Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 201456
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1056 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONGER EFFECT OF OCEAN-COOLED AIR
TEMPERATURES DUE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON YESTERDAY`S OBSERVATIONS AT THE BUOYS,
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED MARINE AREA AIR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH SUGGESTED HIGHER WAVES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, SO MARINE UPDATE RAISED SEAS BY 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE OCEAN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST RECENT TAF UPDATES SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
CREATED A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH HAVE SHOWN HIGHER SEAS
IN ALL BUT OUR NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE, SO SEAS WERE INCREASED IN
THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL THE WATERS WITH
HIGHEST SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES, WHERE WAVES MAY
APPROACH 9 FEET.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD. SCA MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY FOR SOME MARINE ZONES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA/SZATKOWSKI





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