Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 042157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
157 PM PST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front is passing over the state today bringing
light snow showers to primarily the northern portions of the
state. Colder air will settle across the state with the passage of
the cold front. Another winter storm will pass over the state
late Monday and into Tuesday bringing another round of snow


.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

Today through Monday. A cold front is translating across Nevada
today bringing snow showers to the northern portions of the state.
The snow will be primarily in northern Elko county with
accumulations of an inch in the northern Elko County valleys and
less than half an inch for the rest of the valleys. The Jarbidge
range will see the largest accumulation of snow at 2-3 inches with
the rest of the ranges receiving less than a 1 1/2 inches. Ahead
of cold frontal passage the temperatures will be fairly warm in
the high 30`s to 40`s.

Monday night through Wednesday Morning. Another winter storm will
pass over the silver state bringing another round of snow showers.
The amount of the moisture associated with this system will be
higher than today`s system which will yield a larger area covered
by light snow showers. The snow will once again be concentrated in
Elko county with the valleys receiving 1 inch to 1 1/2 inches.
Elsewhere the valleys should receive inch or less. The Jarbidge
range will see the largest accumulation of snow at 2-3 inches with
the rest of the ranges receiving less than a 2 inches. Some light
snow showers will linger in the mountains into Wednesday morning
before being cleared out. Highs will be in the 20`s to low 30`s
with lows in the single digits to teens.

Wednesday. A transient ridge will quickly pass over the state
bringing a brief period of quiet weather and mostly sunny skies.
The lack of cloud cover will allow for ample radiational cooling
dropping the highs to the teens and 20`s and lows into the
negative and positive single digits into the positive teens.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Sunday.  Active and warmer
period in store. Overall the upper level flow transitions from
northerly to westerly Wednesday night, which allows a atmospheric
river to setup along the West Coast. Both EC and GFS spread
precip over the northern areas Thursday due to overrunning from
the warm associated with the next system. There is differences in
orientation of the jet and the forthcoming cold front, which will
play a role in whether the Sierra Mtns block some of the moisture
or not. Since the GEFS and NAFES are both depicting high/anomalies
atmosphere moisture (orginating from sub-tropics), leaned more to
their solutions in regards to pops and weather. With the warm air
advection, temperatures are likely to raise Thursday, although
too early tell what exactly the precip will start off in valleys.
It is possible some patch of light freezing drizzle are possible
Thursday afternoon or evening if an inversion holds in the
valleys. Precip should quickly transition to rain by Thursday
night for the major population centers, and continuing in the rain
Friday morning. Once again too early to tell where the snow level
will be, bu confident that accumulating snow should remain above
5500ft. By Friday afternoon, the cold front sags further south
into central NV and begins to weaken. Precip continues but more
scattered. Slightly cooler air pushes into northern NV so precip
will turn back to snow sometime on Friday, but significant
accumation is not expected. Similar conditions expected on
Saturday with slight chances for showers for the entire area
under moist westerly flow aloft. By Sunday, models disagree on the
system on whether it brings another round of valley rain/mtn snow
to the area, or waits until Monday. Maintain the pops north of
I-80 for the time being given the differences.

Overall, high temps start of cold on Wednesday but then are near
average for the rest of period. After a cold Thursday morning,
overnight lows will remain above average, with above freezing
overnight lows Friday morning for the population centers.

Winds...speeds and gusts should remain below advisory level,
although breezy south to southwest winds are expected Thursday
through Thursday night.


.AVIATION...Short period of light snow and MVFR conditions are
expect at WMC, EKO, and ELY later tonight and early tomorrow
morning. Confidence is high that these conditions will occur, but
still unsure on if they drop to IFR at some point. Also, precip
could start off as rain at WMC if it arrives earlier than
expect...but should quickly change over to snow. Minor runway
accumulations possible at all three. TPH should remain precip free
with mid or high level cloud cover.




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