Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 011216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
715 AM OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF UNDER THE
STRATUS. SO HAVE ADDED THIS FEATURE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
FORECAST./17/


./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...448 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ZONAL TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST 00Z RAOB SHOWS
DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH 1.37 INCH PW VALUES ON
KJAN...AND JUST UNDER AN INCH ON KLZK. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH WITH 1.68 INCH PW VALUES NOTED ON KLIX 00Z SOUNDING AND
1.84 INCHES ON KLCH. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LOWER
60S/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT SHOULD SHIFT MORE
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL
MAKE A RETURN BACK TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH...NEAR 1.8
INCHES ALONG I-20 AND EVEN AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES IN THE DELTA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING(WITH HIGHS
AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) WILL COMBINE
WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO CREATE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE EAST...BEING LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHILE OUR REGION CONTINUES TO MOISTEN
AND WARM AHEAD OF THIS AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY. WE WILL SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN ACTIVITY TOO AS HEATING COMBINES WITH THIS MOIST AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AS THE FRONT NEARS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA. MODELS SHOW THAT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THIS AREA.
30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH ML CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1300 J/KG. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
JUST A LITTLE SINCE LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS AND THIS COULD BE COMING
THROUGH MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT THAN THE EVENING. EITHER
WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN
THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. /28/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN MS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIMINISHED GIVEN WEAKER FORCING AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL FOR THE ARKLAMISS.

THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 70 DEG F OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MS SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL MS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE GUIDANCE SEEMS AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE LOWS...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS/DRY SOILS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THE GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CLOSE. QUICK MODERATION OF THE DRY,
COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
STILL CAN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING/VIS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
AT KMEI/KHBG 10-14Z. FOLLOWING THIS...ALL SITES WILL RESUME VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISO TO SCT TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
I-55 AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD REDUCE CATEGORIES BRIEFLY.
/28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  71  89  69 /  33  27  45  81
MERIDIAN      90  68  92  72 /  10  21  39  67
VICKSBURG     92  71  89  69 /  46  20  43  83
HATTIESBURG   90  69  90  73 /  30  26  48  52
NATCHEZ       88  73  87  70 /  57  20  48  81
GREENVILLE    92  69  90  71 /  33  23  37  91
GREENWOOD     91  69  91  70 /  20  27  42  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

28/EC/







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