Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 020910
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 AM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COOLING TREND ARRIVES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER. SATURDAY IS FORECASTED TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND THURSDAY.

A WINDY AND WARM WEDNESDAY ON TAP FOR NEVADA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS, IN THE UPPER
80S. STRONG TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS
AFTERNOON, AND STRONG SW WINDS WILL RESULT. MODELS FORECAST
700 MB WINDS OF 20-25 KTS FOR ALL ZONES, SO GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
WILL BE COMMON, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE DANGER OF FIRE SPREAD WILL INCREASE SHARPLY TODAY
WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND DRY AIR. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 00Z NAM PROGS A
POCKET OF INSTABILITY ACROSS SE ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIFTED INDEX AS LOW AS -3C. MOISTURE IS VERY
SKIMPY, WITH PW OF ONLY 0.50-0.60 INCH SE OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS,
BUT STILL AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS IS LIKELY WITH SOME DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...WINDY AND COOLER. LARGE STRONG TROUGH CONTINUES TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW, WITH HEIGHTS/THICKNESS FALLING
APPRECIABLY ACROSS NEVADA. THE COOLING TREND BEGINS, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS 5-8 DEGREES LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY`S READINGS.
STRONGEST SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS SE ZONES/WHITE PINE COUNTY,
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH, COURTESY OF A 996 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
WENDOVER AT 5 PM. MAV/MET GUIDANCE AGREE WITH 26 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT ELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS INCREASING LIFT ACTS ON
MARGINAL MOISTURE. TURNER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS PRETTY GOOD ON
DEPICTING THE FULL LATITUDE AUTUMN-LIKE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
WEST COAST AND DIGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. CENTER OF TROUGH
CLOSES OFF AND MOVE ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...KEY DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS POP UP...RELATIVELY MINOR BUT THEY DO MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
MADE BIGGEST NUMBER OF TWEAKS UP THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEREAFTER LARGELY LEFT PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALONE.

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE BIG DROP IN TEMPS AT 700 MB ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA ESPECIALLY. COOLING TREND AT ALL PLACES IN THE ELKO
FORECAST AREA...BUT HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES WILL BE DOWNRIGHT
CHILLY WITH HIGHS EVEN DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S AT LOW VALLEYS
SPOTS...AND PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS.

AND...WAIT FOR IT...WITH 7OO MB TEMPS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS RUNS TO
HIT -2C...AND IN THE THIS LATEST RUN...WAIT FOR IT....-4C TO -4.5C
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...FELT JUSTIFIED IN ADDING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 8500 FEET. THESE WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
SATURDAY LATER AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY MID MORNING AND ONLY IN PLACES
LIKE THE HIGHER INDEPENDENCE RANGE...RUBIES/EAST HUMBOLDTS...AND
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AND ENVIRONS. BOTTOM LINE...SOME HIGHER PEAKS
MAY GET AN INCH STORM TOTAL...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE ON
THE RIDGES WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.

OTHER ISSUE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MIN TEMPS
IN POPULATED AREAS DROPPING TO FREEZING AND POSSIBLY BELOW. NOT
READY FOR A FREEZE WARNING THIS FAR OUT...BUT WILL LIKELY ISSUED A
HWO OR SPS MENTIONING IT.

WINDS WILL NATURALLY PICK UP AS UPPER GRADIENT TRANSFERS DOWN BUT AT
THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT A WIND "EVENT".

IT`S STILL WAY EARLY SEPTEMBER....AND FALL IS HERE. BB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KELY COULD SEE VCTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL WIND/RH EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE APPROPRIATE FWZ WITH CRITICAL FUELS. AFTER 11 AM,
SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH, COMBINING
WITH MIN RH OF 8-14%.

INTRODUCED CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA, NAMELY EASTERN ELKO AND MUCH OF WHITE PINE
COUNTIES. COVERAGE AND ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIMITED, BUT
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
RUBY MOUNTAINS.

THURSDAY...SW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS ALL FWZ, AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES NW OF NEVADA ACROSS OREGON DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
FWZ. MUCH STRONGER WINDS ACROSS FWZ 455/457, 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. MIN RH ACROSS FWZ 457 OF 8-12%, SO RED FLAG WARNING
LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ 455,
WHITE PINE COUNTY, WHERE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL. TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY-EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY-EASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR NORTHERN NYE COUNTY/LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

&&

$$

99/98/98/99



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