Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 271153
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
453 AM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

.DISCUSSION...Showers will intensify this morning again as an
upper level trough moves across the region with a unseasonably
cold air mass aloft. this will bring another round of higher
elevation snow that will cause possible slippery driving
conditions with road surface temperatures cooling overnight with
both the dark and snow showers. These showers will taper off this
afternoon as an upper level ridge builds into the region,
remaining in place through most of Tuesday. The next in the long
series of systems we have been experiencing this winter into the
spring moves in Wednesday morning as the ridge flattens. However,
the jet is now showing to be even farther north, near Vancouver
island, and the main bulk of the moisture doesn`t move into the
area until the right entrance region of the jet migrates south
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Snow levels will be high
with the increased southerly flow, although gradients are not
looking to increase enough to have any wind advisories. This
system shifts east as the deep upper level trough shifts east
Thursday. Thursday night an upper ridge builds into the region
again, bringing a break in the action into the weekend. Sven


&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z TAF CYCLE...Unstable conditions will result in
scattered precipitation this morning. VFR CIGS are expected to be
the predominate condition today. Could not rule out temporary MVFR
CIGS with partial mountain obscurations are possible in showers this
morning, but confidence is not high enough to put these conditions
in the TAF`s. Freezing levels are expected to start out around 4000
feet, then rising to around 5000 feet MSL this afternoon. Confidence
is higher for VFR conditions this afternoon through this evening as
the atmosphere becomes more stable. For now kept VFR CIGS in
tonight, but later shifts may need to evaluate the potential for low
clouds and patchy fog for west side valleys if there`s enough
clearing. -Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Monday 27 March 2017...West winds will
continue today as weak low pressure remains north of the waters, but
they will remain below advisory criteria. However higher west swell
will move into the waters late this morning through this afternoon
bringing higher seas. The higher seas should remain beyond 10 nm
from shore this morning, but as the higher swell comes in, the inner
waters will then get impacted by small craft conditions. Meanwhile
the outer waters could reach hazardous seas warning criteria with
seas expected to be very steep around 15 feet. Steep seas could
linger through at least Thursday morning. -Petrucelli


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for
     ORZ027-028.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas
from 11 AM this morning      to 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356.
 Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
 evening for PZZ370-376.      Small Craft Advisory for hazardous
seas until 11 AM PDT Thursday      for PZZ370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN



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