Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 041145
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
745 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY DAY...THOUGH POP UP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT BEING IN THE AREA. NCAR ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH FOCUS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE
KEPT POPS AT ISOLATED ALL LOCATIONS AS HRRR POPS SOME CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND...THE CANADIAN HAS SOME OVER NYC AND NCEP
HIRES ARW HAS SOME OVER LONG ISLAND.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS. HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE NY/NJ METRO.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. DRY...LESS HUMID AND
NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY/ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS ENERGY WILL BE KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE LATEST 00Z MODELS OFFER SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL
BE LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION...BUT A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE 00Z GFS IS THE FLATEST AND SLOWEST AS IT DOES NOT REALLY DEVELOP
THE LOW UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY AMPLIFIES
BEHIND THE MAIN ONE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY
AND DEVELOPS THE LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND MOVES IT
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z
GEFS ARE A BIT FASTER...WITH THE MEAN LOW TRACK AND TIMING SIMILAR
TO THE 00Z ECMWF.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. AS TIMING BECOMES CLEARER...EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TIMING OF POPS.

THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING
THE PERIOD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 18Z...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF COVERAGE AND TIMING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KT INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS. EXPECT GUSTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20 KT RANGE.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 10 KT OR LESS. TERMINALS OUTSIDE
OF NYC...MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF
GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR
TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR
TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR
TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR
TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF
GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TONIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON SATURDAY
ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT DO
DEVELOPS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...


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