. AS FOR
TEMPS...READINGS WILL BE WARMER AND HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
93-95. THIS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100-104. /CME/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF PERIOD. SUBTLE FEATURES COULD ACT TO ENHANCE OVERALL
RAIN/STORM COVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.

MAIN FEATURE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A H7-H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING FLATTENED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND STRETCHED TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK.
DESPITE THIS RIDGE, S/WV TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
SKIRT THE MID-SOUTH WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO NRN STREAM INFLUENCE, MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES ALONG THE COAST IN EASTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
HELP ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK. GIVEN PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THIS PATTERN. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
S/SE/E AREAS. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT EACH DAY BUT THERE COULD BE A WINDOW LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN NEAR HWY 82 CORRIDOR
DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY INFLUENCE OCCURS. LASTLY, IT
MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR A STRONG PULSE STORM OR TWO DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE PERIOD BUT
OVERALL RISK WILL BE ASSESSED EACH DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...FOCUS THROUGH 15-17Z WILL BE ON CEILINGS. LOOK FOR A
TREND TO MVFR AND IFR BY 09-10Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TAKING
SHAPE CLOSER TO MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISO CONVECTION TODAY AND
WILL HANDLE THIS WITH SOME VCSH WORDING. MOST OF THE EVENING WILL BE
QUIET...BUT CEILINGS LOOK TO AGAIN BE A CONCERN AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  72  94  74 /  20   8  16  12
MERIDIAN      93  71  95  73 /  18  11  11   9
VICKSBURG     90  72  94  73 /  23   8  17  13
HATTIESBURG   94  74  95  75 /  18  12  17  16
NATCHEZ       90  74  93  75 /  22   6  27  17
GREENVILLE    89  73  94  74 /  25   7   7   9
GREENWOOD     89  72  95  74 /  25   8   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/ALLEN/




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