Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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349
FXUS63 KLSX 190445
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

High pressure over the area will persist overnight with light
southwest winds. A few high clouds will stream over parts of the
region, but most areas will again see mostly clear skies.
Temperatures over night will be a couple of degrees above seasonal
normals with the coolest temperatures likely to be seen in the
eastern Ozarks.


Kelly

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Cool and quiet weather pattern to persist through Thursday with
clear skies and south winds. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s
to mid 50s with the coolest temps over the eastern Ozarks once again.

On Thursday, highs will be in the mid 70s to around 80.

Byrd/Walsh

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

With ridge of high pressure to our east, warm southerly winds to
persist across the region through Saturday. So highs Friday and
Saturday will be about 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year, in the upper 70s to low 80s.

In the meantime, deepening upper trof over the western US will begin
to lift out towards region Friday night, pushing a strong cold front
east. The front will move into northwestern MO by Saturday
afternoon. Will see some scattered showers and storms ahead of
boundary with best chances over central/northeast MO, west central
IL through Saturday afternoon. Then storm chances really ramp up
Saturday evening through Sunday morning everywhere as main front
moves through. 12z model runs, both GFS and ECMWF, now indicating
a cutoff low/shortwave developing over TX/LA gulf coast region,
that could cause activity over area to linger through late Sunday
night for eastern portions of forecast area. Timing of this in
addition to a secondary cold front dropping south into forecast
area by Monday night will affect precipitation chances through
this period. For now, have low chance/slight chance pops for
portions of area through Tuesday. Otherwise, after first frontal
boundary, temps to remain near normal through Monday. Then much
colder air to filter in behind secondary cold front Monday night.
Will only see highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s Tuesday and in
the mid 50s to low 60s on Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017


High pressure will remain in control of the weather through
Thursday evening. A continuation of dry and mainly clear skies
will persist over the region with light southwest winds.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR conditions will continue through Thursday evening. The
terminal will see mainly clear skies and light southwest winds.

Kelly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     56  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          50  76  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        51  78  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  51  79  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           50  78  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      50  79  50  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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