Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 200800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1021MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SERN VA WITH A 1007MB SFC LOW
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN. MOSTLY TRANSPARENT CIRRUS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE ARE SO FAR TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPR 30S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCALES (INCLUDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND).

SINCE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...EXPECT A QUICK WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE IN RETURN FLOW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDSTO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!






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