


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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152 FXUS61 KOKX 141906 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 306 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front approaching from the west will move through tonight and remain nearby as a Bermuda high remains anchored well offshore. The boundary will lift north by Thursday, with an attendant cold front following into late week. Behind it, high pressure will attempt to build in this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Points: * Flood Watch remains in effect from 2 PM to midnight for NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and SW CT, with scattered instances of flash flooding possible. A shortwave trough axis moving out of the the eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, and an accompanying sfc trough approaching eastern PA, will both slide eastward toward and across the region late today into tonight. An increasingly moist and unstable air mass (PW 2 inches and MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg with both still on the increase per SPC mesoanalysis/forecast) has already led to sct showers/tstms with heavy downpours mostly north of NYC, and isolated amts over an inch in spots. An increasingly widespread threat of torrential downpours from tstm activity should materialize later today into this evening as the trough to the west approaches, with 2+"/hr rainfall rates possible as MLCAPE increases to 1500-20 J/kg, PW increases closer to 2.25 inches, a deep warm cloud layer up to 15 kft, and weak SW steering flow. Highest coverage/confidence in this activity remains across NE NJ and adjacent parts of the lower Hudson Valley, where 12Z HREF now forecasts a 50% chance of 3+ inches of rain in 3 hours. A 30% chance of 3 inches in 3 hours now extends eastward into NYC and the rest of the lower Hudson Valley. Latest HRRR suggests the most likely time frame for the heaviest rainfall should be from 22Z-02Z. Weak low level shear/helicity profiles and weak LLJ appear to be a limitation for sustained updraft and backbuilding storms. Rainfall of 2-3 inches and locally up to 5 inches possible from Rockland/Westchester southward into NE NJ. For the west of the watch area, amounts of 1-2 inches and locally over 3 inches possible. Most of this could fall in as little as a 3-hr period. Isolated strong to severe wet downbursts are also possible, more so NW of NYC where instability will be maximized. The trough will slowly slides east overnight, with convective coverage and intensity on the wane. Seasonably warm and very muggy conditions will prevail through tonight, with low temps from the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s invof NYC. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AM showers/tstms still possible Tue morning from NYC metro east with the front still in the vicinity, then a chance for late day showers/tstms from NYC north/west in the afternoon with a subtle sfc trough still in the vicinity and a mid level shortwave trough approaching. This activity should be on the weaker side with instability much more limited and wind fields aloft weak. Of more concern will be increasing heat/humidity. High temps on Tue should reach the upper 80s/lower 90s from NYC north/west, with mid 80s elsewhere. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s this could yield heat index values of 95-99 for much of NE NJ and also parts of the lower Hudson Valley and the CT river valley. A short fused heat advisory might be needed for some or all of these areas. Low temps Tue night should range once again from the upper 60s well inland, to the mid 70s in the NYC metro area and western Long Island. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Points: * Increasing likelihood for heat indices to exceed 95F Wednesday through Friday across much of the region. * Unsettled pattern with chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms into late week. The weakening frontal boundary lingers nearby into midweek as sprawling high pressure remains anchored well out in the Atlantic. SW flow helps usher in additional warm, moist air, and temperatures nudge upwards. While nothing remarkable for mid July, temperatures Wed through Fri likely top the upper 80s to lower 90s for most, and with dew pts progged at least into the upper 60s and lower 70s, heat indices should achieve mid to upper 90s, with the hottest locales exceeding 100F. Heat headlines will likely be needed as we move closer. One caveat may be the unsettled pattern, with showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon through late week with nearby frontal boundaries, though the overall severe risk appears low. However, deep layer moisture should keep PWATs near or above 2 inches, and with it, the potential for higher rainfall rates with any convective activity. Conditions potentially begin to settle into at least the start of the weekend behind a cold fropa, as high pressure attempts to build in from the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front settles over the terminals this afternoon and evening, gradually sinking to the south tonight. Mainly VFR this afternoon with lingering MVFR ceilings across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Showers and thunderstorms will continue expanding in coverage this afternoon, especially from NYC terminals on north and west. Showers/thunderstorms this evening slowly push east and weaken, with a few showers lingering overnight. Torrential downpours with MVFR/IFR conditions possible in any shower/thunderstorm. Low confidence flight category forecast tonight into early Tuesday, but MVFR conditions possible at all terminals. IFR also possible, especially across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Conditions should become VFR Tuesday morning. S-SE winds around 10 kt this afternoon. Winds will diminish tonight then become SW-S under 10 kt Tuesday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Wind speeds may be a few kt higher at times through 21z. Amendments for timing of showers and thunderstorms possible. Low confidence flight category forecast tonight/early Tuesday morning. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday Afternoon-Night: VFR during the afternoon/evening with a chance of a shower/thunderstorm. MVFR or lower possible, especially east of NYC metro at night. Wednesday-Friday: MVFR or lower in any afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... SW flow increasing to over 15 kt could build seas close to 5 ft on the outer ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet Thu night. Otherwise, afternoon/evening showers/tstms through the period could produce locally higher winds/seas at times. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood Watch remains in effect from 2 PM to midnight for NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and SW CT. A widespread 2-3 inches of rainfall is likely across NE NJ and adjacent portions of the lower Hudson Valley, where the most persistent/widespread convection is likely based on predicted synoptic/mesoscale environment and CAM output. A widespread 1-2 inches of rain is likely with localized rainfall totals of up to 3 inches possible for the rest of the lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and SW CT. Most of the above could fall in as little as a 3-hr period. Rainfall rates of over 2 inches per hour are possible with stronger and/or repeat convection, which could cause localized instances of severe flooding. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The rip current risk is low through Tuesday, with a 10 kt or less onshore flow and weakening S-SE swell. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005-006-009. NY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-176-178. NJ...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/DR NEAR TERM...BG SHORT TERM...BG LONG TERM...DR AVIATION...DS MARINE...BG/DR HYDROLOGY...BG/DR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...