Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 050307
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1107 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED LATE THIS EVENING.
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH
IN REALITY THE POP IS PROBABLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUE TO BE ON AN OVERALL DECLINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...CONVECTION
WILL SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND. HOWEVER...IT WILL HOLD ON
LONG ENOUGH TO BRING PRECIP TO SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR NORTH...AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING. SOME VERY
ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FURTHER SOUTH...BUT COVERAGE
IS SO SLIGHT THAT IT HARDLY WARRANTS A 20 PERCENT POP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DOT
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
DYING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GET TALL
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
HWO.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN
A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS AND WINDS SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE EAST AND MAYBE EVEN A BIT SOUTHEAST BY DAWN...WOULD
EXPECT IT TO BE A BIT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
COVERAGE...WHICH IN GENERAL HAS BEEN A BIT OVERDONE IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS...WHILE LIGHT...WILL HAVE
VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG PRETTY RESTRICTED TO
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...AND ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE OF A
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT...ALTHOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL DIFFER WITHIN THE 5
DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH
BUILDING TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON
SUNDAY. THE RESULTING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARMING...WHICH WOULD
EFFECTIVELY DRY OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MOST
OR ALL OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA AGREE ON
THIS. THIS WAS THE REASONING BEHIND REMOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOISTEN UP
ONCE AGAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS THE
REGION. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RIDING UP AND OVER THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SPOTS MAY
EVEN HIT 90. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO
MORE NORMAL VALUES.  WE COULD EVEN SEE A DRY AND COOL ENOUGH AIR
MASS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 TO
BE ACHIEVED. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS VERY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH. THEY COULD BRING VERY
LOCALIZED IFR. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT UNTIL
VALLEY FOG STARTS TO DEVELOP. THE FOG WILL SPREAD AND GROW DEEPER
WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY BRINGING SOME RESTRICTIONS AT TAF SITES.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LEAVE VFR. THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH
HEATING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN BRIEF LOCALIZED
IFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.