Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 221715 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1115 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion


18Z TAF discussion:
Late this morning MVFR and VFR ceilings were clearing from the
west to east as the last of the showers were moving toward
Alabama. Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Winds will
be out of the south initially, switching to the southwest and then
west. Speeds will be around 10kts with some gusts to near 20kts
possible. For tonight into Tuesday morning winds will be from the
west at 5 to 10 knots./17/


The rains are ending from west to east ahead of the cold front.
So have adjusted pops accordingly./17/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight...

Showers and some thunderstorms are moving into the western portion
of the forecast area early this morning. As anticipated, much of
this activity has lost its severity as it moved across Louisiana and
into the western portions of my area. This is due to a lesser amount
of instability in place across the region. Water vapor imagery
clearly shows the closed low spinning across central Kansas with the
surface low across the confluence of Missouri/Iowa/Kansas/Nebraska.
A cold front in association with this low is located across western
Arkansas down across the ArkLaTex region and into the Texas Hill
Country. Ahead of this, as noted, were the showers and storms moving
into the eastern portions of Louisiana and Arkansas.

For today, this line of showers and storms will continue to push
east into and through the forecast area. Model guidance, especially
hi-res guidance, continues to show that this activity will remain
sub-severe as it moves through. Much of the hi-res CAM guidance
doesn`t show much of an impressive line moving through east of I-55.
Given the time of day this will be moving through across western
portions of the area, expect that much of the activity will remain
just in the form of sub-severe showers and some thunderstorms.
Global models continue to indicate that the better instability will
occur across the far eastern portions of my forecast area and
beyond, with nearing 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and the better influx of
higher dewpoints. However, it is not completely out of the question
that as the line nears the eastern border of my CWA, there could be
a few strong to isolated severe storms given the fact that there is
ample wind shear available(with deep layer shear depicted to be
around 50kts and lower level shear around 20-30kts). Will make
adjustments to the current marginal risk area in the HWO and

Showers and storms should be exiting the east through early
afternoon with clearing skies to follow. Highs today should reach
into the the lower 60s in the Delta to the lower 70s in the Pine
Belt. As the upper system starts to pull off to the east, high
pressure at the surface will move in this evening. Overnight lows
will drop into the upper 30s to around 40. /28/

Tuesday through next Sunday:

Expect dry conditions during the mid to late week along with
seasonal temperatures as zonal flow aloft helps to ensure there are
no temperature extremes. Strong surface high pressure and dry air
will make for sunny days and clear nights that will allow lows to
fall below freezing, especially Wednesday night when the surface
high will be centered over the forecast area helping to create
ideal nocturnal cooling conditions.

Global models are in good agreement on the passage of a significant
polar stream shortwave trough this coming weekend. While rain will
almost surely accompany the frontal passage over the ArkLaMiss
region, a subtropical stream wave moving across the Gulf of Mexico
complicates the QPF pattern as it supports heavy convective rainfall
off the central Gulf coast.  Such a convective complex would tend to
intercept better moisture/instability before it can interact with
the primary front, so will continue to leave out the mention of
thunder in the explicit forecast. It looks like the front should
pass through the region Saturday with seasonably cool temperatures
and dry weather to follow for Sunday. /EC/


Jackson       69  38  58  33 /  16   3   0   0
Meridian      70  39  57  31 /  63   7   0   0
Vicksburg     68  38  59  32 /   9   2   0   0
Hattiesburg   72  40  60  34 /  70   4   0   0
Natchez       68  39  58  33 /  11   2   0   0
Greenville    62  36  54  32 /   8   2   0   0
Greenwood     65  36  54  30 /  11   3   0   0





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