Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
000
FXUS64 KLIX 290839
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
339 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...

EARLIER RAINS HAVE COME TO AN END AND THINGS ARE FAIRLY BENIGN
TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE RAIN FREE AND ON THE WARM SIDE AS RIDGING
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL BE IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH SOME AREA PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S. THE BREAK IN THE
RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY WITH RAIN WORKING
INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
BEING A CONCERN...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS
OF MORE CONCERN AT THIS POINT THAN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE
WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMING ON TUESDAY AS THE AXIS
OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER INTO AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRY THINGS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER SPOTTY SO FAR THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT THEM TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
SUNRISE.  EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. ANY CONVECTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH THREAT TO
MENTION IN FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL RAISE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER WESTERN OPEN WATERS FOR
TODAY...AND MAY BE NECESSARY OVER MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  69  85  69 /  10  10  40  70
BTR  86  71  85  70 /  10  20  50  70
ASD  86  71  85  72 /  10  10  20  50
MSY  84  72  84  73 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  85  72  83  71 /  10  10  10  40
PQL  85  69  84  69 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...35



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.