Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 222051 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...Correction
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
244 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

A powerful upper level storm system moving onto the northwest
Pacific coast will move east through the Rockies tonight and
track across the central Plains on Thursday. Windy to very windy
conditions are expected to develop late Thursday morning and
continue through Thursday afternoon across southeast New Mexico and
much of west Texas. Forecast soundings from the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF
guidance indicate the potential for significantly stronger winds
than forecast by MOS data (characteristic error). The stronger
sounding winds look more reasonable given 40 knot mix layer winds
depicted with strong downslope mixing and consensus 850 millibar
winds of 35 knots. For this reason will issue a High Wind Watch
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Upper Trans Pecos, and much
of the northern Permian Basin for Thursday afternoon. It looks
like it will be a closer call further south in the central Permian
Basin. Will let the mid shift decide to make the final call
regarding any wind advisories or warnings for these areas. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains Thursday and extend it into Friday as the winds aloft
remain stout over that region. It will also be windy in the Davis
Mountains, especially above 6000 feet late Thursday night and
Friday. Later shifts will need to monitor that area also for a
possible wind watch, warning or advisory.

Expecting a dust cloud to develop Thursday afternoon over the dry
lake beds of northern Mexico and southern New Mexico in the strong
gradient and advect over the forecast area late Thursday afternoon
and Thursday evening. Will mention patchy blowing dust in the
products. Near record high temperatures are also expected
Thursday, especially across west Texas where low level thermal
ridging, clear skies and downslope flow will prevail.

Beyond Thursday dry and strong flow aloft will continue through
the weekend and into the middle of next week. Except for
Saturday, high temperatures are expected to remain well above
normal. A couple of quick moving storm systems will probably bring
another bout of windy to very windy conditions area wide Sunday
and next Tuesday.


Critical/extremely fire wx conditions are materializing for Thur,
and even Fri, possibly Sun and Tue. Immediate concerns are of course
for Thu. Sustained west winds of 30-50 mph are expected across
the plains and mountains, respectively, high winds are possible in
the plains. High temps will be 15-20 degrees above normal and
with downslope winds min RHs will fall to near 10 pct in most
areas. This pattern is a particular concern as in the past this
type of system has resulted in the multiple occurrence of large
fires. SE NM and nrn PB are of the most concern. Fuels have been
drying and the grasses will certainly be dry, reflected by what we
think will be a very high to extreme fire danger. Red flag threat
indices will be 6-7 with a few as high as 8 expected which is
considered high end critical to extremely critical. Critical fire
wx is expected to continue Fri. We will hold off on issuance of a
watch for Fri now because there are already a large number of
headlines already out.


Big Spring                     51  86  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  80  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  90  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  88  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  68  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          47  77  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          41  78  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           51  85  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         51  85  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           47  84  41  68 /   0   0   0   0


NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM
     MST/ Thursday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 2 PM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe

     High Wind Watch Thursday afternoon for Andrews-Borden-Dawson-
     Gaines-Howard-Martin-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.



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