Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 031020
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
520 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE COME
AROUND...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FROM MCCOMB TO
MERIDIAN. SHOWERS AND OF A THUNDERSTORM FIRED ON THE BOUNDARY...BUT
WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR. WAS INITIALLY ON
THE FENCE ABOUT MAINTAINING THUNDER THROUGH THE TODAY...MAINLY FOR
THE SMALL AREA IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER FOR TODAY...BUT WILL UPDATE AND ADD ISOLATED WORDING. WENT
WITH A LARGER AREA OF CHANCE POPS TO CATCH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION WITH THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES QUICKLY WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT THE LOWER POPS FOR
NOW. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA LATER
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ONE OR TWO MORE BOUNDARIES AND A SHORT WAVE BEFORE
LATE WEDNESDAY. NONE OF THEM DO MUCH. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE LAST BIT
OF RAIN FOR A WHILE. MOS VALUES WERE GOOD...SO WENT WITH THEM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
FOR THE PERIOD. A MID-UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SPIN ABOUT IN AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...WHILE AN MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
PREVALENT IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A BROAD MID-UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE AS WE PUSH INTO THE WEEKEND THE MID-UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH INTO THE MS VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE CWA FOR THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK. COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WILL BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S BEFORE WARMING INTO MAINLY
THE LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.

OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TO
THE WEST LIFTS UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALLOW RETURN
FLOW INTO THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME AN UPPER TROUGH AS
A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OUR RAINS CHANCES DURING THE WORK WEEK./17/


&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SITES THROUGH LATE MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF SHOWERS
AROUND HBG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AFTER ABOUT 18Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  52  76  49 /  21  10  10   2
MERIDIAN      77  49  75  48 /  27  11   8   9
VICKSBURG     76  51  77  51 /  11  12   9   4
HATTIESBURG   79  53  79  53 /  28   7   5   0
NATCHEZ       73  52  76  51 /  18  12   2   0
GREENVILLE    73  51  76  50 /  14   9  12   3
GREENWOOD     72  49  74  48 /  11   9  14   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

07/17/



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