Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 221018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
318 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream into the
region for the weekend and into the start of the new week. An
approaching trough from the west will help to interact with this
moisture and bring an increase chance and coverage for showers and
storms. Drier air works its way back into the area by mid-week,
diminishing thunderstorm coverage.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Another surge of monsoonal
moisture moves in from the south and southeast today with a
combination of dry and wet thunderstorms, mainly across northern
Nye and White Pine counties. An isolated storm or two is possible
in Elko county this afternoon but expecting an increase in
coverage tonight as moisture pushes further north. PW values
increase through the overnight tonight and expect thunderstorms to
transition to mainly wet.

Sunday the trough out over the Pacific moves onshore and
will interact with the continued monsoonal moisture surge that is
pushing northwest. Thunderstorm coverage will greatly expand with
widespread PW values of 0.75 or better. Expecting mostly wet
thunderstorms with some dry thunderstorms on the leading edge of
the moisture push.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday. The period begins with
an active monsoon pattern in place with precipitable water values
around 1 inch. Main concern will be localized flooding under the
more intense storm cells. On Tuesday upper low off the CA coast
will add some dynamics to the mix and could see some strong to
severe thunderstorms. Drier air begins to work its way into the
area from the west on Thursday which will limit thunderstorm
coverage to eastern NV and reduce coverage.


.AVIATION...Moisture and instability across east central NV this
afternoon will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
with possible impacts at the KELY terminal.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms are possible over eastern
White Pine County today. Storm activity is expected to expand
north and west each day through Monday with storms transitioning
from briefly dry, to wet. Best chances for TS today will be over
White Pine County. By Sunday most areas south of I80 may see
showers and thunderstorms, with moderate to possibly heavy rains.
Overnight RH recoveries will begin to have decent improvements
over Central NV Saturday night. Recoveries continue to improve
Sunday night and Monday night across most of central and northern
NV as mid and surface moisture increases.




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