Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 171122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
322 AM PST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...One more day of dry weather before a strong cold front
moves into the region late tonight and Sunday bringing snow, gusty
winds, and much colder temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. Dry and mild conditions today
ahead of a strong cold front that will barrel southward into
northern and central NV late tonight and Sunday bringing snow,
gusty winds, and much colder temperatures. Expecting 1 to 3 inches
of snow in the valleys with 4 to 8 inches in the mountains with
locally higher amounts. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued
for most of northern and central NV. Strong gusty winds are
expected on Sunday with west winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts up
to 55 mph over higher terrain and summits. The strongest winds are
expected across central NV and southeast Elko county where a Wind
Advisory has been posted. Heaviest snowfall will be along the
front on Sunday, then widespread snow showers Sunday night and
Monday. Much colder behind the front with highs on Monday only in
the 20s to the lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Friday.

Long term begins with the trough slowly exiting the region on
Monday night and Tuesday morning. This will keep some moisture in
the region causing light snowfall in northern and central NV. Snow
showers will gradually taper off Tuesday morning. Cold airmass
sets up over the region behind the departing trough, likely the
coldest air of the season as 700mb temps (-15 to -20) on the
order of -2 to -3 standard deviation anomaly. Tuesday and
Wednesday look to be the coldest days with highs in the 20s to
lower 30s. Nighttime lows will be very cold with the fresh
snowpack. Expecting lows in the single digits on Monday night, but
winds and cloud cover should prevent a complete bottoming out.
Tuesday night looks to be the coldest as we should see lighter
winds and clearer skies than on Monday night and many sites likely
dipping below zero. Slowly moderating temps through the end of
the week but still below average.

Long wave trough pattern is expected to remain in place through
the end of the week. A series of waves are will slide down the
western US and into our region. Models are struggling with any
sort of agreement in timing and placement of these systems.
Leaned more towards the EC solution with its deeper troughs
digging further south and west, which the GEFS mean also trended
towards. First system crosses the region Thursday into Friday
with the second system setting up for the weekend. Both systems
look to be fairly progressive and not as likely to drop as much
snow as the early week system.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24
hours. Expect afternoon and evening winds to pick out of the
south to southwest at KEKO, KWMC and KELY, gusting 18-22KTs.


Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Monday for Northern Elko County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Monday for
Southeastern Elko County-Southern Lander County and Southern
Eureka County-White Pine County.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for Northeastern Nye
County-Northwestern Nye County-Southeastern Elko County-White
Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Monday for
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-Ruby
Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-
Southwestern Elko County.



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