Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 300124
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
824 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. WILL LEAVE A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FCST OVER THAT AREA AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS SINCE THE
EVENING SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD MOISTURE UP TO 12K FEET.
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOOKING FOR STORMS ENDING OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH ALL SITES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS AND A
BIT OF FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING OVER THE N
GULF...WITH WEAK NE FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE REGION. ALOFT...FILLING
SHORTWAVE OVER LA/MS STILL GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER...ALONG
WITH SCT SHRA OVER C AND SC LA. FOR THIS...CONTINUING 30% THRU
THIS AFTERNOON OVER C AND S LA...CLOSER TO 20% FOR SE TX.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WASH OUT AND MOVE
NORTH THRU TUE AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF. WILL SEE INTERMITTENT
DISTURBANCES THRU THU...WHICH WILL BE LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHRA/ISO TSRA THRU THIS PERIOD.
GRADUALLY WARMER MORNING LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLE THRU THIS PERIOD
AS WELL.

BY FRI...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. STILL SOME QUESTION ON LINGERING MOISTURE RE
BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING POPS INTO FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT
EXPECTING MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN...EXPECTING LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SAT MORNING. SUN MORNING EXPECTING
EVEN LOWER TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S N OF I-10...UPPER 50S/NEAR
60 ELSEWHERE. BY MON...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

DML

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY TO THE
NORTH OF AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WASH OUT...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  86  73  85  74 /  10  20  20  30  10
KBPT  73  86  74  86  75 /  10  20  20  20  10
KAEX  68  87  70  86  72 /  10  20  10  20  10
KLFT  72  86  72  86  74 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$







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