Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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665
FXUS61 KOKX 140525
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY INTO THE ATLANTIC
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS LOW
TRAVELS TO NEAR OR OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NEXT
WEEK...ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST SOME REAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS WITH THIS UPDATE.
THUS FAR...ISP HAS BROKEN ITS RECORD LOW FOR FEB 13 AT 4
DEGREES...AND LGA HAS TIED AT 8 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONLY OTHER RECORD IN
JEOPARDY IS EWR AT 4 DEGREES.

ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA TNGT. PW/S DROP
TO BLW 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...SO WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP GOING RIGHT THRU THE NGT.
GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE INTO SUN MRNG. NO CHANGES TO THE
WIND CHILL PRODUCTS TNGT...ALTHOUGH THE WRNG APPEARS TO BE MRGNL
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY SUN NGT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS THRU THE DAY...THEN LGT AND VRB FLOW
OVERNIGHT. CLR SKIES DURING THE DAY...THEN HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD...IF THEY DO INDEED DEVELOP...HELP
TO LIMIT LOW TEMPS. STILL WENT BLW GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS COMBATING THE PULL TOWARDS CLIMO. DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE HIGH...SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW LATE COULD
ALLOW TEMPS AT THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE LI COAST...TO RISE
BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CURRENT LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OVER MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL REGION BY TUESDAY BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ITS
PVA WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND
COULD RESULT IN A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES TOTAL. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS THOUGH AND PARAMETERS SUCH AS WET BULB
COOLING...SE FLOW...AND THE VORTICITY ADVECTION AS WELL AS TIMING
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.

INITIALLY MONDAY...VERY COLD WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THESE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS ARE INDICATING
THIS WOULD OCCUR DURING MONDAY EVENING. SO...THIS BEARS MONITORING
FOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL TRENDS IN THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.

MODELS HAVE A GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SUBSTANTIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION
GETTING DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL REGIONS. THE LOW DEVELOPS
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION GETTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LOW
THEN MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ECMWF
IS WELL WEST WITH THE LOW COMPARED TO GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN
AND WOULD THEREFORE BE THE MOST WARM OF THE SOLUTIONS.
HENCE...MORE RAIN WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS WELL. TOOK A BLEND OF
THIS GUIDANCE AND ESSENTIALLY THE COASTAL ZONES WILL HAVE MAINLY
RAIN BY LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. FARTHER INTERIOR...SE
FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER AND WILL BE BLOCKED BY HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEREFORE...THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER AND WILL
TAKE LONGER TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING. MONDAY NIGHT...THESE
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION AS WARMER AIR ALOFT TRANSITIONS
THE PRECIPITATION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH SFC TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW FREEZING.

THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR REACHING ANY SORT
OF WARNING/WATCH CRITERIA. SEE HYDRO SECTION REGARDING FLOOD
POTENTIAL AND RAIN AMOUNTS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LINGERING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS MAIN LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT WITH ITS PVA.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW AND
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP DOWN THE NEXT 24H. GUSTS
25-30KT TO START...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15-20KT BY AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. GUSTS LIKELY LOST BY MID AFTERNOON. DIRECTION MAINLY AT OR
JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY DEVELOPS FROM W TO E LATE
MORNING/INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. S WIND
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING. A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO
RAIN AT S TERMINALS...AND SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. LLWS POSSIBLE. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
.TUESDAY...ANY LINGERING WINTRY MIX N TERMINALS CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN TAPERING OFF LATE. IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE. LLWS IN THE AM...THEN NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SPOTTY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER. W-NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN MRNG. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE DAY...WITH ALL AREAS ACTUALLY BLW SCA
LVLS SUN NGT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCA TO GALE
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GALES TREND TO SCA WINDS
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS TREND BELOW SCA
THEREAFTER BUT SCA OCEAN SEAS REMAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS FORECAST WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS...THIS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND FOR
THESE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHILE MORE PRECIP WILL RELATIVELY
BE IN THE FROZEN FORM MAKING FOR LESS RAIN...THE RAIN ADDED WITH
SNOW MELT COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINOR AT THIS POINT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS WITH THE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD BENCHMARKS COULD BE MET ACROSS MOST TIDAL GAUGES. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR
FLOOD THRESHOLDS TO BE REACHED...AND 3 TO 3 1/2 FT FOR MODERATE
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD LOW(YEAR)/FCST LOW BY MIDNIGHT FOR 2/13

CENTRAL PARK.....-1 (1914)  /  5
LAGUARDIA.........8 (1979)  /  6
KENNEDY...........0 (1967)  /  6
ISLIP.............9 (2015)  /  2
NEWARK............4 (1979)  /  5
BRIDGEPORT.......-2 (1967)  /  1

STATION......RECORD LOW(YEAR)/FCST LOW FOR 2/14

CENTRAL PARK.....2 (1916)  /  2
LAGUARDIA........1 (1979)  /  3
KENNEDY..........4 (1979)  /  3
ISLIP............7 (2015)  /  1
NEWARK...........0 (1979)  /  2
BRIDGEPORT.......3 (2015*) / -1

STATION......RECORD LOW MAXIMUM(YEAR)/FCST HIGH FOR 2/14

CENTRAL PARK....17 (1979) / 15
LAGUARDIA.......15 (1979) / 16
KENNEDY.........17 (1979) / 17
ISLIP...........26 (1987) / 15
NEWARK..........15 (1979) / 16
BRIDGEPORT......18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ072>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ067>071.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR ANZ338.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ335-338.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



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