National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KLKN 092350
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
350 PM PST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...THE COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT HAS IMPACTED THE GREAT
BASIN OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE
BEGINNING TO MODERATE BY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
BASINS OF CENTRAL NEVADA. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL CLIP NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA BY FRIDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. 1036MB SURFACE HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH THE SNOW COVER TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A
BIT WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AS 700MB TEMPS WARM ALOFT...BUT
WILL STILL RUN -5 TO -15F TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ALOFT TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BEFORE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE ACROSS THE MID-SLOPES AND HIGHER
BASIN LOCATIONS BEGINNING TOMORROW...BUT LOWER VALLEYS AND BASINS
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MIXING OUT AS FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BELOW 6K...AND BE A
LITTLE WARMER ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS 500MB MOISTURE STREAMS OVER
THE AREA...THIS COULD HELP MODERATE LOW TEMPS A BIT AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS LIMITED. DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND 700MB TEMPS WARM TO 0C ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MUCH WARMER READINGS...BUT WITH FRESH
SNOW PACK...LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW...AND NEAR WINTER SOLSTICE SUN
ANGLE FEEL VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL TRAP IN THE COLD AIR. FELT
GUIDANCE WAS WAY TO HIGH ON TEMPERATURES FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS...AS
THE PROBABILITY OF COLD AIR NOT MIXING OUT IS VERY HIGH. STILL
TRENDED TEMPS UP A BIT ACROSS THE VALLEYS COMPARED TO TUESDAY BUT
WASN`T AS OPTIMISTIC AS THE MODELS. THE HIGHER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA AND MID-SLOPES WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER 20S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF THE
SAME WITH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION GAME...BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH COULD START TO SCOUR OUT THE
COLD AIR A BIT MORE. CONFIDENCE IS USUAL LOW IN THESE TYPE OF
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REGIMES...SO WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS
MATERIALIZE THIS WEEK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MORE WINTER WEATHER
WILL BE ON TAP THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE EC AND THE GFS BRING BRING
A PACIFIC IMPULSE INTO OREGON ON 00Z FRIDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. PWS ARE A TAD BIT ANEMIC OVER THE
SILVER STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FLURRY.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RUBIES...SOUTH OF I-80 WILL
REMAIN DRY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL COUPLED WITH GOOD MIXING...PUTTING THE KIBOSH ON THE BRUTALLY
FRIGID TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH FOR
THE ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

95/97/97