Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 291538
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1038 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Current mild and dry forecast is on target. Made minor adjustments
to hourly first period grids to bring them better in line with
obs/trends. Updated PFM already sent.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 712 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR wx all taf lctns this am. VFR wx to hold thru the day.
Another cold front is expected to move through to the coast
by the afternoon with winds picking up behind the front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV satellite imagery this morning shows the cut off upper level
low currently centered over the Ohio River Valley and drifting
southward. At the surface, a cold front extends from the low
across the Southeast through the LA/AR border to the Red River in
TX and OK. The cold front is forecast to move through the area and
clear the coastal waters late tonight. The frontal passage is
expected to be dry with the 00Z LCH sounding sampling below normal
PW values and satellite derived PW values indicating even drier
air having been advected into the region overnight. High pressure
behind the front will result in some of the coolest temperatures
in several months for the weekend.

Height rises are forecast to begin late Saturday as the cut off
low is lifted to the northeast. This will result in temperatures
slightly increasing for the start of next week. Long term model
guidance has slowed the advance of the next 500 hPa longwave
trough which is now forecast to approach the region late
Wednesday. Therefore,lowered PoPs for the end of the forecast
Wednesday and extended into Thursday. Otherwise, only made minor
changes to the previous forecast.

MARINE...
A dry surface cold front will move across the northwest Gulf of
Mexico through the day today. Behind the front, moderate offshore
flow will occur tonight with sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 25 knots. Small craft should exercise caution
tonight through Friday morning. Light offshore flow will return
for Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  54  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  84  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  83  57  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  86  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION from 6 PM CDT this evening through
     Friday morning for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.