Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 270050
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
150 PM SST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE MONSOONAL TO THE
NORTHWEST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ASCAT AND TRMM SWATHES REVEAL
HEAVY RAINFALLS AND VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MONSOONAL TROUGH. RAOB FROM THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE OVER THE ISLANDS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE MONSOONAL TROUGH TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST OF SAVAII ON TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER SAVAII AND UPOLU ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE INTENSIFYING.
THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND INTENSIFY WHILE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THEREFORE...EXPECT WET WEATHER AND INCREASING WINDS
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT TUTUILA AND MANUA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
THE LOW MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO STRONG AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE ISLANDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE MONSOONAL AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS. THEREFORE...WET WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IN THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE WATCH ANALYSIS REVEALS ROUGHS SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BEFORE RISING 9 TO
12 FT ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO ELEVATE TO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS OF 13 TO 15 FT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA. AS THE LOW DESCENDS FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING LEVELS ON FRIDAY
MORNING. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL WATERS AND
SHORELINES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

&&

$$

MALALA










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