Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 260428
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EAST OF THE REGION
WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THEY STREAM WEST
ACRS THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. OVERALL...FEW
CHANGES TO EARLIER TAF FCST ALTHOUGH ADJUSTED VISBY CONDITIONS AT
LCH TO REFLECT PREVAILING VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...
VERY TYPICAL SUMMER EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AS A FEW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE REGION. THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS ARE
RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND THIS IS WHERE THE MORNING LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO. OTHERWISE... THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD WITH
ONLY LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WHICH MEANS IT
IS GOING TO BE HOT WITH THE HEAT INDEX AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY
MARK.  19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VERY ISLTD CONVECTION ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNSET. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. HAZE NEAR LCH IS KEEPING VISBYS
AROUND 5-6 SM...AND MVFR VISBYS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AS A COMBINATION OF HZ/BR REMAIN ACRS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT AEX AND BPT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LT/VRBL...BECOMING MORE SLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH ISLTD
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY NR THE ACADIANA TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING ALL RAINS OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS HAVE DISSIPATED...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NOTED
INLAND SOUTH OF I-10. LIMITED INLAND CONVECTION FORMING ALONG WEAK
SEABREEZE...AND BEING INHIBITED BY INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THIS OCCURRING WITH EASTERN EXPANSION OF SOUTH CONUS RIDGE BEHIND
EXITING EAST CONUS TROF.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GRIDS...JUST A FRESHENING OF A FEW
ELEMENTS. OVERALL EXPECTING A DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HOLDS OVER THE
AREA CONTINUING TO SQUASH ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
DID HOLD ONTO AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
SEABREEZE. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR JUST
ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DEEP UPPER TROF AGAIN BEING CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. FEATURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SEND YET
ANOTHER COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO INCREASE
SHARPLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
HIGHER POPS THROUGH THIS TIME-FRAME. WHERE BOUNDARY BECOME
PARKED WILL DICTATE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN RESPECTABLE CHANCES.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COOL
FRONT MAY ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  92  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
KBPT  75  92  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
KAEX  73  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  75  92  76  92 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




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