Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 262057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE YET
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
HANG ON TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
MID MOISTURE COULD CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
DURING THE DAY WITH BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.
TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DON`T CHANGE ALL THAT
MUCH...SO HIGHS PROBABLY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...GENERALLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS THEN DIMINISHES FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
TURNING CLEAR AND REMAINING COLD AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS 10-15
IN THE CITY WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SUBURBS. SOME NORTHERN
SUBURBS COULD SEE BELOW ZERO LOWS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FINALLY SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN
WITH A SPLIT CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AT
THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES SAT INTO SUN. A NORTHERN BRANCH AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF
THEN SENDS A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE TUE...AND THEN ANOTHER
SLOWER MID WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIMING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GGEM MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE GFS.

THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A WARMUP...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD. SAT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS STILL ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS POINT TOWARD THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN REESTABLISHING A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
DEEPENING TROF ACROSS THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD MEAN
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR.

AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEMS...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES. PREFERENCE WAS TOWARD THE COLDER GFS AND
GGEM. THE MID WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS TO START AS SNOW TUE AFT/EVE...
THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FRONTAL WAVES TO IMPACT THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GGEM ARE
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KLGA THROUGH AROUND 22Z...IT SHOULD BE
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

N-NE WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT
OUT OF THE N-NW BY MID-LATE MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 360-040 TRUE
(010-050 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 340-050 TRUE
(350-060 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN. SE-S WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN...A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN S
AND -SN TO A WINTRY MIX N. LLWS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL HELP CREATE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND
KEEP SEAS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FT FOR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS...COULD STILL GUSTS OVER 25 KT. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT AS A GENERAL SCA VS A SCA FOR HAZ
SEAS. THE REST OF THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SUB-SCA CONDS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






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