Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 220954
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
354 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Fog developed over Lake Pontchartrain but elsewhere winds and
gentle lift has caused the stratus deck to remain at 500-800ft.
A cold front located in east Texas this morning will continue
moving east with sh/ts out ahead of the boundary. An area of
convective development should begin to develop over then northern
gulf this morning which will begin to moisture starve the
southern end of the front. This should help in the lowering of
severe chances with exception to the northern gulf. But
parameters for a severe thunderstorm, although weak, will remain
and a marginal risk also remains for the eastern portion of the
area. If any thunderstorm is capable of taking advantage of these
variables, then an isolated severe would still be possible even
outside the marginal risk area. The actual cold front, will take
from noon at Baton Rouge until just after dark to reach
Pascagoula. Once the front moves through, dry dew pt air will move
in bringing cool dry conditions and mostly clear skies through
Thursday with a day or two of cirrus.

.LONG TERM...
Extended was left as is since model agreement is not occurring.
The general pattern is for a sfc low to develop Friday into
Saturday and move toward the area. Models are beginning to hint
that the low will couple with the front as it approaches the
northern gulf coast and kick out to the northeast giving somewhat
lower land impacts but keeping marine impacts fairly high. Again,
it will only take a slight shift of this low back to the west to
cause the extended portion of this forecast to become more
problematic. For this reason, we have left the extended with
likely sh/ts chances for land areas by the end of the week but
kept most of the strongest weather near the coast and offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds have remained elevated this morning aiding in the lack of fog
development. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a rapidly
approching cold front will pass through the area from east to west
beginning by around 12Z and last through late afternoon well east. A
few showers are beginning to develop out ahead of the main line and
could impact KMCB and KBTR a bit sooner. By this evening, all rain
will have moved to the east of the area.

.MARINE...

Fog over the area lakes has developed overnight and will continue to
impact these areas through the mid-morning hours. An approaching
cold front will bring a stretch of strong northerly winds over the
next couple of days. By Thursday, high pressure will slide east with
the associated ridge axis stretching to east Texas. As a result,
winds will become east to southeast Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  40  58  35 /  90   0   0   0
BTR  71  41  60  36 /  80   0   0   0
ASD  71  43  60  38 /  70  10   0   0
MSY  72  46  59  42 /  70   0   0   0
GPT  69  45  60  39 /  60  10   0   0
PQL  70  45  61  37 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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