Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 241747
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
147 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves across the region today, with an unsettled
weather pattern continuing through the weekend and into the
middle of next week. The warm front north of the region
retrogrades back into the region as a back door cold front
Saturday night and will be west of the area Sunday. The front
returns to the region Sunday night into Monday and then passes
east of the region Monday night. Another system approaches
Tuesday and moves across Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
High pressure returns thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar indicates showers were tracking southeastward through the
area, and at least some measurable is likely for most of the
area. The forecast has been updated accordingly.

Temperatures are well above freezing with any sleet signatures
on radar now remaining north of the forecast area. As a result,
only rain has been forecast.

As the mid level energy exists the region late this afternoon,
the rain will end. The back edge shows up on radar approaching
Port Jervis at 17Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Any precipitation will quickly taper off by evening as the short
wave moves east of the area and the warm front moves to the
north. Dry conditions will be short-lived overnight. By
morning, an upper low approaches from the west, increasing
forcing for ascent, and in combination with a back door cold
front subsequently increases precipitation chances through
Saturday evening.

Temperatures tonight will be nearly steady as warm advection
continues through the night amidst southwesterly flow. By
Saturday afternoon temperatures will finally be close to
climatological normals, though a cooling trend will be noted
late in the day from northeast to southwest as the back door
cold front begins to move through.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overall, an increasingly maritime airmass will be getting entrained
into the region from a persistent easterly flow. Rain will
ultimately be intermittent with some drizzle from time to time for
the remainder of the weekend. Not much of a diurnal temperature
range expected for the remainder of the weekend either. Patchy
fog is expected Saturday night through Sunday evening as
boundary layer becomes saturated from the continuous easterly
flow.

Rain continues Monday with some more synoptic forcing ahead of the
shortwave and surface frontal system moving in. The chances for rain
lower Monday night as these aforementioned features move east of the
region. Chances for rain are slow to drop off because of increasing
uncertainty in the model precipitation fields this timeframe. Rain
could linger longer early next week if the frontal system is slower.

Aloft, there will be a flattening ridge with the polar jet moving
farther north of the region Saturday night. The flattening ridge
axis moves across on Sunday. An embedded shortwave on the back end
of the ridge approaches Sunday night and moves across Monday. Brief
ridging then takes place Monday night into Tuesday. There will be
another shortwave moving across Tuesday night. A ridge to the west
then starts to build in thereafter for midweek.

Starting Saturday night, the surface features to note will be a
front retrograding southwest within the region and strengthening
high pressure building southeast from Quebec into Maine. The front
is a back door cold front. On Sunday, the high pressure area will be
moving into the Gulf of Maine and easterly flow will keep a cool
marine airmass. The front moves east back into the area Sunday night
into Monday with a weak low developing along the front. The flow
becomes more southerly. The front and low along it move east of the
region Monday night. Another frontal system approaches Tuesday
afternoon and moves across Tuesday night. High pressure starts to
build in thereafter for midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Potential for some light precipitation early this afternoon...but
otherwise dry. A backdoor cold front will cross the region
Saturday.

Mainly VFR through late tonight but there`s a low chance of
MVFR or lower at coastal terminals late. By midday Saturday,
the front approaches and then passes through with low clouds and
some drizzle developing. Conditions deteriorating to MVFR and
then IFR during the midday and afternoon hours. LIFR is
possible.

S-SSW winds this afternoon 10-20 kt with Gusts to 25 kt. Good
chance of gusts to near 30 kt at KISP and KJFK. Winds diminish
overnight. On Saturday, winds near 15 kt veer to NW and then NE
Saturday afternoon as the front moves through.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight.
High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday.
Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed
of the front.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight.
High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday.
Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed
of the front.

KEWR TAF Comments:Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight.
High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday.
Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed
of the front.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight.
High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday.
Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed
of the front.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight.
High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday.
Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed
of the front.

KISP TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight.
High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind
shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of
the front.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday afternoon-Monday...MVFR/IFR probable in stratus,
possibly LIFR.
.Monday night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas increase this afternoon with the pressure gradient
tightening as high pressure moves east and an area of low pressure
approaches from the northwest. Expecting all but NY Harbor to see
SCA conds in the afternoon, with advisory conds continuing into the
night for the ocean, Eastern Sound and Eastern Bays. Isolated gusts
to 35 KT are possible east of Moriches Inlet for a brief period this
afternoon, though will likely not be widespread enough for a Gale
Warning. Lingering seas around 5 ft are possible on the ocean
waters through Saturday afternoon.

Initially Saturday evening features sub SCA conditions across the
waters. However, SCA conditions resume for the ocean waters late
Saturday night lasting through much of the remainder of the weekend
for the ocean with easterly flow increasing. Other waters stay below
SCA.

Sub SCA conditions return Monday and Monday night and stay that way
for non-ocean waters through Tuesday. The ocean will have a return
to SCA conditions Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Model run accumulation of rain could reach 0.75 to 1.5 inches with
locally higher amounts possible for the period Saturday through
early next week. This is over a long enough time period to not
have too much excessive runoff. Therefore, not expecting
flooding and there are no hydrologic concerns at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ330-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JM
NEAR TERM...12
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MD/JM
HYDROLOGY...MD/JM


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