Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 290213

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
913 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Updated for evening discussion.


Expect showers and thunderstorms to move through the area tonight
out ahead of an approaching cold front. Lows tonight will mainly be
in the lower 70s. The only change to the forecast was to increase
pops for this evening into the overnight. /27/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through Monday (Memorial Day):

As the cold front moves towards the area, expect rain and storm
chances to linger into Memorial Day on Monday. As a deep trough
and cold front swings into the western Great Lakes, a lead
shortwave will continue to eject northeast through the eastern
Great Lakes into the northeast. This will continue to drag the
cold front analyzed off to our northwest slowly to the southeast.
However, the strongest forcing will remain off to the north,
helping the cold front stall up in the ArkLaMiss Delta tomorrow.
This should help moisture to linger in the 1.5-1.75 inch range.
With vertical totals in the 26-28 deg C range, -3 to -4
Showalters, mid level lapse rates around 6-7 deg C and some
20-30kt 0-2km & 0-3km bulk shear, there seems to be enough to
warrant leaving the marginal risk, especially across along and
southeast of the ArkLaMiss Delta Monday afternoon. Updated the
graphics and HWO to show the marginal risk for severe storms. With
moisture being slightly lower, expecting the localized flooding
risk to remain low. /DC/

Tomorrow night through the rest of the week:

Rather wet and slightly cooler than average conditions generally
look to be in the cards for the Lower Mississippi Valley through
the period as perturbed southwesterly flow aloft continues. The
best rain chances should be through Tuesday night or Wednesday as
the front moving in tomorrow remains stalled in the vicinity.
Owing to the mentioned boundary and better forcing expect showers
and storms through midweek to not be exclusively diurnal,
especially tomorrow night. Strong storms (and perhaps even a stray
severe storm) will certainly not be out of the question, but in
general the needed juxtaposition of shear and instability to
warrant good confidence in severe weather is lacking.

Once we get to later Wednesday, and definitely into Thursday and
Friday, the frontal boundary will be less of a factor on our
weather as it further weakens and generally drifts north of the
region. At this point daytime temperatures may be able to get
close to 90 in a few spots and with plenty of moisture in place
the combination of warmth and humidity will both promote some
sweating and build afternoon instability and trigger related
scattered afternoon through early evening showers and
thunderstorms). Looks like the best rain chances over this period
will be focused toward northwestern zones.

By the weekend another front will be approaching from the
northwest and boosting rain chances again. Even though persistent
rain chances through this week may start to get annoying it is
worth pointing out that we will be shortly transitioning into
June (and entering the season where one might think twice about
wishing away rain and the associated opportunity for below normal
temperatures). /BB


00Z TAF discussion:

A threat for additional TSRA/SHRA will continue tonight through
Memorial Day with the greatest threat generally along/south of the
JAN/HKS to MEI corridor. Otherwise, redevelopment of lower (MVFR)
ceilings should be most prominent late tonight through morning in
roughly the same area with ceilings mixing up to VFR category late
morning/afternoon. /EC/


Jackson       70  82  68  80 /  72  63  50  63
Meridian      70  83  68  80 /  50  61  55  65
Vicksburg     69  82  68  81 /  83  62  47  56
Hattiesburg   71  84  69  82 /  50  63  50  65
Natchez       70  81  67  79 /  89  66  53  63
Greenville    69  82  67  83 /  63  56  33  36
Greenwood     69  82  66  81 /  60  57  38  42




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