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000
FXUS64 KLIX 192113
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
413 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Unsettled air mass in place near the col aloft between ridge axis
running from Texas to north Florida and a trough axis from a long
wave to the north and large TUTT circulation over the east Gulf.
Flow pattern is essentially from the north-northeast for much of
the column allowing for continental heat induced storms to move
into and along axis of deeper low level moisture off the gulf.
Storms have been maintaining steady motions around 15 kt but may
become erratic with outflow interactions the remainder of the
afternoon, including what may become slow movers over the New
Orleans metro area shortly. Outside of rain areas, apparent
temperatures have reached 110-112F ranges but rain cooled areas
drop into the lower 80s. Downburst potential has been rather high
in this environment with some indications on radar of close to 50
kt at times, hence the warnings. Sunday can be a similar situation
with only slow changes to the air mass. The TUTT low will be
moving into the middle Gulf and place the area on the wetter
inflow side, and dragging the col center pretty much over the
forecast area. This will allow for short-lived convection but also
slow moving cells that will tend to be more influenced by
outflows. Temperature forecast is a consensus blend throughout the
forecast package. Monday`s diurnal curve was altered for a
flatter, even 1-2 hours of slightly cooler, temperature trend
during the eclipse passage, but still ample daylight to recover to
max temperatures after eclipse ends. Essentially shaved 2 degrees
for the noon hour, 3-4 degrees for 1 pm, then start recovery after
2 pm to get back on typical diurnal trend.

.LONG TERM...
Main feature will be frontal zone that drops from the north but
only gets so far to place the deep south in a compressional
heating and high moisture content situation for higher than normal
rain chances Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures held closer to
climatological normals. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals through the
forecast period. Any lingering convection this evening should
quickly die off by 02z.  Tomorrow, another round of showers and
thunderstorms should develop in the afternoon hours.  Will add VCTS
wording into the forecast to reflect the risk of convective activity
tomorrow. 32

&&

.MARINE...
A persistence forecast remains in place for the coastal waters. The
seabreeze cycle will dominate the local wind field as a broad ridge
of high pressure remains parked over the northern Gulf of Mexico. As
a result, light and variable winds are expected through the day with
an offshore component in the morning shifting to an onshore
component in the afternoon and evening hours.  Seas will be fairly
calm at 1 to 2 feet through the period.  There will be some
thunderstorm activity each day that will produce locally higher
winds and waves for brief periods of time. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: DSS support for NOHSEP.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =    Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  92  73  91 /  20  30  20  40
BTR  75  92  75  91 /  20  30  10  40
ASD  75  92  75  91 /  10  30  10  30
MSY  77  92  77  90 /  20  30  10  30
GPT  76  91  77  89 /  10  30  10  30
PQL  74  93  75  90 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$