Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 290924
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY
THURSDAY RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS HAD A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WAS MOVING EAST AND A SECOND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING BUT IT SHOULD HELP
PROLONG CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. LOCAL RADARS WERE CURRENTLY SILENT OVER OUR CWA
BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. BY SATURDAY PWATS OVER THE WHOLE CWA WILL BE
BACK UP AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS. THAT SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND HELP SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. /22/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SOME
UNCERTAINTY IS AGAIN CREEPING INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS SHIFT
DUE TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN MODEL RUN COMING WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKE ON THE TROUGH COMING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
SUNDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS WAS STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS
TROUGH ENERGY CUTTING OFF OVER TOP OF OUR REGION AND SWIRLING
OVERHEAD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THIS SOLUTION
BUT THE MENTIONED EURO IDEA REDUCES CONFIDENCE AND SUGGESTS SOME
CHANCE THAT PROLONGED ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES MIGHT SHIFT EAST OF
OUR REGION FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.

BUT AT LEAST THESE UNCERTAINTIES WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNDAY TO SHOW UP
IN THE MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON) IS PRETTY HIGH. WE DEBATED THROWING IN
MENTION OF LIMITED SEVERE STORM AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE HWO
FOR SUNDAY...BUT IN THE END WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF A BIT LONGER
SINCE THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION STILL WEAKENS WIND SHEAR AND GULF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT QUITE A BIT AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM SHIFT EAST OUT
OF THE PLAINS. OF COURSE HIGH INSTABILITY CAN YIELD SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITHOUT REQUIRING MUCH WIND SHEAR...BUT IN THIS CASE MODEST LAPSE
RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR MORNING TO MIDDAY CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. OF COURSE IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR SOME GUSTY STORMS TO BE ABOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR
A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO PICK UP ONE TO INCHES OF RAINFALL...SO
PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE HEART OF THE
REGION TO KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS GOING IN SOME LOCATIONS WELL
INTO THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY REPOSITIONING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED AXES OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD FUEL THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCTION EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. SOME STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY
PERSIST BACK WEST INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AS WELL ON MONDAY...BUT
THIS PROSPECT COULD POTENTIALLY CHANGE IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH
ITS LATEST PROGRESSIVE TAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVEMENT.

THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BE IMPACTED A GREAT
DEAL IF THIS TROUGH IS INDEED PROGRESSIVE AND CUTS OFF FROM THE JET-
LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS TO OUR EAST. IN THAT CASE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES COULD BE MUCH MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY REPRESENTS (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55) WHILE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MAY TREND WARMER. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...THE CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTION OF TROUGH
ENERGY CUTTING OFF OVERHEAD STILL ARGUES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. HOPEFULLY BY THIS TIME TOMORROW
MODEL CONSENSUS WILL STRENGTHEN REGARDING SOLUTIONS FOR OUR REGION
OVER THIS TIME FRAME. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT 09Z AND IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
BY 15Z. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 15Z UNTIL ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE
OF TSTMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN. GREATER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED EAST
OF THE MS RIVER THIS AFTN THEN FOCUS OVER THE NW PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS EVNG. IFR CIGS WL BE PSBL AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER
08Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  68  85  67 /  45  36  58  31
MERIDIAN      85  66  86  65 /  33  23  37  24
VICKSBURG     85  69  84  67 /  47  48  63  41
HATTIESBURG   86  67  88  67 /  42  23  36  18
NATCHEZ       86  68  83  67 /  49  38  59  36
GREENVILLE    85  70  83  68 /  59  53  65  59
GREENWOOD     85  69  83  67 /  40  49  63  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/22


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