Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 092015
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH VERY MOIST...UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND ENTER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON MAINLY THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH INTO THE GULF ON FRIDAY AND DISSIPATE AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AT 20Z WITH MOST
OF THE STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 12. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
TSRA FROM KMCB...KBTR AND KHDC. SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMOVE IT FROM
KASD WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND KGPT SHORTLY AFTER THAT. AREAS
THAT GET STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BREAK OUT BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY. WILL
HOLD MENTION OF TSRA OUT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEK.
WIND SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET IN
THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT OR LESS IN THE TIDAL LAKES.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  86  71  90 /  40  50  30  30
BTR  75  88  73  92 /  30  60  30  40
ASD  75  88  74  92 /  40  60  30  30
MSY  77  88  76  91 /  40  70  30  40
GPT  78  90  75  94 /  40  70  30  30
PQL  73  86  72  91 /  40  70  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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