Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 290829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
329 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL FEATURE MILDER WEATHER AND SLOWLY INCREASING
RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO RETREAT THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A DECK OF 4-6KFT...CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
KENTUCKY TOWARDS MIDDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF THESE CLOUDS. NOT SURE WE WILL SUSTAIN THE CLOUD COVER
TODAY...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO GET
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE ON TOP OF THE
CURRENT TRENDS...SO FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY FOR TH FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. BASICALLY LOOKS LIKE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY STAY
AROUND 50 WITH THE CLOUDS TOWARDS MIDDAY SLOWING DOWN THE RISE.

BY TONIGHT...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMPS UP ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. OUR
NORTHERN ZONES CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE EDGE OF THIS EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND THUS...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS
WITH BASICALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH. ALSO WENT WITH A BUFFER
ZONE OF A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THERE ARE NO REAL
SHIFTS IN THE WEATHER REGIME. IF ANYTHING...THE THREAT OF
DRIZZLE/RAIN MIGHT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY KEEP
MOST OF OUR WEEKEND MAINLY DRY. CLOUDS ARE STILL VERY MUCH A QUESTION
MARK FOR SUNDAY...WITH A MODEL BLEND PROVIDING A NICE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS AT THE MOMENT...BUT IF RAIN CHANCES
RETREAT NORTHWARD...CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO RETREAT...PROVIDING MORE
POTENTIAL FOR SUN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER. REGARDLESS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND WARMER ON SUNDAY AND HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF MOS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE RATHER
ACTIVE AS A ZONAL FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN STATES EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY NOW SURGING SOUTH THROUGH MONTANA WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A THREAT FOR A LITTLE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MODIFY BUT MEANDER ABOUT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES JUST ABOUT
EACH DAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND A SHALLOW MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD
INTO EAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY
MORNING...AND THEN FALL DURING THE DAY. FORTUNATELY IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR SOUTH BY THE
TIME THE COLDER AIR MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WILL LIKELY MIX WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS EASE
BELOW FREEZING OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS CHANCE OF A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPS
WARM BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ENDING THE WINTRY PRECIP THREAT
BY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX APPEARS TO
ONLY MAKE IT SOUTHWARD TO A JACKSON TO PIKEVILLE LINE AND ANY SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH...PERIODIC BOUTS OF PRECIP APPEAR LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST. FOR NOW...TEMPS SUPPORT
ALL RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE PERIODIC
ARCTIC INTRUSIONS TO OUR NORTH MAY NOT BE HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS
SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS NOT GREAT BEYOND MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BEST THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS CREEPING INTO THE AREA WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT BRINGS IN SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO KEEP EVERYTHING VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL BRING BACK SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONG INVERSIONS SET UP BOTH NIGHTS...WITH
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY...A COMPROMISED SOLUTION
WOULD STILL YIELD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 2O TO 30 MPH. I
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS EVEN A BIT HIGHER THAN
THIS. THIS WINDS SHOULD PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN THIS EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS



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