Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 232000
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
200 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

A weak cold front has made passage over the area, and will bring a
temporary reprieve from continual rain. Next, we`ll see a warm
front take shape, extending from east Tx into the lower Ms valley,
and it will lift northward tonight across our area. It will bring
with it all the juicy air from down there, and soup us up again
with increasing rain chances. As the atmospheric profile warms, so
too will it destabilize, and thunderstorms capable of heavy
rain will enter the equation. Another 1/2 inch to 3/4 inches is
expected on average, mainly between 06z-12z, with peaks across
SEMO, and along/just north of the Ohio river. PW`s are at/near
their seasonal peakings, so the good rains/potential for soaking
rains will only aggravate ongoing flooding as well as cause
additional problems. Winds right off the surface really pick up
tmrw morning, and once we warm sector, we`ll have a breezy
southerly wind with some gusts thru the day. Showers will become a
little more off and on from mid morning to early afternoon.

During the peak heating hours, we see the lower profile steepen,
with temps reaching into the 70s in our southeast, and dew points
into the 60s across our south and climbing thru the 50s across the
north. Dynamical energy will be topping out by late pm/early
evening (around/shortly after 00Z Sun), as the upper jet
interaction begins with the approaching trof/front. We should be
able to see the approaching cold front begin to fire thunderstorms
to our south and west, across southern Arkansas, and then track it
as they lift northeastward toward/into our area. Our SEMO/far
swky/far swil ptn of the FA is in peak position for significant
svr wx occurring within the broader enhanced risk zone, as
outlooked by SPC on the latest day2. This 2nd round, the focus,
while shifting to a linger convective threat with damaging wind
and tornado potential, will also contain a locally heavy rain
threat that will really hit already wet grounds hard/pose
potential for additional flooding and flash flooding. Another 1
to 2 inches could fall during this time, with locally higher
amounts possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday Night)
Issued at 159 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

The forecast signal remains fairly consistent with the weather
system next week. Dry conditions are expected to solidly persist
from Sunday through the daytime hours on Tuesday.

The last couple of model runs have rocketed the upper low and
surface wind gradient further to the north, so winds should
diminish very early over southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana,
and northwest Kentucky early Sunday.

Seasonable high temperatures in the middle 50s will dominate most
of next week, with warm air advection moving temperatures 5 to 10
degrees on Monday and Tuesday.

Although the closed northeastward tilted low/trough has been
slowly drifting northeast in the last couple of model runs of the
GFS guidance, placing the mean warm frontal boundary from
southwest Kansas to southern Wisconsin Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Most of the shower and scattered thunderstorm activity
will be focused either 1) in the warm advection upglide zone in
the warm sector, or 2) within prefrontal trough axis ahead of the
cold front as it moves into southern Iowa by Wednesday night.

There may be the potential for some strong to locally severe
storms Wednesday night over part of the WFO PAH forecast area.
Timing and potential will variable until we get further detail
with later models runs, however, the intense baroclinic nature and
wind fields, as well as ample warm air advection ahead of the
surface low on Wednesday. Although the potential may not be the
same, it is interesting that it will be close to the one year
anniversary of the sever weather episode of February 28th-March
1st of 2017.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1237 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

While occasional BINOVC this pm and evening could lead to
restriction free flight bases at times, any such breaks will
likewise induce into another clouding over into restricted base
range. So the potential for prolonged restriction free bases is
minimal. We tried to hit an early window though, where and when
it is most likely. After nightfall, we`ll see the warm front lift
north and bases will again lower/with deteriorating flight
conditions, particularly after midnight. Shower chances will
increase toward morning, and vsbys will also restrict. These MVFR
to at times IFR cigs/vsbys restrictions look to carry over into
the planning period tmrw morning, during which time all terminals
will warm sector as southerlies kick in and become gusty at times.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...Smith



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