Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 212233
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
233 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
WITH VALLEY RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA ON
TUESDAY BUT DRIER BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING THE AREA MAY SEE SOME SNOW...CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. STAY TUNED FOR CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY
ABOVE 6,500 TO 7,000 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL NEVADA AND
WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO MOST OF THE VALLEY FLOORS WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WILL
OCCUR BEHIND COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY IN TONOPAH AND WEST WENDOVER
AREAS AND IN OTHER DOWNSLOPE PRONE AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS ELKO COUNTY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A BIT COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES OVER.

WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE MUCH DEEPER AND
FASTER UPPER LEVEL WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE MADE
SOME CHANGES MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 THAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE VARIOUS MODELS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE EAST...BUT AT THIS
TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A
FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST...BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE 12-18
HOURS. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE KEKO TERMINAL...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST MONDAY FOR NORTHWESTERN NYE
COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

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