Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 171755
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY
SHROUDED IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DESERT SW. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AS
SFC/LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SERLY...ADVECTING IN MORE GULF
MOISTURE. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER ERN TX IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND SMALL POPS ARE
INSERTED LATE IN THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PUSHING FARTHER
EWD AS WELL AS A SFC WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS LATE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$






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