Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 230956 CCA
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
241 AM PDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level distrubance will produce
some intervals of cloud cover today including the chance of a few
scattered showers, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across
far north and east central Nevada through this afternoon. An
unsettled weather pattern will develop in the week ahead as a
west to northwest flow of Pacific moisture produces numerous
showers across the northern half of the state on Monday.
Additional weather systems along with cooler temperatures will
bring more rain and snow to the region through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... Sunday through Tuesday.

Lead weak shortwave has produced a few light
showers/sprinkles/virga during the overnight across Humboldt and
northern Elko counties north of Interstate 80. Second shortwave
will swing across central and southern Nevada this afternoon. The
combination of daytime heating and weak instability could trigger
a few more showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm farther
south into portions of east central Nevada from Elko into White
Pine counties. Temperatures this afternoon will be mainly in the
60s, though some lower 70s will persist farther south in Nye
County.

A stronger shortwave will arrive with a deeper feed of Pacific
moisture early Monday. Showers will be most numerous across the
northern half of the CWA especially across portions of Humboldt,
northern Lander/Eureka and Elko counties where a QPF max around
0.50 inches could fall in the higher elevations surrounding
Mountain City, Owyhee, and Jarbidge. It will become breezy for a
time on Monday afternoon as southwest winds veer to the west and
gust to around 30 mph into the evening. Temperatures will be
cooler on Monday as well, with daytime highs ranging from the
mid/upper 40s in the far north, mainly in the 50s elsewhere, but
some 60s will linger farther south in Nye County.

Widespread precipitation will diminish for Tuesday, but the
chances will linger as snow levels lowering to between 5500 to
6000 feet across Humboldt and Elko counties. As a result,
scattered snow showers or a mix of rain and snow showers will be
prevalent to the valley floors before another shortwave and surge
of Pacific moisture arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. Max
temperatures on Tuesday will be confined to the 40s and 50s most
locations with a few 60 degree readings possible again in the far
south.

.LONG TERM... Tuesday night through next Sunday night

Models are in good agreement that the long terms remains
active/wet with below average temps due to a moist zonal flow
through Thursday. Thereafter, the area is sandwiched between a
long-wave ridge axis to the west and a long-wave trof to the east.

Specificallly, frontal boundary appears to stall along or north of
I-80 and weaken over northern NV Tuesday night before another
wave interacts with it Wednesday morning, with another one
Wednesday night...each creating precip. The 500mb closed low just
in Washington digs southeast by early Thursday, which finally
drives the front and storm track southeast out of the state.
Eventually a 500mb closed low forms somewhere in UT on Friday.
Still some issues among the models and ensembles on how much
moisture is associated with the wrap-around from this closed low
and associated sfc low; however, in all cases only the northeast
corner of the state is affected by this on Friday (GFS more than
the EC); Therefore, shower chances continue on Friday in mainly
Elko county, albeit less than on Thursday or Wednesday. All depict
a long wave ridge building over the west coast Saturday, keeping
the area under northerly flow. 24hr ago, the ridge axis looked
more impressive, establishing itself as a block and keeping the
storm track further north. Not so much case now, as another
frontal system breaks it down and brushes northern NV, bringing at
least some cloud cover to northern NV on Sunday. NBM is still
depicting pops for this event but kept the area dry in line with
WPC as future model runs could push this system further north.

With all this in mind, QPF amounts still look decent for areas
north of I-80, especially along the ID/NV border...although the
24hr trend is downward. Snow levels drop significantly by
Wednesday afternoon and remain in the 5000 to 6000ft area until
late Friday...thus higher elevations could see some accumlations
from Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Although valley locations
will also see snow showers or snow grain showers Thursday and
Friday afternoons, accumlations are unlikely. Another impact is
northerly winds, especially Wednesday afternoon behind the cold
front. These winds will continue to be gusty through Saturday,
especially in those proned areas. An advisory maybe required for
some areas Wednesday afternoon. Obvisouly with northerly flow at
the sfc and aloft, high temps will remain below average (upper 40s
to upper 50s) through Saturday. By Sunday, heights climb further,
so expect high temps to be at least average.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR with broken cloud deck at mid or high levels;
otherwise an increase in southwest winds today, with gusts up to
25kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY... Some smaller rivers and creeks are running high.
The lower stretch of the Humboldt River from Battle Mountain to
the Humboldt/Pershing County line is still experiencing flooding
issues. At Wildhorse Reservoir, water is being released and
flowing over the spillway. As a result, the Owyhee River is
showing a rise. Outdoor enthusiasts should watch out for and be
cautious around higher flows.

Here are the locations where flood warnings are currently in
effect:

Humboldt River - Battle Mountain: Minor flooding continues.

Humboldt River - Comus, near Winnemucca: Moderate flooding
continues.

All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood
stage. Due to increased flow, River Statements have been issued
to provide information concerning the following sites:

Wildhorse Dam - at Wildhorse

Owyhee River - at Wildhorse

Owyhee River - near Mountain City

Mary`s River - near Deeth

Bruneau River - near Rowland

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

95/85/85



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