Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 291308 CCA
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Elko NV
608 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Increased monsoon moisture combined with strong
daytime heating under a high pressure ridge over the region will
produce afternoon showers and thunderstorms across central Nevada
today...then expand northward into northern Nevada over the
weekend. Dry thunderstorms that occur have the potential to spark
wildfires. Gusty winds could accompany thunderstorms that develop
through the weekend. Temperatures will cool down a few degrees
next week but still remain hot and slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Atmospheric set up is prime for dry thunderstorms
across central Nevada with possible some embedded wet
thunderstorms. See fire weather discussion below for additional
information. Additional cloud cover that will develop today will
cool temperatures down somewhat today. However, the region remains
under a strong ridge and above normal temperatures are expected
today across a large part of the state. Heat advisory continues
for all but extreme northeast Nevada with temperatures in the 100F
to 103F range expected in many valley locations. Increased cloud
cover and moisture will aid in moderating temperatures somewhat
over the weekend but the state will remain quite hot, just a few
degrees cooler. Winds will continue to remain relatively light
under the ridge with some afternoon gusts around 20 kts possible.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Thursday. Large expansive
upper level ridge remains the main story for northern and central
Nevada. Models are showing the center of the ridge over northern
Texas, while a weak trough is cruising through the Rockies in
southwestern Canada. On Sunday, mid-moisture will hang around the
forecast area, with sounding profiles possibly favoring a mix of
wet and dry storms in central NV. Models are depicting slightly
higher storm motions across eastern Elko county of 15-20 knots,
and so have tried to massage weather grids to reflect dry
thunderstorms. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 80s to low
90s in the central to mid to upper 90s in the north.

On Monday, an upper level trough will pin-wheel around and
take up position near the Pacific Northwest States. Some afternoon
breezes can be expected, but wind gust speeds should stay below 30
mph. Moisture is expected to hang around the east and central, and
have kept convective activity going in those areas. Look for highs
in the mid 80s to low 90s in the central to mid to upper 90s in
the north.

Tuesday through Thursday. The upper flow will take a more westerly
direction which will tend to dry out the forecast area. PoP grids
reflect this thinking, with the threat of convective activity
remaining in portions of White Pine County and extreme eastern
Nevada through this period. Highs will be near normal with
readings in the mid 80s to mid 90s through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...Look for VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Mid-
level moisture will cause TS across White Pine and northern Nye
Counties. Have kept VCTS across the central TAF sites of ELY and
TPH during the afternoon. Convective outflow gusts to 45KT are
possible with any storm, but confidence is too low to place in
TAF. KELY will continue to have high density altitudes due to the
hot conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Conditions look favorable for critical dry
thunderstorm areal coverage over parts central Nevada across fire
weather zones 454, 455 and 457. Lightning detection networks
showed a few strikes today across these zones but an upward trend
in strike coverage is anticipated today with deeper mid-level
monsoon moisture working its way into south central, central and
western Nevada. Lack of significant vertical shear will tend to
favor a pulsed convective mode, especially just downstream of
mountain ranges. A more than sufficient dry sub-cloud layer will
exist across the state to promote dry thunderstorms with LCL
heights from 500mb to 520mb. Upper-level lapse rates greater than
7.25C/km and afternoon CAPE values will also be sufficient for
afternoon convection across central Nevada. Synoptic flow will be
on the light side but erratic thunderstorm outflow gusts of up to
50 mph are possible and will allow rapid spread of new fire starts.
Minimum daytime relative humidities will be below 15% across much
of the state today but should improve through the weekend as
deeper monsoon moisture moves into the region.

Dry thunderstorm coverage will expand into northern Nevada
Saturday with the influx of more monsoon moisture and arrival of a
weak short wave to the state. More embedded wet thunderstorms are
expected Saturday with moisture and slightly lower LCLs across
fire zones 454, 455 and 457 but dry thunderstorms should remain
the primary convective type across zones 468, 469 and 470.
Therefore, will keep the fire weather watch for dry thunderstorms
across northeastern Nevada for the Saturday period. Concern exists
for the central fire zones of 454, 455, and 457 for Saturday.
Model soundings continue to suggest high LCLs, around 520 to 540mb
during the day. Models are showing a PV anomaly, albeit weak,
moving across central Nevada during max heating during the day.
Upper level lapse rates and high level total-totals are somewhat
borderline. However, it is difficult to determine at this time
how much the lower atmosphere will moisten from previous day`s
convective activity. The above fire zones in central Nevada may
see another round of isolated dry thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
and critical fire conditions may be possible.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for Eastern Elko County-Eastern Humboldt County and
Northwestern Elko County-Southwestern and Central Elko County.

Heat Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Humboldt County-
Northeastern Nye County-Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County-Southwestern Elko County-White Pine
County.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
evening for Central Lander and Eureka Counties-Northern Nye
County/Lander and Eureka Counties South of Highway 50-White Pine
County.

&&

$$

93/86/86/93



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