Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 302211
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
311 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY ENABLING MOISTURE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR
IN CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY...THEN WORK ITS WAY NORTH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE MOIST FLOW INCREASES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERING NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO POP UP MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEVADA TO START THE WEEKEND. 90 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATING A BIT...BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 50S AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SUNDAY. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
THEN SET IN ON MONDAY WITH A REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. ON TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN NEVADA AS CENTRAL NV DRIES OUT. DRY ALL AREAS
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE
GFS DIGGING A TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST BRINGING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV, WHILE THE ECMWF/CAN MODELS
MUCH DRIER. FOLLOWED THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEPT IT DRY ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD BRING A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE KTPH TERMINAL TIL 02Z TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A SMALL RISK FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON FRIDAY. A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
FURTHER NORTH...AFFECTING MOST ZONES. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
CONVECTION CAN ONLY BE DETERMINED AS ISOLATED.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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