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000
FXUS64 KLIX 010103
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
703 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN
MOSS POINT AND INTERSTATE 10. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT AN ALTITUDE OF
100.6K FEET OR 19.1 MILES.

SOUNDING HAS MOISTENED UP A LITTLE BIT...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 0.72 INCHES. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF SATURATION JUST
BELOW 700 MB...WHICH WAS BEING REFLECTED BY AN INCREASE IN
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AT FL095 AT LAUNCH TIME. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BELOW 850 MB...AND WEST ABOVE THAT LEVEL THROUGH
100 MB. PEAK WIND WAS 127 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST AT 38.5K FEET.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 13.2K FEET...WITH -20C LEVEL AT 23K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTS BACKS INTO THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN STEAM WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO WHERE A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING.

THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT
FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEFORE ALL THE
MOISTURE MOVES OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SLEET WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR. THE WORK WEEK WILL END ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. 11

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW TO
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE EASING SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS MINUS THE TIDAL LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK AND BE MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE AT TIMES. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  40  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  20  30  30
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  20  30
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$