Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 242019 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
215 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE... ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED A BROAD
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WHICH WAS PROVIDING BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION.
READINGS AT AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...301 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A DRY COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE
CWA TODAY.

9Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CWA FROM THE
WEST AND ABOUT TO CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
THE FRONT TO REACH THE I-55 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE BY MID MORNING...AND THE PINE BELT BY AROUND NOON.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING WHEN THE KJAN 12Z OBSERVED PWAT WAS 1.48
IN...PWATS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND A HALF INCH AS MUCH DRIER AIR HAS
FILTERED IN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL SUPPRESS PRECIP
POTENTIAL AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER A SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN DECK OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON THE PROGRESS OF
THE FRONT. TRENDED BELOW MOS TOWARD RAW TEMP GUIDANCE FOR AREAS THAT
I BELIEVE WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...TOOK A MOS BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME SHELTERED AREAS POTENTIALLY DROPPING
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE DIGS QUITE FAR TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH...BARRING DISRUPTIVE CLOUD
COVER...WOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. /DL/

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...QUIET WEATHER IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MY NORTH.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER
PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING.

THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF US ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTER BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.  MOISTURE WILL
SUBTLY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT.  A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
SINK SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY HANG-UP OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.  THIS COULD BRING SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...A BROKEN BAND OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 2-3KFT RESULTING IN MVFR
CEILINGS WAS BEING OBSERVED AT 16Z OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MS.
THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY 19Z. AFTER 19Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AREAWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. /DL/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       61  36  57  35 /   6   3   5   5
MERIDIAN      61  35  57  35 /   7   4   6   9
VICKSBURG     61  36  61  36 /   5   3   4   2
HATTIESBURG   64  39  58  37 /   6   3   7  17
NATCHEZ       60  37  58  37 /   4   3   5   4
GREENVILLE    58  35  55  34 /   6   3   4   2
GREENWOOD     58  34  55  34 /   9   3   4   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/DL/19









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