Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 051433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH A RETURN TO HOT HUMID CONDITIONS BY MID NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONSHORE FLOW HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT.
DRIER AIR IS FILLING IN FROM THE ERN SHORE AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
MIXED OUT TO FAIR CU OVER CNTRL MD AND NRN VA AND EAST. LOW CLOUDS
WILL BANK AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE RISK
OF LIGHT RAIN IS LESS THAN THIS MORNING. MAX TEMPS MID 80S WHERE
SUN HAS ALREADY SHINED...AROUND 80F STILL OVC.

DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MIN
TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S INLAND...UPR 60S URBAN AND LOW 70S NEAR
SHORE. CLOUDS WILL BUILD OVER SERN VA AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SERN STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE WITH CONTINENTAL AIR COMING EAST AROUND THE
HIGH FROM NEW ENGLAND. MORE SUN SO MAX TEMPS A LITTLE
HIGHER...GENERALLY MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALOFT...A
CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME TRAPPED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE WILL STILL BE AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT...SO CLOUD FORECAST UNCERTAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND NAM HINTS THERE COULD BE MOISTURE EAST OF BLUE RIDGE.
LOWS DEPENDENT ON THIS...BUT 60S SHOULD BE FOUND FOR MOST. TRIMMED
BACK POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN SOUTHWESTERN CWA MONDAY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE. HIGHS MAY APPROACH
90 BUT WILL STAY JUST SHORT FOR MANY. DRY WX AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT.

DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES EAST
OFF SHORE AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS TOWARD THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE
ESTABLISHED...RESULTING IN RISING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS
IN THE 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY...BUT MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF PUSHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MODELS DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. ECMWF FASTER THAN GFS...BUT
RIGHT NOW PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE END OR AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BUT STILL LIKELY NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS MIX OUT FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR MOVES IN.

LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MORNING FOG IN PRONE LOCATIONS...VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATED SCA FOR LIGHTER WINDS OBSERVED. 18 KT GUSTS GENERALLY
LIMITED TO CNTRL AND SRN MD WATERS INTO THIS EVENING...HOLDING ON
LONGEST FOR SRN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL BECOME POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST AT 15 KT OR LESS FOR NOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING ELY FLOW THIS MORNING...GENERALLY 0.6FT
ON THE BAY AND APPROACHING 1 FT ON THE TIDAL POTOMAC. THE
PREFERRED HIGH TIDE IS TONIGHT AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
LIKELY ANNAPOLIS TO ST MARYS AND POSSIBLE FOR BALTIMORE. DC SW
WATERFRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOODING WITH HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL BE ISSUING THE ADVISORY BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532-
     533-540>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ



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