Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 231939
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND PASS OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MOST MESO-SCALE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 20Z-00Z.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING...WHICH COULD ADD
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
INTO A MORE STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. EXPECT A STRATIFORM RAIN...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY
NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z...WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST.

WILL TEMPO TSRA FROM 00-04Z AND CARRY A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA FROM
04-08Z. WILL EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER...IN
HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBY. CAN ALSO EXPECT BRIEF GUSTS TO 30 KT IN
TSRA.

THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END BY 08Z...AND CONDS WILL LIFT TO
VFR.

SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 10-20 KT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN VEER TO THE WSW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 8-12 KT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25 KT WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE
21-23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25 KT WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE
21-23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
15-20 KT WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE
21-23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SCT SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE 21-23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SCT SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE 21-23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25 KT WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHRA/TSTM POSSIBLE
23-03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON....VFR WITH NORTH WINDS 8-12 KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM
MAINLY NW OF NYC.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME.
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM SANDY HOOK
NJ EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS
FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT INCREASES TO AROUND 2 INCHES...BASED ON A SLOW MEAN
FLOW OF AROUND 15 KNOTS...A FEW STORMS MIGHT MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREA AND PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1
INCH.

WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN.
BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE TIMING AND
AMOUNTS...THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/FIG
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...BC/FIG





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