Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 282141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
241 PM PDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms associated with
an upper-level disturbance across southern Nevada are expected
across south-central portion of the state today spreading farther
north and east into Eureka and Elko counties on Friday. A Pacific
trough will bring increasing winds, cloud cover as well as valley
showers and mountain snow primarily to the northern half of the
state early next week. An extended stretch of cool fall-like
temperatures are expected next week after a cold front moves
through the area Sunday.


.SHORT TERM...tonight through Friday. Satellite imagery shows
vort max currently situated over the Las Vegas area. This feature
along with abundant mid- level moisture will initiate afternoon
showers and thunderstorms across mainly northern Nye and White
counties today, spreading farther north and east across the state
Thursday. Lingering moisture across ELko county combined with day
time insolation could bring a few showers and afternoon
thunderstorms to eastern Elko county Friday, especially across
higher terrain, before much drier southwest flow moves into the
region. Closed mid-level circulation will devolve into a short
wave feature and get absorbed by the long- wave Pacific trough
that will begin to affect Humboldt county by late Thursday and
especially Friday in the form of increased southwest winds.
Increased cloud cover will bring high temperatures down a few
degrees from today but most locations should still get into the
70s and lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Wednesday. Some shower
activity from lingering moisture will exist through the weekend
across the eastern parts of Elko county east of the Rubies
Saturday. The Pacific trough approaching the great Basin region
will provide much cooler temperatures next week to the state,
generally 15 to 20 degrees cooler than in the past few days. A
cold front advancing across the state Sunday Highs in the 50s and
60s with lows in the upper 20s and 30s will be common across much
the CWA through next week. In addition, Pacific moisture
accompanying the system will bring showers and higher elevation
snow to the northern half of the state. 554-558dm heights are
still a possibility Monday as the low moves eastward across the
region. This could drop snow levels to around 6000 feet over most
of the CWA. However, the low will tend to move quickly through the
the Great Basin region so significant so significant rain or snow
accumulations are not expected at this time.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions with clear skies will persist at KWMC
through the Thursday but gusty afternoon winds near around 25 kts
are possible Friday afternoon as a Pacific storm system begins to
affect northwest Nevada. A mid-level system over southern Nevada
will lower cigs and bring showers and thunderstorms to KELY and
KTPH today with lesser chances for showers and thunderstorms at
KTPH Friday.


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will shift to the east tonight with
southwest flow aloft across northern and central Nevada. Moisture,
albeit limited, will move north over the area bringing isolated
showers and thunderstorms to the eastern fire zones for Thursday
afternoon. Winds will be light.

A storm system will remain off the Pacific Northwest shore for
Friday. The proximity of this low pressure system will bring
increasing wind speeds across portions of fire zone 467. In
addition, relative humidities are expected to reach critical
thresholds. Therefore, a fire weather watch has been issued for
zone 467 for Friday.

Saturday through next week. Conditions will continue to trend
cooler through the period. A potent early season storm is poised
to drop into the early portions of next week, with temperatures
dropping low enough for snow levels to possibly drop to the
6000-6500 foot level. Winds will be breezy each afternoon with
below normal temperatures.


Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for Central and Western Humboldt County.



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