Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 161206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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