Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across southeast New Mexico and West
Texas today and tonight while mid and high clouds decrease.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014/

A broad upper ridge continues to spin over much of the southwest
CONUS, as seen on WV satellite this morning. This ridge will remain
the dominate weather feature during this forecast package, keeping
conditions generally hot and dry through the weekend.

The hot temperatures continue today under the influence of the upper
ridge with highs just above normal most areas. Have extended the
current Heat Advisory through 15Z just to get through the warm
morning lows but high temperatures do not look to meet advisory
criteria today. Much of the same expected Thursday, if not a degree
or two warmer. The center of the upper ridge will shift slightly
southward Friday and the 850mb thermal ridge looks to intensify just
west of the CWA. By Saturday, afternoon high temperatures will range
from 99-103 most areas with locations along the Pecos and Rio Grande
River Valleys possibly reaching 106, which is well above normal
readings. The airmass will be relatively dry so heat index values
will be close to the ambient temperatures, which will be at or just
above Heat Advisory criteria so one may be needed Friday and
Saturday to highlight river valley areas. With the upper ridge
centered just north of the region through the weekend, generally
ENE flow aloft will hold mid level moisture to the west and a dry
forecast is expected through the beginning of next week.

The upper ridge will retrograde back west Sunday/Monday as an upper
low digs into the Great Lakes region around the longwave trough
over the eastern CONUS. This pattern change would result in north or
northwesterly flow aloft which would likely decrease temperatures
and increase rain chances. For now, will leave downward trending
temperatures but keep extended dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  71  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             102  75 101  74  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               101  71 101  72  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 103  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  98  73  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  68  91  68  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   97  70  97  70  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   89  62  90  63  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  98  74  98  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   100  75 101  74  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/27



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