Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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388
FXUS64 KJAN 262039
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
339 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Convection popped up around 16Z today and has not been as widespread
as previous days this week. Some of these storms have produced gusty
winds up to 40mph, but otherwise have been rather tame. Expect this
convection to die off early this, probably around 03Z this evening,
per hi-res models. The early clouds, storms, and the drier air
slowly filtering in has also kept the humidity and temps at bay
today. Have not seen too many heat indices above 100 this afternoon.
Temps will cool overnight to the low to mid 70s.

High pressure will remain anchored over the southeast through the
weekend. This in turn will keep temperatures hot. Easterly surface
flow around the high will bring in some slightly drier air to our
area and leave heat indices only hovering around 100 on Saturday and
Sunday. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s still. At this point, do
not see the need to continue the limited for heat in the HWO. Some heat
indices will reach over 100 but not by much and it will be isolated.
The drier air moving into the area will also keep afternoon
convection at bay. Only the southern fringes of the CWA will see any
afternoon storms through the weekend.

The long term discussion has been tweaked in some places, but
overall everything still applies. /10/

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Weather impacts in the extended portion of the forecast continue to
hinge on what transpires in the tropics over the next several days.
Otherwise, warm and somewhat dry conditions are anticipated.

By the beginning of next week, mid/upper ridging centered over the
mid-Atlantic will begin to broaden across much of the
central/eastern CONUS. As this occurs, deep layer moisture is
expected to notably decrease across our area by as much as a half
inch compared to the present. This should help curtail diurnal
precip coverage through much of the long term (of course, absent any
influence from the tropics). It will also invite above normal
temperatures, and heat stress concerns may remain in the picture
over some parts of the area next week.

This afternoon, Invest 99L, the tropical wave of interest, was still
centered between the northern coast of far eastern Cuba and the SE
Bahamas. There continues to be little convection around the center of
the system, though there is disorganized activity from the Cayman
Islands eastward to north of Hispaniola. As this system is weak and
disorganized and is likely to remain that way for the next day or
two, model track forecasts will continue to vacillate from run to
run. If the system survives into late weekend/ early next week, there
will be greater potential for strengthening as the environment
becomes more conducive for development. Until that point, forecast
certainty remains low, and it will remain uncertain how the system
will evolve and whether it might have any influence on weather
conditions in our area.

During the mid/late week time frame, upper troughing will begin to
develop along the Eastern Seaboard. Though the location of any
tropical entity by this time frame is still in question, it`s quite
possible this trough would pull such a system north and eastward. In
the wake of the trough, the upper ridge will amplify over the Plains
states into parts of the Deep South, bringing a continuation of warm
conditions. /DL/10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings and visibilities should prevail at all TAF sites today
into Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible mainly near KGLH and KGWO this afternoon. Brief gusty
winds and reductions in visibility could occur with these storms. A
few sites could also see BR develop around sunrise on Saturday
morning. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  93  72  94 /   8   9   4  13
Meridian      71  94  71  94 /   5   8   4   7
Vicksburg     71  93  72  93 /  15   9   6  16
Hattiesburg   72  93  73  92 /   4  16  12  25
Natchez       72  91  73  90 /  14  23  15  34
Greenville    72  92  73  94 /  17   8   4   5
Greenwood     72  93  72  95 /  14   8   4   6

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$



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