Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 231410
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1010 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS ON TAP
FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN MD
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE VA PIEDMONT.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AFTER A VERY CHILLY MORNING. SOME OF THE
RIDGELINES WON`T REACH THE 70F DEG MARK THIS AFTN...W/ MOST OTHER
PLACES BARELY SURPASSING IT. THE CLOUD SITUATION WILL REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME. THE SRN ATLC LOW WILL SPREAD MORE WAVES OF CIRRUS UP
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE CLEAR. THE SFC CONDITIONS
WILL SEE A TRANSITION HOWEVER...W/ THE CONTINENTAL SFC HIGH PRES
AREA SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND SWINGING
THE SFC WINDS FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE SAME AS TUE...AT LEAST TO START THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEG HIGHER BUT THE MOST NOTABLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE HIGHER DEWPOINTS - AND MORE CLOUD COVER THE
SECOND-HALF OF THE DAY - AS THE SRN ATLC LOW BEGINS TO JOG UP THE
ATLC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY GETS TRANSFERRED TO THE COAST. GFS AND ECMWF NOW
SHOWING A SURFACE LOW TRACK NORTHWARD AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING ON PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS
THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR STEADIER
RAINFALL. PUSHED TEMPERATURES BACK A COUPLE DEGREES WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW DOWN LEAVING MORE CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
BRINGING MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE ONLY
TOPIC OF NOTE BESIDES THE SEASONABLY COOL/DRY CONDITIONS IS THE
WIND SHIFT LATER THIS AFTN FROM NW TO NE. ONLY CIRRUS DECKS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF DCA/BWI IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER TODAY/TONIGHT.
MUCH THE SAME TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...INTO WED.
AS THE SRN ATLC LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST LATER IN THE
DAY...MORE CLOUDS AND LOWER CIG HEIGHTS WILL ARRIVE.

SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTH ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN
MOST LIKELY FROM KBWI SOUTH ACROSS KDCA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.

GRADUALLY LATER THIS AFTN...THE LIGHT AND STEADY NW WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO NE AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AN UPPER
LOW HOVERING OVER THE SRN ATLC STATES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BEGIN CREATING SCA GUSTS
OVER THE BAY ON WED. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER MD
BAY/TP FROM THE LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN HRS ON WED.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN ALSO LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE LARGELY IN BLOW-OUT MODE OR BELOW NORMAL ATTM...
MOSTLY HOVERING IN THE HALF-FOOT BELOW RANGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
OR SLOWLY CONTINUE TO DROP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY W/ THE SAME WIND
FIELD THAT WILL GRADUALLY TURN NELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS
TONIGHT. A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BRING UP THE
LEVELS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...GMS/KCS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...KRW
AVIATION...GMS/KRW
MARINE...GMS/KCS/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS






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