Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 012135
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY...EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF RAIN. MORE WET WEATHER
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY...HOWEVER AS TROUGH ENERGY MOVES IN
ALONG THE WEST COAST...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL FOCUS OVER WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPANDS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE LANDER AND
EUREKA COUNTIES...AS WELL AS WESTERN ELKO COUNTY UP TO THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT...THEN
RISE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH MONDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
INCREASED WINDS MID-WEEK AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES
NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
REGARDING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS ITS CLOSES AND
DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NEVADA LATER THIS WEEK.

INITIALLY THE APPROACH OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CREATE A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING SO GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE EVENING. AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND SETTLES
ALONG THE CA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION SHOULD BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE LOW DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CA BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE BEST COVERAGE DAY
BASED CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL ALSO PRODUCE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUDS COVER.

BY SATURDAY THE ECMWF IS HANGING THE LOW UP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE CORE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. EITHER
SOLUTION WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST PCPN WOULD BE IN
DOUBT. THE CORE OF THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER EAST SUNDAY. THERE ARE
MORE SOLUTION DIFFERENCES STARTING TO CROP UP BY SUNDAY...BUT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS LIKELY.

WE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FEW...IF
ANY...CHANGES TO THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY
ABOVE 7500 FEET THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S THURSDAY COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...A SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA
AND CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH A WEAK AREA OF UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL KEEP ABUNDANT CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WHILE
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OBSCURED MOUNTAIN TOPS DEVELOP IN
THE AREA WHERE SHOWERS PERSIST.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THROUGH CENTRAL NEVADA
MONDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK TUESDAY...AND APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK DUE TO
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING OF SNOW FROM
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME SMALLER CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS
CREEK...AND THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT RESPOND MORE
RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. HIGH FLOWS IN OR NEAR SMALL STREAMS
MAY CAUSE SOGGY OR ERODED SECONDARY ROADWAYS THAT COULD MAKE THEM
IMPASSABLE.

THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE A RISE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/87/87



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