Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 281852
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
252 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2016
This afternoon`s showers/tstms will quickly move east early this
evening, with weak high pressure bringing us dry weather tonight
through Friday evening. We`ll have a great night for sleeping
tonight with lows in the 50s and dew points dipping into the upper
40s by morning. Highs tomorrow will mostly be in the 70s with
sunshine in the morning but increasing clouds in the afternoon.
Friday night low pressure entering the Ozarks will set up a warm
front reaching east into Kentucky while a low level jet revs up over
the lower Mississippi Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will break
out to our west and will spread eastward into the LMK CWA overnight.
Instability will be weak and elevated here with just a few rumbles
of thunder expected.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Low pressure approaching from the west will bring increasing chances
of showers over the weekend, with an inch or two of rainfall within
reach over the course of the two days.
On Sunday that low will amble through or near Kentucky. A 5H vort
and speed max will approach from the northwest by evening to help
spark more vigorous convection. The degree of instability will be in
question given clouds and possible morning showers, and it`s too
early to nail down the exact placement of the various synoptic
features, but it`s a system that will need to be watched.
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually pull off to the east Sunday
night, possibly lingering into Monday in the Blue Grass.
After a respite for the first part of the new work week, a cold
front will approach the area from the north Wednesday/Thursday. How
far south this front gets and how much moisture it will have to work
with are in question. However, given deep upper troffing to be in
place over the eastern United States will forecast the front
advancing southward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with a
chance of showers.
Generally cool temperatures can be expected as that upper trof
develops next week. Lows in the middle and upper 40s are forecast
each morning Tuesday through Thursday.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Only TAF concerns will be gusty winds and perhaps an isolated
shower/storm near SDF/LEX this afternoon. Did add VCSH in the TAF
for SDF/LEX with the latest HRRR indicating some widely scattered
cells could make it into these terminals. Won`t include any flight
restrictions at this time though due to isld nature. WSW winds will
gust to around 18-22 kts at all TAF sites this afternoon as well.
This evening any convection chances should diminish and skies look
to become clear. With the atmosphere remaining a little mixy aloft,
don`t anticipate many fog issues overnight although may need to look
at an MVFR tempo for BWG around dawn in later TAF issuances. Few-
sct mid level clouds look likely for tomorrow under lighter winds.