Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 262024
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
324 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon through Wednesday...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to
increase in coverage as the afternoon continues. The best coverage
will reside in the southern and western portions of the area.
Storms are expected to remain weak throughout much of the area but
there could be a few flashes of lightning associated with storms
in the southern portions of the region where more instability is
present. Chances of precip will begin to diminish as we lose
daytime heating. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60`s to near
70.

Weak mid level ridging will continue to build into the region
overnight. This will lead to lessened chances diurnal precip on
Wednesday. However, a stray shower or weak storm can`t be ruled
completely out. Temperatures will once again climb to near 90
degrees, easily exceeding their late September averages. /JPM3/

Wednesday night through Monday: Come Wednesday evening wl have a
>588dam ridge across our CWA from the Southern Plains. This ridge
axis will remain in place through Saturday. Also, Wednesday evening
a weak dry cold front will be drifting south into our CWA and take
until Thursday night to push south of the CWA. Very weak CAA in the
wake of the cold front will help hold temperatures near normal in
the north Thursday while warmer than normal temperatures continue
elsewhere. By Friday morning surface dew points will be in the 50s
with the exception of the southeast. This will allow morning lows to
bottom out around 60F which is near normal but warmer than normal
low temperatures will continue across the southern half of our CWA.
Friday morning PWATs less than an inch will reside along the
Highway 82 corridor while inch and a half PWATs continue across the
southern half of the area. Surface high pressure centered north of
our region will strengthen over our CWA through the day and combine
with the mid level ridge to maintain warm dry weather. Saturday
morning will be the coolest of the long term period as more sites
bottom out near 60F. Sunday the surface High will be northeast of
our region and the mid level ridge will weaken as a weak eastern
wave traverses the northern Gulf. Models show a surge of moisture
northward during the heat of the day that consensus suggests will
contribute to isolated convection across our southern zones. Most of
our area is expected to remain dry. The surface high will ridge into
our CWA from the northeast Monday while the mid level ridge
strengthens back over our CWA from the west. Dry weather with
slightly warmer than normal temperatures will be the result. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Mainly VFR conditions are expected within the 24 hr TAF cycle with
the exception coming by the way of some fog development in the
Pinebelt area tonight. Visbys at KHBG could go down to IFR levels
tomorrow morning. Fog will quickly dissipate as the sun rises.
/JPM3/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  91  69  88 /   7   8   4   4
Meridian      67  91  67  89 /   2   3   3   4
Vicksburg     69  90  68  87 /   5  14   6   5
Hattiesburg   68  90  69  90 /  18  10   3   6
Natchez       69  88  68  87 /  16  20  10  10
Greenville    68  91  68  84 /   4  12   7   4
Greenwood     68  91  67  85 /   3   7   4   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JPM3/22


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