Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 291517 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1016 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...No major adjustments are planned for today`s forecast.
Mostly sunny conditions prevail across the CWA this morning, with
temps already rising into the low/mid 80s at many sites. CAM
guidance continues to suggest the potential for isolated
showers/storms along the periphery of the CWA this afternoon, and
this is already handled in the going forecast. Did tweak temps up a
tad in a few spots and adjusted hourly temp/dp/wind based on current
trends. Updated grids/text products have already shipped. /DL/


.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all
sites through much of the period. Patchy areas of fog may return
once again to TAF sites Monday morning. Winds will become west to
northwest at 4-8 KTS this afternoon and become light for tonight./17/


.DISCUSSION... /Issued at 430 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
Short Term...Today through Monday Night...High pressure ridging
aloft running from the Gulf of Mexico north into the Lower
Mississippi Valley will coincide with general anticyclonic flow in
the atmospheric low levels in the vicinity to bring mainly dry
conditions and partly cloudy skies through the short term period.
Meanwhile, the continuing slow trend toward summer-like conditions
will persist with highs near (or touching) 90 degrees this afternoon
and perhaps a degree or two warmer tomorrow. Humidity will not yet
be oppressive, but should be enough to yield heat indices a few
degrees more than the actual temps...certainly enough to result in
sweating when considering breezes will be in shorter supply than the
past few afternoons.

Building surface-based instability this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon could certainly be enough to generate an isolated
thunderstorm or two, but with forcing and flow quite weak the
chances for any one spot getting rain is quite low. The upper level
ridge over the region will begin to break down a bit by late Monday
into Monday night and by then there is a slight prospect of
convection developing in a better juxtaposition of ingredients
upstream to make it downstream into my western zones before
dissipating. Regardless, the potential for hazardous weather through
Monday is too low to considering mentioning in the HWO and
graphics at present. /BB/

Long Term...Tuesday through Saturday Night...Weak upper ridging
will prevail across the area on Tuesday with isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms with highs around 90. The upper ridge will
weaken over the area on Wednesday as an upper trough deepens to our
west. This combined with an increase in moisture with PWATS ranging
from 1.5 to 1.7 inches, will allow for an increase in thunderstorms
across the area, with the best chances in the west.

The upper trough will drag a weak cold front into the delta by
Thursday afternoon with more widespread showers and thunderstorms
anticipated on Thursday across much of the area. The GFS/ECMWF are
both trying to cut off a low to our southwest on Friday and both the
models have differing scenarios with the movement of this low as we
get into the weekend. With both solutions though, it looks like the
chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday
night with cooler temperatures./15/


.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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