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000
FXUS65 KLKN 312020
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
120 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS NEVADA KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, AS REMNANT
TROPICAL VORTICITY MAX OVER NYE COUNTY INTERACTS WITH PLENTIFUL
MONSOON MOISTURE. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT INTO THIS EVENING, WITH RADAR DATA THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY
INDICATING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR, AND CB
TOPS TO 60K FEET. OROGRAPHIC FORCING HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON VIRTUALLY ALL PEAKS. AFTER
STORMS INITIATE ON/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, STORM MOTION IS SLOW
AND ERRATIC, AND STORM/FLASH FLOODING OUTCOME WILL BE BASED ON
OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO FORMING IN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY, SO LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN ALL ZONES.
PW IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IS A BIT LESS, SO FLOODING IS LESS LIKELY IN
NW NEVADA. PW UP TO 1.1 INCH ACROSS WHITE PINE/NYE COUNTIES, WHERE
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST. STRONGEST STORMS WILL
PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 50-60 MPH.

FRIDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ACROSS NEVADA AFTER
NOON. 12Z NAM SUGGEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACROSS THE CWA, AND INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE POP GRIDS MORE INTO
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. INSTABILITY FIELDS FROM NAM/GFS ARE
EXTENSIVE, SUGGESTING ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER FROM TODAY`S
CONVECTION AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD DEBRIS. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT
ISSUING ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY, BUT DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW. FORCING WILL BE LESS ON FRIDAY, AS THE TROPICAL VORT
MAX DEPARTS EAST, AND MOISTURE/PW LEVELS DEGRADE SOME AS WELL.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER CROP OF CONVECTION, BUT FEEL FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD
BE LESS ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME FLASH
FLOODING, SO FORECAST SHIFT TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO MAKE THE CALL IF
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

SATURDAY...MONSOON REMAINS ACTIVE, WITH MOISTURE QUALITY AGAIN
RELOADING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. GFS PROGS STRONG INSTABILITY EAST
OF WINNEMUCCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH IMPRESSIVE LIFTED INDEX
FIELDS. 12Z NAM GOES GANGBUSTERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEVADA. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE POP GRIDS FOR ALL ZONES, AND FURTHER
INCREASES MAY BE NEEDED. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MAKE ANOTHER DAY-TO-DAY
DECISION IF ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY ON SATURDAY.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS WELL WHERE THE LI`S -2 OR LOWER. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO LIGHTNING...SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  JH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET, WITH LAL OF 4-5. CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
PRODUCING WETTING RAINS AT MOST LOCALES, SO CONCERN FOR NEW LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS IS LIMITED, BUT SOME NEW STARTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/87/87/99