Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231706
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
106 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 106 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

Showers associated with a warm front continue to push into central
Kentucky. Latest hi-res model guidance has this activity
continuing to fall apart as it encounters the dry air to the east.
However, based on latest trends, its increasingly likely we will
see some shower activity slip into our far southwest counties by
late this afternoon and evening. Thus, have tossed in some rain
chances in the Cumberland Plateau. This activity should move on
through and diminish by 00z, but a quick few hundredths of
rainfall will be possible. Meanwhile, the rest of eastern Kentucky
remains mild and dry with RH`s dropping to between 25 and 30
percent presently. We should bottom out slightly lower this
afternoon, helping to eat away at the rain trying to move towards
us.

UPDATE Issued at 1057 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

Only a few high clouds drifting across the area and this will be
the case through most of the day. Thus, only change was to
decrease cloud cover. Dry air still entrenched across the area
will keep dewpoints down today leading to a very dry afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 647 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

GOES 16 IR showing upstream high clouds will stream into the
region. However, obs under this deck are mostly indicating a more
scattered deck. MOst portions of the region remain under mostly
clear skies. No major changes needed this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

Morning surface analysis shows an area of surface high pressure
remains anchored across Lake Erie and we remain in the northeast
flow this morning. This area of surface high pressure will eject
south and east today with winds veering to the south through the
day. However, the concern will be how much recovery can we see in
the far east in terms of dewpoint. Right now think that dewpoints
will be slow to recover and consequently RH will remain low
particularly in the east. While this could lead to some wildfire
issues given the aforementioned RH and likely dry fuels the winds
will remain lighter in general. Given the veering winds to the
south through the day, and height rises as upper level ridge
shifts east it will lead to warming trend. Temperatures this
afternoon are expected to climb into the lower 60s.

Morning surface analysis also revealed a warm front resides
southwest of the region in the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
This will lift north tonight and cross the region. Thus mid to
high clouds will be on the increase through the day into tonight,
but particularly in the northern portions of the CWA. Overall
think there will be too much in the way of subsidence to see
anything in terms of precip with the front. This will mainly usher
in warm and moist airmass across the region. That said,
temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 60s to lower
70s. The soundings also indicate some decent mixing as LLJ will be
on the increase ahead of an approaching synoptic system in the
Central Plains. Therefore, did opt to increase wind gusts in the
afternoon to around 15 to 20 mph mainly in the Lake Cumberland and
Bluegrass region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

After a dry start, most of the period looks unsettled. Ridging at
the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS on Friday evening
will give way to a stacked low pressure system over the southern
plains, which is forecast to weaken and move slowly northeast to IN
by Sunday evening. A stream of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico
coupled with the approaching upper level system should bring rain,
with the greatest probability Saturday night into Sunday. Weak
instability should also be present, and justifies including a slight
chance of thunderstorms. As the disintegrating system passes to our
north, its cold front is expected to dissolve and leave us without a
change in air mass. Models show another weakening low pressure
system coming out of the southern plains early in the work week and
moving up the Ohio Valley. This time around, cold frontal passage is
expected to occur, accompanied by an increase in the POP for Monday
night into Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF part ways at this point. The
ECMWF stalls the front nearby, while the GFS takes it all the way to
the Gulf Coast. The compromise forecast which is being used will
likely eventually get changed once it becomes more clear which
scenario will be closer to reality.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

Despite high pressure shifting east, VFR conditions will dominate
the next 24 to 36 hours. The impact of the high shifting east will
be slightly stronger winds, generally 5 to 10 mph this afternoon,
then closer to 10 mph for Friday afternoon. Winds should diminish
during the overnight hours as the inversion should be able to set
up.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DJ



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