Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 200840
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
340 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS EFFECTS STILL FELT
ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD MAINE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. SOME
MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB...AND MODELS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INCREASES BELOW THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. QPF
OUTPUT ALSO INDICATES VERY LIGHT PCPN CHANCES OVER THE FORKS
REGION/SE CT TOWARDS SUNSET...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY
LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL  MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES SPREAD WEST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST. THINKING IS THAT PCPN
TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES OVER SPRINKLES IN SPITE OF MOISTURE
LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED
LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES...THEN NVA BEHIND IT AND DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING
LIKELY PREVENTS PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO HEAD NORTH. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL LOW LEVEL
WINDS HERE VEER TO THE EAST AND AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN RESULT...BUT BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER... ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW STILL STRENGTHENS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON AN ENE FLOW...AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. POPS FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH BUT THEY ARE STILL REASONABLE...AND CURRENTLY DO NOT
HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO LOWER POPS FROM THE CURRENT LOW-END LIKELY.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE
RAIN...EXCEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND TUES MORNING
FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. MIGHT NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STARTING WITH TUESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN AFFECTS US CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
MODELS SHOW A STRONG PRIMARY LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A
WEAKER SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS IN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDS/WEDS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN JUST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR
THURSDAY A STRONG FETCH OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD BRING A RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING.

BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDS THRU THURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES
THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES WEDS AFTN/EVE...BUT STRONG GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH AN INVERSION.
STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE REALIZED DURING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
COURTESY OF BETTER MIXING. MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDS AFTN THRU THURS. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS ON WEDS IN THE 50S...AND WITH A MODERATE WSW
FLOW AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FT
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION.
EASTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING
BASED ON UPSTREAM DRYING SEEN ON SATELLITE...WHILE STRATUS MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF STRATUS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD BKN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

320-350 MAGNETIC WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT DURING TH DAY
INTO EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE
WINDS 10-20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10
KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT ON
THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA AND TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER CANADA ON THURSDAY...
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC





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