Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 220509
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR conditions are expected except there is a chance of
lower ceilings around 06z Wednesday when chances of showers and
thunderstorms increase. Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening but probabilities are too small to include
mention at this time. Winds will mostly be light out of the south.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

We will be in a fairly active weather pattern the next seven days
with rain chances increasing over most of the forecast area through
midweek, and a shot at cooler than normal temperatures potentially
through the remainder of August thereafter.  Southwesterly flow
aloft over the region will transition to northwesterly Tuesday as an
upper ridge over the southeastern CONUS shifts westward and takes up
temporary residence over northern Mexico, and southern Arizona and
New Mexico through Thursday.  At the same time, an upper trough will
expand over the eastern U.S., while a cutoff low off the California
coastline moves slowly eastward through the week.  We could see
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the western half of
the forecast area this afternoon/evening, if not over the Permian
Basin.  The main threat from these storms will be heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding, although a couple of storms could produce
strong winds, especially over the Permian Basin.

As the flow aloft transitions Tuesday, think the upper ridge will be
too strong across the Permian Basin for much convection, but
scattered showers and storms could occur over the higher terrain and
southeastern New Mexico.  However, the deepening ua trough over the
eastern U.S. will aid a cold front dropping to northeastern NM and
the Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon.  As a shortwave trough
translates southeastward around the strengthening ua ridge Tuesday
night, a complex of storms is expected to develop along and behind
the cold front, which will then move southward into the forecast
area late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  Therefore, rain chances
will continue on Wednesday with the frontal boundary as a low level
focus, and again Thursday, but probably moreso over the higher
terrain within an upslope flow regime.  Temperatures will not be
quite as hot Wednesday, especially over the northeastern third of
the forecast area, with below normal high temperatures areawide
Thursday.

The above mentioned cutoff low currently off the California coast
will progress far enough eastward Thursday/Friday to weaken the ua
ridge.  In addition, some progs are trying to bring remnants of a
tropical system up the Rio Grande and into west central Texas by
Saturday.  The resultant north to northeasterly flow aloft will
likely keep high temperatures at bay, that is below normal, but
later shifts will have to monitor the progress of the these features
since rain chances may need to be raised quite a bit if the tropical
system remnants make it this far west.  What appears most likely is
high temperatures will be below normal through the rest of the
extended, and there will be at least a slight chance of rain
areawide most days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  91  69  90 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       69  90  69  89 /  40  30  20  30
Dryden                         74  97  74  94 /  10  40  30  30
Fort Stockton                  71  94  70  90 /  30  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 65  85  64  81 /  30  30  20  40
Hobbs                          67  86  65  86 /  40  20  20  20
Marfa                          61  85  60  84 /  30  40  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           72  93  69  89 /  40  20  20  20
Odessa                         72  92  69  89 /  40  20  20  20
Wink                           71  95  70  92 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/


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