Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 291048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
648 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Early this morning, MCS activity was focused along a surface
boundary extending from western IL west into the Central Plains. The
parent surface low was analyzed over extreme NW Wisconsin. These
thunderstorms in the Midwest have spread a thin cirrus shield over
the Ohio Valley. Southerly winds at the surface have remained
somewhat elevated overnight thanks to a 35 kt SW LLJ at 2 kft.
Surface high pressure was centered over the Outer Banks, and the
robust SW return flow in the low levels has resulted in temperatures
several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.

The warm up continues today, and summertime humidity returns as
well. High temps will be in the mid/upper 80s. Surface dewpoints are
forecast to rise into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees this
afternoon. A mid-level wave near the Gulf Coast in addition to
abundant moisture will lead to numerous thunderstorms across the
Deep South today. With the continued northward push of warm, moist
air, diurnal heating may spark isolated convection across the
southern half of central KY. With no forcing mechanism and residual
dry air aloft, coverage will remain limited.

Isolated showers/storms will diminish this evening with the loss of
heating. It will be quite mild tonight, with lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s. On Friday, the slow-moving frontal system is likely to
still be northwest of the CWA. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development is expected across much of the region, aided in part by
a weak shortwave on the southern periphery of deepening northern
stream trough. Diurnal heating will still be a primary factor as
well. The higher coverage looks to be east of I-65, where deeper
moisture will be present. Expect highs into the mid 80s.

.Long Term (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017

The primary large scale upper trough finally swings down into the
Upper Midwest Friday night. Thunderstorms are likely to move in from
the west Friday night, and the lingering surface boundary will
likely keep rain and storms in the area throughout Saturday. Very
heavy rainfall will be possible during this period. Highs Saturday
will be a touch cooler thanks to clouds and precip, likely in the
low/mid 80s.

Have kept a dry forecast for the Sunday-Sunday night time frame with
brief ridging building through at the surface. We may well stay dry
on Monday as well. The latest model suite is suggest a shortwave
trough dropping southeast out of the Plains, affecting central KY
and southern IN into the midweek period. But pattern evolution and
sensible weather details remains unclear. It is likely to stay warm,
with highs generally in the mid/upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s to
around 70.


.Aviation (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Thu June 29 2017

High pressure off the East Coast will bathe the region in
increasingly humid, warm air from today into tomorrow. Afternoon
thunderstorms may pop up in the heat of the day today, with the
highest coverage over southern Kentucky. Winds will come in from the
SSW and will get a little gusty, to around 20kt.

Low level moisture advecting northward from the Gulf of Mexico may
form a sub-fuel alternate ceiling early Friday morning.




Short Term........EBW
Long Term.........EBW
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