Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 292345
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
645 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
For the 30/00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Low level jet continues to funnel into the storm system over the
Southern Plains. Therefore, southerly winds sustained around 20
knots with gusts to around 30 knots will persist into the
overnight. These south winds will continue to bring in Gulf
moisture, that will trapped underneath a cap, with mainly MVFR
ceiling also persisting into the overnight, with scattered showers.
Regional radar shows storms coalescing into a line along the I-35
corridor of central Texas ahead of a cold front. This cold front
will accelerate across the region tonight and early Sunday. Tried
to time this front that will likely bring a squall line of storms
based on early trends and hi-res solutions. This will bring the
activity to KBPT between 08-11Z...KLCH 09-12Z...KAEX
10-13Z...KLFT/KARA between 12-15Z. After the line passes, winds
will shift to the northwest, with ceilings and shower activity
gradually ending by late morning into the early afternoon.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Strong and gusty gradient winds will continue through this evening
before decreasing after sunset. However, winds are expected to
remain elevated for areas along and south of I-10 through tomorrow
morning. Therefore, no adjustments to the timing or the area of
the Wind Advisories were made this afternoon.

A cold front is forecast to move through the region resulting in
thunderstorms be likely late tonight and through the day on
Sunday. Sufficient instability and shear indicate that the
thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Given the strong wind
fields in place over the region, the primary threat would be
damaging winds; but, large hail and one or two tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. The main line is expected to be approaching Southeast
Texas around midnight. The primary time for heaviest thunderstorms
from Lake Charles west will be from after midnight through mid
morning Sunday. For areas east of Lake Charles, the main
timeframe for heaviest thunderstorms will be from early Sunday
morning through late Sunday afternoon.

Given the depth of warm cloud layer and PWAT values in excess of
the 90th percentile for this time of year, thunderstorms tonight
and tomorrow will be efficient rainfall producers. However, the
convective line is forecast to be progressive enough to limit the
flooding threat with this system. A widespread one to three inches
of rainfall with locally heavier amounts are expected through
Sunday night.

Drier conditions will be ushered in behind the cold front on
Sunday. The next system will approach the region Wednesday into
Thursday bringing likely rainfall chances again. In addition to
the rainfall, cooler temperatures are expected for the end of the
week into the weekend.

MARINE...

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH 6 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE READINGS THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. IN ADDITION TO
THE STRONG WINDS AND SEAS, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  74  51  80 / 100 100  10   0
LCH  66  76  53  81 / 100  80  10   0
LFT  74  78  56  82 /  40 100  10   0
BPT  64  76  52  81 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ041-042-073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ041-
     052-073-074.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-043>045.

     Wind Advisory until 11 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ052>055.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ215-216.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ215.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ435-450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from Sunday afternoon through late
     Sunday night for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for GMZ430-432.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07



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