Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
FXUS66 KPDT 171658
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
850 AM PST Tue Jan 17 2017
.UPDATE...High winds are occurring at Ladd Canyon and Union. Wind
advisory for Grande Ronde Valley upgraded to a warning. Expect
the strongest winds tonight. Stronger winds will spread to the
rest of the Grande Ronde Valley this evening.
We are still evaluating winter highlights. Expect to make some
changes. Expect highest pops this evening.
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. Radar indicates a slight chance of light snow
or freezing rain moving across the taf sites through about 20z.
Otherwise ceilings bkn-ovc 040-090 with areas of 3-6sm br today. A
more steady mixed precipitation moves in late afternoon or early
evening between 23z and 04z. This will likely be light snow, sleet
and freezing rain. Mixed precipitation will change over to rain
quickly at rdm bdn then pdt alw as south winds increase. Ykm psc dls
will be slower to change over. 94
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM PST Tue Jan 17 2017/
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...A complex weather scenario
is leading to a tricky forecast for the next 36 hours. A Pacific
weather system is riding over a ridge and flattening it. Radar shows
showers reaching the Washington Cascade Crest already. An advance
initial wave will move through the northern portion of the area this
morning with the main thrust of precipitation in the afternoon and
tonight. This system is warm aloft, but the question is how fast
will the cold air at the surface be scoured out allowing
temperatures to warm above freezing. Believe it will take longer
than model guidance suggests as it usually too fast in doing so.
This means much of the northern half of the area will have a
freezing rain and sleet event through most of tonight before
temperatures finally warm up. Temperatures today will remain in the
mid to upper 20s in the Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys along
with the Columbia Gorge and east of the Blue Mountains. The rest of
the area, including Central Oregon will rise to the lower to mid 30s
this afternoon and have mainly snow and rain. Precipitation will be
just a few hundredths of an inch today. This evening precipitation
will start to increase with around a tenth of an inch in the lower
elevations and up to a quarter inch in the cascades. Overnight
precipitation will increase to 1 to 2 tenths of an inch in the lower
elevations with up to a half inch in the mountains. Not all of this
will be freezing rain as there will also be sleet and temperatures
will warm through the night and at some point will switch over to
rain. Will likely upgrade the current watches to winter weather
advisories but for the Columbia Gorge and perhaps the Washington
Basin am thinking to raise it to an ice storm warning but am still
working out details. Overnight lows tonight will be in the lower to
mid 30s in Central and North Central Oregon and in the 20s in the
rest of the area. However, if southerly 15 to 20 mph winds pick up
in the Blue Mountain foothills then temperatures should rise and
precipitation could turn to rain by late in the evening. Southerly
winds will continue on Wednesday and that will raise temperatures to
the upper 30s to mid 40s and end the freezing rain. A possible
exception is the Columbia Gorge which is sheltered from south winds
and will be the last to warm up. The current wind advisory in the
Grande Ronde Valley looks good and no changes will be made. Perry
LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday. Wednesday night
starts off with a good chance of rain as the upper low moves north
along the west coast of Washington with a trough of low pressure
reaching the coast by Thursday morning. This trough will cross the
region Thursday and Thursday night and with the westerly flow will
look for decreasing precipitation chances across the lower basin
areas. The weather pattern remains active through weekend and into
early next week as a couple of low pressure system moves north along
the coast with several bands of moisture to move through during the
weekend and into Monday. Snow levels will be high( 4500-5000 feet)
Wednesday night and remain around 3000-3500 feet through Friday
before cooler air pushes them back down near 1500-2000 feet through
the weekend. 93
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 29 27 41 37 / 20 90 100 90
ALW 30 28 43 39 / 20 90 100 100
PSC 27 25 40 36 / 30 90 80 70
YKM 28 24 38 31 / 60 90 80 60
HRI 26 24 39 36 / 20 90 90 70
ELN 26 23 35 30 / 70 90 80 60
RDM 36 34 41 30 / 30 70 70 60
LGD 27 25 35 32 / 10 90 90 90
GCD 34 32 39 35 / 10 90 90 70
DLS 33 31 41 37 / 50 90 90 70
OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ041-
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ510.
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ041.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Wednesday for ORZ049-050.
High Wind Warning until 7 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ049.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Thursday for
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ044-507-
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for WAZ024-
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM PST Wednesday for WAZ024.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for WAZ026-027-
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for WAZ028-029.
Ice Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for WAZ520.