Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 161017
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
317 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DIRTY RIDGE OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEVADA. DIRTY FLOW COVERS NORTHERN AND TO
LESSER EXTENT CENTRAL NEVADA. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACK HAD SOME VERY
LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAVE
REDUCED THESE AS ACTUAL CLOUD COVER BECAME MORE SPARSE. SURFACE IS
VERY DRY AND MOST OF SHOWERS WILL ONLY BECOME VIRGA OR...IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS..."SNIRGA". WEAK SHORTWAVES
NOTWITHSTANDING...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LARGER WAVE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LATER THURSDAY
AND CREATES AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR TONOPAH LOW FORMING FRIDAY AND ISOLATED...PROBABLY
DRY...THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEVADA...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE RUBIES AND POSSIBLY PINON
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN MILD SO ANY SNOW WILL BE IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. AS THE TROUGH EXITS OFF TO
THE EAST BY SUNDAY INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN MOST
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK A DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS EXPECT INSTABILITY
TO INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH EXPANDING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS COMING INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF NEXT TUESDAYS TROUGH PASSAGE...WHICH HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING THROUGH NEVADA WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

98/96/96




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