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000
FXUS65 KLKN 162109
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
209 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER THE MAIN IMPACT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PREVALENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...MILD
WEATHER BUT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WAS
HAD BY ALL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS POURING OVER THE
RIDGE. BIG STORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE THE
INCREASING WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE
NICE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH...IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STRONG WINDS...40-60 KNOTS AT 700 MB AT
12Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
AS MENTIONED...THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG. MAV GUIDANCE FOR KENV IS
SHOWING 39 KNOTS SUSTAINED DURING THE LATE MORNING. GEFS 850 MB
WIND ANOMALIES ARE PEGGING GREATER THAN +5 SD DURING THE LATE
MORNING PERIOD...WITH A BULLS-EYE OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
ELKO COUNTY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT AT ABOUT
12 MB FROM HUMBOLDT TO WHITE PINE COUNTIES. HAVE THEREFORE
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR NORTHERN ELKO
...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY...WITH WINDS 25-35
WITH GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH. WITH THE STRONG WINDS...BLOWING DUST MAY
BE AN ISSUE AND HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THIS STORM WILL BE A
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY SCANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK
WITH. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT BRINGS
THE COLD AIR...EXPECTING A QUICK CHANGEOVER. FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS...EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S. A FEW OF THE COLDER LOCALES MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DISAGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
RIDGE OVER EASTERN PACIFIC ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SKIRT NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN
NEVADA. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL FEATURE BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS
THE WEST WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT AND POSSIBLY
PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER WITH UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES KEPT GHOST POPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY EC DEVELOPS A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE
PROGRESSIVE WITH RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PRODUCING
VERY GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN TURNING NORTHWEST. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KEKO AND KELY IN THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO
A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR KEKO IN THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO
COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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