National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KLSX 070806
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
206 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 203 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

A beautiful day is expected with temperatures warming into the
50s/60s as the 850mb thermal ridge is expected to be aligned along
I-44/I-70 corridor in Missouri/Illinois by this afternoon. At or
above MOS guidance has been the way to go this week and see no
reason today will be an exception.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 203 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

Shortwave currently located across Nevada will continue to deepen
and drop southeast toward Arizona/New Mexico, while the broader
upper level trof aligns from southwest to northeast across the
Midwest on Saturday. At the surface a cold front will drop south
tonight and Saturday across the CWA with falling temperatures a
good bet. A band of post frontal precipitation is likely to
develop from west to east during the afternoon along and south of
I-70 in concert with the upper level trof passage. 00Z model
guidance came in a little cooler and suggest that the rain may mix
with snow as the colder air builds south. No accumulation is
expected at this time.

Surface ridge will quickly move across the CWA Saturday night and
Sunday morning with a southwest surface wind returning to the CWA by
Sunday afternoon. So after a relatively cool start to the day,
temperatures should rebound Sunday afternoon under a sunny sky.

Still on track for a couple of stellar days early next week with
temperatures back into the 60s Monday and Tuesday. Next cold front
ends the party Tuesday evening with another bout of colder air
building into the Midwest. Maintained chance POPs Tuesday night and
Wednesday for any post frontal precipitation, but discounted the
ECWMF which is the only model depicting a strong synoptic system
moving across the CWA on Wednesday.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. Like last night, will probably see a period of MVFR VSBYs
late tonight for STL Metro sites. Do not think conditions for this
will be as favorable at COU and UIN with better mixing expected. Low
clouds and light pcpn are expected to close in on UIN and COU late
Friday night, shortly after cold FROPA in the evening, but are
expected to be beyond the valid period.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR thru the period. Brief periods of MVFR
VSBYs probable again late tonight, with southerly winds to kick in
on Friday. Cold FROPA expected late Friday night and lowering CIGs.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX