Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AND A MEANDERING CUT OFF UPPER LOW. THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR AUGUSTA IN FORECAST TO DRIFT DUE NORTH AND
BE LOCATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT
AN IN INVERTER TROUGH IN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA AND
MAY RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING SOME WARMING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH BOTH THE LOW AND
HIGHS GRADUALLY RISING. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THE
TEMPERATURES AND THEN HAD TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
STRONG OVER THE REGION...PROVIDING A PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL
WEATHER. A GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN MAY ARRIVE SOMETIME EARLY TO THE MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS SOME KIND OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PUSHES NORTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY PUSHED
BACK ANY POPS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT
EVEN LATER THAN THIS...BUT OPTING FOR A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND ONLY
PUSH IT BACK ONE PERIOD AT A TIME. REGARDLESS...ANY SYSTEM THAT
TRACKS NORTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY KEEP
US IN SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW...SO INITIALLY THERE IS GOING
TO BE LOTS OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PRIOR TO ANY PRECIPITATION.
THUS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY...UNTIL FLOW CAN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE ENTIRE AREA IS VFR ONCE AGAIN AS THE FOG WAS HARDER TO BURN OFF
IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE AIR IS FAIRLY DRY
OVER THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT.
LOOKING MAINLY AT THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...THE MOST LIKELY
STATION TO GO TO IFR OR BELOW IS SJS. THE LOW FORECAST FOR LOZ WILL
BE NEAR THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE...SO PUT SOME MVFR MIST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF STATIONS SHOULD STAY VFR. THE
VALLEYS WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND WILL SEE VLIFR
CONDITIONS. ALL THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AND BE
BACK TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ





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