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000
FXUS64 KLIX 081120 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
520 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  14/MM

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CEILINGS
OF 300-400 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL THE
TERMINALS...DROPPING TO 200 FT AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
2-3SM AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY 16Z...POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND
1SM AT TIMES TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL AT 1SM OR LESS
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT KGPT/KHUM. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THUNDER THIS AFTN/EVENING BUT THIS IS
CURRENTLY NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.  14/MM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF HAS BEGUN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE A
SURFACE WAVE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE
OCCURRING WITH KLIX RADAR SHOWING SOME RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TODAY TRANSPORTING DEEPER
MOISTURE (PWS 1.5-1.7 INCHES) OVER TOP OF THE THINNING LAYER OF
COLD AIR NEAR THE SFC. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER...AND SPC
HAS MENTIONED IN THEIR DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
AS FAR NORTH AS THE LA/MS COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BEFORE STALLING AGAIN. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME SFC BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG FOR THE SE HALF AND NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
EXPECT STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL DIMINISH AS WELL AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE STABLE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY THEN
BEGIN PUSHING BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE STEADY OR FALL DUE TO COLD ADVECTION WITH
THIS SECONDARY SURGE. UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY WITH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY DRYING OUT. RAIN CHANCES WILL END
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS PWS DROP TO AROUND AN INCH. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTN/THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL THIS PERIOD WITH THE SFC
HIGH IN PLACE. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND TEXAS FRIDAY AND
MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH (PWS
INCREASING TO 1.8 INCHES). UPPER FLOW BECOMES VERY DIFFLUENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG DYNAMICS HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA.

14/MM

MARINE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AND WINDS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED WITH COLD AIR AND MOVE
BACK OUT INTO THE WATERS AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT WINDS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MAY HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD. WINDS LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTERS IN.  13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  45  54  44 /  90  70  50  50
BTR  46  46  56  46 /  90  70  50  50
ASD  53  53  64  52 /  70  70  40  40
MSY  53  54  64  54 /  70  70  40  40
GPT  57  58  67  54 /  60  60  40  40
PQL  59  60  70  56 /  60  60  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$