Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 060311
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME LIGHT RETURNS REMAINING ON RADAR LATE THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MUCH OF THE NIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE
LOW. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A LIGHT NW WIND. LOW TEMPS STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO LOWS OVER THE
HIGHLANDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON NWRN SUBURBS TO THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS
WESTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS INTO CWFA FRIDAY. NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY WL OVERRIDE
RDG...WHICH WL ERASE THE SUNNY START TO THE DAY. XPCT MOCLDY TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN-EVE HRS.

THE THERMAL TROF WL BE CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...FRI WL BE A COOLER DAY W/ MAXT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND
MIN-T 10-15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE SOME WARMING BEGINS
SATURDAY...SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER THIS TREND INITIALLY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND
50S SOUTH.

LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE COMMON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAINING AOA FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. KEPT TUESDAY A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM. STILL UNCLEAR IF THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA OR SKIRT TO OUR SOUTH...FOR NOW LEFT SCHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
TERMINALS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS MAINLY
20-25KTS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. HV SCA CONDS FOR ALL WATERS
TNGT...AND ADJUSTED CONTINUATION INTO FRI MRNG FOR THE BAY. WINDS
MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR A WHILE LATE TONIGHT. SCA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES...WHERE
GUSTS SHOULD REDEVELOP FOR AT LEAST A WHILE IN THE MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ICE-INDUCED STREAM RISES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MANY OF THE STREAMS HAVE NOW CRESTED AND
ARE FALLING. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THERE IS AN ICE JAM ON THE
LOST/CACAPON RIVER IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ABOVE GREAT CACAPON THAT
HAS NOT YET BROKEN...BUT WITH COLD AIR NOW BACK IN PLACE...IT MAY
NOT UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN...KEEPING RISES GRADUAL FOR NOW.

ALSO APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME SORT OF ICE EFFECT ON GOOSE CREEK
BETWEEN EVERGREEN MILLS AND LANSDOWNE. THE CURRENT STAGE/FLOW AT THE
EVERGREEN MILLS GAUGE IS HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON
UPSTREAM SITES...AND STILL RISING. STILL A FEW FEET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST A WEEK...THE MELT OF THE NEWLY-FALLEN SNOW SHOULD BE
GRADUAL. SO THE FLOOD THREAT FROM THAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT WILL
BE MONITORED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ003>006-
     501>507.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ025>031-040-
     501-503>508.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
     536-538-539-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...KCS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJL/KCS/MSE
MARINE...MSE/HTS
HYDROLOGY...


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