Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 171753
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1253 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR flight rules through the day and into the evening hours.
Winds generally less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 928 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

UPDATE...Clear and cool across the region, but temperatures are
warming. Expect near normal temps this afternoon under sunny
skies. This is in line with the previous forecast and no changes
are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
For the 17/12Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
High pressure over the region will continue to provide the area
with a dry northeast flow. Expect VFR conditions to prevail
through the period.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

This morning`s surface analysis indicates a 1028 hPa high pressure
area extending from the Ohio River Valley southwestward into South
Central Texas. The combination of light winds, clear skies, and
low dewpoints have allowed radiational cooling to occur through
the overnight hours resulting in temperatures ranging from the mid
50s near the coast to the upper 40s/low 50s across interior SE
Texas and SW Louisiana. The 00Z KLCH sounding sampled PWAT of
0.40" over the region and dry conditions are expected today thanks
to the lack of deep layer moisture and upper level subsidence.
Diurnal insolation should allow temperatures to climb into the
upper 70s which is slightly below normal for mid October.

The dry conditions are expected to continue through the week as an
upper level ridge builds along the east coast. Temperatures and
dewpoints are expected to gradually increase as the surface high
pressure shifts east of the area and allow for weak return flow to
develop. A 500 hPa trough is then forecast to progress across the
eastern two thirds of the CONUS through the weekend into early
next week. Model guidance over the past 24 hours has been trending
toward a more progressive pattern. PWAT values are expected to
increase to 1.5"+ on Saturday as low level flow becomes
southeasterly. A few pop up showers and thunderstorms could
develop as a result of this increasing deep layer moisture on
Saturday. The 00Z GFS/ECMWF are indicating the potential for deep
convection to develop along a surface cold front extending across
the Southern Plains Saturday afternoon and progress southeast
during the overnight hours and passing through the CWA on Sunday.
Drier and cooler conditions are expected to return by Tuesday as
high pressure ushers in another continental air mass into the
region.

MARINE...

Northeasterly flow will continue gradually decrease through this
morning as high pressure builds over the region. Sustained winds
are expected to generally below 20 knots after 7 AM this morning.
However, they will still be around 15 to 20 knots with higher
gusts into early this afternoon. Therefore, the Small Craft
Advisory will be allowed to expire this morning with Exercise
Caution wording added into the forecast through this afternoon.

The area of high pressure currently over the area will shift
eastward starting on Wednesday resulting in moderate easterly flow
through the end of the week. An approaching upper level trough
will result in onshore flow and the chances for showers and
thunderstorms increasing this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  49  81  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  53  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  54  82  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  55  82  63  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19


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