Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 262102
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
402 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Thursday morning...

A large upper trough and closed low located over the midwest/Great
Lakes region is helping to push a cold front through the CWA this
afternoon. This front is currently located along the I-20 corridor.
Moisture pooling ahead of the front has resulted in low to mid 70s
dewpoints with temps in the low to mid 90s along and south of I-20.
These well above average temps have been enough to already break
another daily high for Meridian, but the good news is that today will
be the last day of such anomalously warm temps. In terms of
convection, the best coverage is currently along and east of the HWY
25 corridor where the best moisture and instability are located. A
few thousand Joules of SBCAPE have been realized this afternoon
across this area, however weak lapse rates and forcing have kept
storms sub-severe, but an isolated strong storm or two can`t be ruled
out. For tonight, the cold front will continue pushing through the
CWA and will be located across the HWY 84 corridor. Drier air will
filter in behind the front along and north of I-20 and will bring
much cooler overnight lows with temps expected to be in the low to
mid 60s. On Tue, the front will still be lingering across our far SE
counties, so a few isolated showers and storms can`t be ruled out.
Daytime highs will be the coolest in the NW with highs only in the
low 80s with mid 80s elsewhere. Tue evening will be prime for
radiational cooling with clear skies and dry conditions allowing
overnight lows to dip into the low to mid 50s across the majority of
the area.

On Wed, another northern stream closed upper low is progged to drop
south into the Great Lakes region by Thursday morning. This will help
to drive a second reinforcing cold front into the area Thur morning
that will bring in even cooler temps aloft and more drier air. Temps
on Wed will be warm ahead of the boundary in the mid to upper 80s,
but thankfully not as hot as what we have been seeing the past few
days. Overnight lows Wed evening will be a little trickier as the
models show a band of moisture pooling ahead of the boundary that
could limit the degree of cooling before daybreak. However, another
evening of mid to upper 50s lows will be instore area wide. Some fire
weather issues can`t be ruled out in north Mississippi Tuesday and
areawide Wednesday due to the anomalous dry air in the area but
winds should be lighter on Wednesday which could limit enhanced fire
weather danger. /TW/

.LONG TERM...

Thursday through Monday....

The ArkLaMiss will experience a more Fall-like weather pattern which
is more typical of late September/early October than what we`ve been
experiencing over the last few weeks. Long term models place an
upper level closed low south of the Great Lakes by mid week. This
system will continuously pull cool, dry continental air into the
region from Canada. High temperatures Thursday and Friday have
trended cooler with highs below 80 across the majority of the CWA
thanks to much cooler temps aloft behind the cold front. Temps
through the weekend will creep back into the low 80s with dewpoints
mainly in the 50s. Dry air and clear skies at night will lead to a
significant diurnal curve throughout the extended period. Lows will
fall into the 50s for the first time since May with some areas
possibly reaching the upper 40s where radiational cooling is
maximized. Weak pressure gradient forcing will result in light winds
throughout the long term lessening the fire weather risk. Weak upper
ridging will begin to set up late in the weekend as the closed low
weakens and moves further east. /TW/JPM3/

&&

.AVIATION...A cold front dropping southeast through the region
this afternoon and tonight, will continue to result in a mix of
MVFR/VFR flight categories at TAF sites.  Degraded categories will
be as a result of low clouds and an occasional decrease in
visibility from convection on station. Winds ahead of the front will
be variable. However, behind the front, winds will become northerly
around 10 knots and gusting to around 17 knots at times. Winds will
remain northerly overnight, but they will subside a bit during the
evening hours. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  84  58  85 /  20   6   5   3
Meridian      67  85  57  87 /  30  12   9   3
Vicksburg     64  82  54  87 /  13   5   4   3
Hattiesburg   70  86  61  87 /  30  26  11   3
Natchez       64  83  57  85 /  20   9   6   1
Greenville    61  80  55  87 /  10   4   2   3
Greenwood     61  82  53  86 /  11   4   3   3

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

TW/19


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