Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS65 KLKN 252100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NEVADA MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE, PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PERSISTENT WET
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LOW SINKING SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON, CLEARLY
SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER WASHINGTON STATE. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
INCOMING TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER NW NEVADA, AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE REDEVELOPED YET AGAIN. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH SUNSET, WITH THE MORE ENHANCED
COVERAGE AND STORM INTENSITY STILL EXPECTED TO FAVOR AREAS NORTH
OF I-80. INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL, WITH CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, BUT SHEAR SO FAR IS WEAK, AND STORMS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO REMAIN ORGANIZED. INCOMING DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE
PAC NW TROUGH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL, LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND THE OCCASIONAL FUNNEL CLOUD.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR SPOKANE, WASHINGTON
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NEVADA. KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS AGAIN MILD IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY...PAC NW UPPER LOW STILL DOESN`T MOVE, WITH ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPING IT STATIONARY OVER WASHINGTON. TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED WEAK VORT MAXES WILL RESIDE OVER NEVADA, WITH ALL MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY FORECASTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND
AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF
THE CWA. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS ALL ZONES,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NEAR TONOPAH, WHERE
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL SUPPORT
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. WITH SATURATED SOILS AND FULL
STREAMS, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

WEDNESDAY...STILL WET. PAC NW LOW STILL RELUCTANT TO MOVE, WITH
BOTH 12Z GFS/ECMWF KEEPING IT MEANDERING OVER IDAHO. FORCING ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL AGAIN BE
STRONG, WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA. AGAIN, HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, WITH THE LEAST
COVERAGE ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN ON TUESDAY, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY FAVORING THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.
TURNER


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE
TROF AXIS INTO EASTERN NV OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NV. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER TO THE
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA AND EC FURTHER SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NV. THUS WILL LEAVE DAY 7 DRY AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. JH

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE TAF SITES THE ENSUING 24HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. JH

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.