Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 210548 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
148 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Issued at 148 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

The forecast remains on track. Made some minor temperature
adjustments based on the rate of cooling thus far across the
area. The river valley fog is expanding more so now, and this
will continue through dawn.

UPDATE Issued at 1041 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

Forecast is on track for a quiet but potentially foggy night
ahead. Airport obs have not shown any visibility restrictions
below 7 miles yet. However, many obs are at saturation, and the
first indications of valley fog are starting to show up on the RGB
microphysics satellite channel. The fog will continue to expand
during the night.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 350 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

Current radar mosaic is showing isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the region with slightly better coverage
across central portions of the Commonwealth. Expect this activity
will continue for a few more hours before waning around sunset.

Models are in good agreement through the short term. Additional
short wave energy will drop down into the area tomorrow on the
south side of a developing mid/upper level ridge. This ridge will
nose its way northeastward through the period, expanding from the
southern plains into the mid Mississippi Valley overnight, and
then into the Great Lakes by end of the day Thursday.

Sensible weather will see another night with fog. However, while
the fog will be locally dense in places expectations are that the
overall coverage and intensity should not be quite as bad as last
night. With short wave energy riding along the southeastern edge
of the ridge Thursday, can not rule out another day of isolated
convection across the area tomorrow, similar to the last couple
of afternoons. Temperatures will continue to run about 5 degrees
above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

The period will be controlled by upper level ridging moving across
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and surface high nosing south from
time to time. This well established ridge will keep the tropical
systems well away from the Ohio Valley. The only issue will be the
potential for mainly valley fog and slight ridge valley
temperature splits in the morning. However, towards the end of the
long term period we do see signs of the eastern lower 48 ridge
breaking down, and this will allow for slightly cooler afternoon
temperatures (closer to average for this time of year) and
lowering heights.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)

LIFR or worse fog will develop across mainly the river valleys
through dawn. This will hit hardest at SYM, SME and LOZ, with SJS
and JKL likely seeing more temporary lower restrictions between 10
and 12z. The fog will burn off between 12 and 14z, with scattered
cumulus forming in the 3 to 5k feet agl range during the day. A
few showers may dot the area, but these look too isolated to
include any mention for now. Winds will be light and variable
through the period.




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