Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 202046
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A DRY, WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ANY CLOUD COVER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, BUT THE STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. A COLDER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
IN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH PW VALUES REMAIN WELL
BELOW ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH. A WEAKEN SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY, WHICH SHOULD MAINLY LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS OF AT LEAST 20-25 MPH EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRIED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST, USING
A COMBINATION OF PREVIOUS FORECAST, MOSGUIDE, AND WPC GUIDANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER PRECIP FREE.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
AN INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE, ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS DOES PAN OUT, TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN TO DEVELOP AS THERE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT WHICH WILL MELT ANY
PRECIPITATION AS IT FALLS BEFORE REFREEZING. FOR NOW, WE KEPT THIS
AS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER A DRYING OUT PERIOD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, MORE CONFIDENCE IS
BUILDING FOR A RAIN EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING
WHICH SHOULD KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, THERE
WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, SO ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID IN FORM.

THEN QUESTION RETURN FOR THE WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ONCE IT`S OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, THERE IS DIFFERENCES IN HOW
CLOSE THE LOW TRACKS TO THE COAST. THE GFS KEEPS IT FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY, THE ECMWF BRINGS IT CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THIS AFTERNOON...PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING NYC AREA IS
DISSIPATING SO JUST EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NOT AS CONFIDENT
ABOUT PEAK WIND GUSTS AS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL
THAN HAS BEEN REALIZED SO FAR TODAY. WE NUDGED PEAK GUSTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY FROM THE 15Z UPDATES.

TONIGHT...POSSIBLY ISOLATED RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM
UPSTATE NEW YORK/CONNECTICUT GETTING TO THE AIRPORTS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WHILE WE CARRIED GUSTS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, THIS COULD BE MORE SPORADIC, INTERMITTENT, ESPECIALLY
AT THE SMALLER TERMINALS/AIRPORTS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH JUST SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS AND PEAK
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. IN THE 30 HOUR TAF SITES, EXPECT MOST PEAK
WINDS TO OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A DECREASE OF WINDS AND SPEEDS
TOWARD EVENING (WE DROPPED THE GUSTINESS TOWARD THE END OF THOSE
TAFS).

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REDUCTION IS DUE TO PEAK GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REDUCTION IS DUE TO PEAK GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REDUCTION IS DUE TO PEAK GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REDUCTION IS DUE TO PEAK GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REDUCTION IS DUE TO PEAK GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REDUCTION IS DUE TO PEAK GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD BE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR. NW WINDS G20-30KT.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG WITH LLWS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE MAY PUSH THROUGH.

THEN A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. A RETURN TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IS LIKELY BY LATE
SATURDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
EVENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI
MARINE...ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...






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